Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[salver2] 07/1/2021 21:57

There’s talk in the French press ( Les Echos) that the French insurer Macif are lining up a bid for more than 3 bn euros in the next week or two - or that’s what I think in my dodgy French ! As to the value of the whole of aAviva I got close to6.50 pounds a share but I don’t have the skills of Cjac or WBA

[cjac39] 07/1/2021 20:51

how about this as a top end sotp. maybe its 50% lower but not fanciful. i wrote this for another investor who was curious.

UK Annuities as an open book £10+bln
UK Heritage £1.2-1.5bln
UK protection £1.6-2bln (op p £200mln)
UK Savings £2bln (op p £220+platform assets of £30bln or so.)
AGI £2bln (really no idea about this. £350bln AUM but only makes £100 odd pa and much of AUM is inhouse and they will lose quite some on Eur Life sale. So say 1% of £200bln)

Disposed businesses £8bln best case – own funds eur life is £6bln.

UK GI £4-5bln based off Direct Line comp – av GI is bigger but less profitable

Ireland Life £0.8-1 based off op profit £100mln
Canada GI £1.5bln –difficult to say – awful 2017, 2018, 2019 made £180mln op p off £3bln NWP but then covid hit hard. If its steady state £200mln off £3bln then should be £2bln)

So in aggregate best case £33bln less debt £9bln or £24bln which is c2x share price.

[cassini] 07/1/2021 20:22

IMB dividend 137.7p.
Price at close today 1638p.
Yield is 8.4%.
It no doubt was 8.5% earlier on today.

[spud] 07/1/2021 19:58

Rob - I'm referring to IMB not AV. spud

[father jack1] 07/1/2021 18:52

IMB refers to Imperial Brands. Reckon market sentiment would be greatly enhanced if growth in the dividend was centred on mid single digit growth as opposed to low single digit.

[ianood] 07/1/2021 18:50

Doesn't IMB pay quarterly?

[1robbob] 07/1/2021 18:34

Spud...how do you get 8.4%....that is wrong

AB announced the Interim for 2020 at 7.0p and at that time indicated
that the Final for 2020 would be 14p
Thus a total dividend for the Trading Year 2020 will be 21p @ 350p = 6.0% yield

She also stated that 21p would be the basis for the future with annual increases in
the mid to low single digits

[spud] 07/1/2021 18:20

Rob, IMB is currently paying 8.4% and is well covered. spud

[whatsup32] 07/1/2021 17:52

GSK yields nearly 6% but Av. has better short term prospects

[1robbob] 07/1/2021 17:39

Aviva still yields 6% at 350p
...the final dividend alone paid on 14th May is a 4% return
Where else are these returns available

Sell at your peril !!!!

[skinny] 07/1/2021 16:45

It actually closed @349.90p - but I get your drift :-)

[skinny] 07/1/2021 09:55

We can but hope! 🙄

[makinbuks] 07/1/2021 09:53

Which at long last may actually be happening

[skinny] 07/1/2021 09:08

:-)

They've hardly set the world alight - I bought LGEN at about the same time +175%.

[uppompeii] 07/1/2021 09:02

New buyer then?I have some from GA days...

[skinny] 07/1/2021 08:48

Post 6490 - certainly not - I still have some that I bought in 2010 - currently -18%.

[carpingtris] 07/1/2021 08:40

That's why PI's should be looking to rotate out of FAANGS and into other areas to take some of the heat out of them.

There is more to shares that just FAANGS but I guess most are just too lazy to look.

Passive funds/investing doesn't help.

[father jack1] 07/1/2021 07:53

Interesting piece in the Guardian yesterday about the stock market bubble building on Wall Street. Crazy that the market cap of Tesla amounts to $1.25m per car sold compared to $9000 per car sold for General Motors. At least we can't say that Aviva is excessively overvalued!

[salver2] 06/1/2021 23:58

Should a director be able to buy shares with parts of Avivas businesses under offer as it were?

[whatsup32] 06/1/2021 20:00

Yes, I ended up on his by mistake once.

Echo was deafening.

[spud] 06/1/2021 19:55

Imagining, Chinese investor doesn't post on this thread. He's started his own and as far as I can see, spends most of his time talking to himself! Out of 80 odd posts, 70 odd are his!spud

[wba1] 06/1/2021 19:42

imagining; whilst I agree with your general point, the comparison with RSA is false. Most of the RSA value is in its Scandi operations, as shown by the breakdown of the takeover money. I had seen the performance of their Scandi operations in the past and had discounted it as something which was either going to correct to more normal profitability or, worse, would turn out to have a black hole like their Irish operation. It seems I was wrong. Aviva has nothing remotely like the RSA Scandi performance in any subsidiary and that is why they have attracted the offer. A p/e of 10-12 would be very satisfactory for Aviva.

[imagining] 06/1/2021 19:19

No disrespect chineseinvestor,but I can't understand why you will sell just south of 400p. This is currently on a p/e of 6.3 so if the restructuring of the business goes according to plan, there's every likelihood of the share price doubling in value(especially if the core businesses are expanded with some of the proceeds of the non-core sales). RSA are currently on a p/e of 22 and enjoy far less diversity being a pure GI play.