Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[cjac39] 22/12/2020 20:43

dr b - you delightfully side stepped the data with frankly glib references to other data. however i agree entirely lets park this now. whether or not this has some further governmental short term impacts its also clear its nearly finished thankfully. given peak1 infected uk in 8 weeks , if you believe the nonsense about mutant strain being 2x infective then you are agreeing it will take 4 weeks to herd immunity and no-one needs a vaccine.

[dr biotech] 22/12/2020 20:09

Yeah I managed to spend 3 days in hospital for that one. I had just had a tooth capped in the morning (cricket again) when in the evening I broke and dislocated my finger, whilst dropping a catch. It took several failed attempts by some nurses to put the dislocation back in until this huge front row forward of consultant almost pulled my finger off to put it back in. In doing so he split the blister in my finger and as I had a wound next to a break it had to be cleaned under general anaesthetic. Not my greatest day.

[dr biotech] 22/12/2020 16:58

I think some of those covid stats are quite selective, I’m pretty sure Luton for example was a high lockdown area but isn’t showing, and I’d have to look at previous years to see the correlations that they are claiming for this year.

For sure Covid deaths include those that would have died anyway, but also less flu deaths. Cancer deaths may also rise over the next few years as later diagnosis hits home. What I would say is Cases in lightly lockdown countries/states (Sweden/US) or countries with poor healthcare systems (India/Iran/others) are seeing cases surge with no herd immunity even though they have already suffered quite a lot. It seems that the countries that lockdown hard and properly (NZ/Aus/China) have had the best outcomes. Anyway let’s leave this for another forum.

I used to play Cricket until a couple of years ago, ended in A&E twice with broken fingers. Second time was an evening match, in the waiting area there were four of us (oddly enough all graduates) with sports injuries, and of the other 20 or so most were there for alcohol related injuries. Not sure what the effects of lockdown are on these.

[wskill] 22/12/2020 15:39

Yes not another golden ticket or Friends Provident the type of deal synonymous with Aviva .
Hopefully our new CEO has had it checked out before signing.

[wba1] 22/12/2020 12:39

spud; I really hope this new arrangement is on a quota share basis. Dale already have capacity for such risks from US insurers and - too often - I have seen such arrangements with new capacity providers used to place the lousy business no one else wants.

[captainactive] 22/12/2020 10:55

I'm thinking this is a buy if it gets to somewhere between 303-306

[wba1] 22/12/2020 10:28

cjac39; interesting questions, but I would need to look much closer to come up with sensible comment. However I was amused by the question re the drop in non-ARI causes at A&E. Anyone who plays sport (I still play league cricket at 65) will say that it generates a huge number of A&E attendances. Whilst I would not go for anything short of a fracture (as I have had most injuries and can diagnose and treat as well as most doctors) the advice at clubs is to send to A&E for almost any injury and especially if a colt is involved. The stop in sports for 3 months and subsequent reduction will have generated the fall in attendances without any other causes and I am only surprised that the drop is that small. What this means is that the benefit to A&E will be much smaller than the scale of the fall as most sports injury attendances are for minor matters which can be turned around quickly.

[cjac39] 21/12/2020 22:19

dr b - this is last post i will ever write on cv as its super annoying.

- its really sad to hear your personal connection with it. it is definitely a disease that causes deaths and is new and swept through the country
- it was epidemic in feb-apr which is unusual for a coronavirus which exhibits more normal seasonality in the winter in Northern hemisphere countries
- but it is entirely endemic now just finishing off the lockdown prevented outcomes it was always going to effect
- if anyone can explain to me simple answers to the attached i would happily change all my priors and agree its serious

[spud] 21/12/2020 19:55

Dow up over 500 points from low. spud

[dr biotech] 21/12/2020 19:53

Dax is up 1% post close but ftse currently flattish (+14 pts). Would be nice but not holding my breath.

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Guess there is a chance that vaccinated key workers could still be spreaders, I would have thought their viral load would be lower though. Have to vaccinate in some order though and I think they have it about right.

[whatsup32] 21/12/2020 19:36

USD has moved to 1.35 level to sterling. Brexit agreement??

[anthony100] 21/12/2020 11:10

Dr Biotech
After we vaccinate the " key workers" dont we just end up with a few million more candidates as asymptomatic spreaders. Texas is following this path and not vaccinating oyher bubble denizens. Not sure what else we can do other than dropping the stuff from the sky.

My profits are melting awsy as i reach gor the tin hat.

[123trev] 21/12/2020 10:33

My buy here will be £3 and that’s a gamble.

[cjac39] 21/12/2020 10:30

sorry i meant thanks skyship...misread the post

[dr biotech] 21/12/2020 10:29

FWIW the rollout of the vaccine appears to be going very well, given the circumstances (a close associate of mine sits on major health board). So that is some minor positive.

I think the priority list is about right, those that work in hospitals, or likely to end up in them first, then I’d have those in frontline public services next. I know 4 people who’ve had their first injection. One has a sore arm, others no side effects at all.

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I’m holding a lot of cash, will wait till jan before investing in anything new. Still taken a hit today though.

[cjac39] 21/12/2020 10:13

thanks spud. ill take a look. i hold a slightly different view but am happy to change if incorrect.

[wba1] 21/12/2020 09:59

pOpper; yes, I saw the rns earlier, but thought it was a very small (and expected) announcement. The currency issue seems far more significant both for them and others with a large % of overseas earnings. Of course, as we have discussed before, the currency weakness also helps Aviva (at least in respect of prices for subsidiary sales and the attractiveness of a core Aviva to foreign buyers).

[skyship] 21/12/2020 09:52

cjac - I suspect you may be right on the insurers; but I suggest 100% wrong with UKCM. UKCM is an over-priced institutional stock and generally avoided by PIs due to the lower than average NAV discount and paltry yield - currently 21.4% & 2.8% respectively. I agree they're not as over-priced as a couple of weeks ago when they hit 76p versus the current 66p; so I wouldn't preclude a small bounce from here. But generally speaking AVOID.

If you are looking to learn about REIT value, then I would suggest follow the CP+ thread - link below.

Current Best Buys all have discounts c37% - BREI, CLI, MCKS & SREI.

[cyberian] 21/12/2020 09:43

Some really good posters here and ones that many of us respect....agree BJ has to go soon, but as wba1 states the issue is who would secure the best support. My view on the vaccine is that the front line health NHS workers should be first for reason that they are needed to take care of us and to not have them off work. Many are self isolating at present..... Jeremy Hunt has this view. I would then vaccinate teachers, and then the police. The rest of us should be more careful and adhere to whatever restrictions are applied as the next few weeks are critical while the vaccines coming on stream/rolled-out will help minimize the spread of Covid-19, and its variance.

[p0pper] 21/12/2020 09:42

wba1 glaxo up because of todays rns

[cjac39] 21/12/2020 09:34

i dont really follow non financials so couldnt comment. but agreed - could be more downside, but upside case is so established for insurers now that i don't see much risk (as opposed to volatility). the joy of investing for ones self rather than running money for others is not caring about the short term and patiently waiting for the long term.

[wba1] 21/12/2020 09:21

I agree cjac, although I am not sure that prices will not fall further short term simply on general market direction and sentiment. There seems little differentiation between shares affected by weekend developments and those not affected (or even benefitting). I am wondering why Glaxo is up and Tate & Lyle down since both benefit significantly from the weakening of sterling and were already lowly rated.