Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[chrissey] 09/8/2010 13:12

call me cynical kaje but from the price action of the last 2 days, I suspect that some know the answer!

I'm thinking we will see an RNS this week but that is simply my own opinion so we will see.

[marksnsparkle] 09/8/2010 13:12

kaje362 ... Company says end of September with possible delay of up to 6 weeks from that date

"On 12 May Avanti announced that it expected HYLAS 1 to launch by the end of September. Although the satellite itself is expected to be ready on schedule, uncertainty surrounding the readiness of the new Soyuz launch pad in French Guyana has led to a scheduling risk in relation to a Soyuz launch vehicle. In order to minimise timetable slippage, Avanti is currently in discussions with Arianespace regarding the selection of the most appropriate launch window for use of an Ariane 5 launch vehicle instead. Arianespace has assured Avanti of its ability to launch the satellite at the earliest opportunity and has several launch slots potentially available. However, as the Ariane 5 would typically involve a two satellite launch, the final determination of a launch date will involve the detailed assessment of launch partners and consideration of their own satellite delivery schedules. The Board's estimate is that there is a risk of schedule delay of up to six weeks from the proposed end September launch. Avanti will update the market as soon as the launch partner and the launch date are settled."

[kaje362] 09/8/2010 13:04

When is this Hylas 1 satellite being launched then? I can't see any timing mentioned on the company website either - apart from the fact that it's going to be in the second half of 2010. Well it's August already. Anyone know?

[marksnsparkle] 09/8/2010 12:32

breakout or triple top :-)

[pip_uk] 09/8/2010 11:25

Strange antics with the share price today,can`t seem to make up it`s mind wether it`s punched or bored.Can see another auction before too long.
Enjoying the ride though.

[yorgi] 09/8/2010 10:50

Well whatever we are having a good morning

[sco77harris] 09/8/2010 10:28

575 live to buy

[standish11] 09/8/2010 10:23

Smarm Thanks for your comments which I appreciate.I agree re -rating should be the focus and I am grateful for your constructive input on this and other threads.

[engelo] 09/8/2010 10:23

is 540 an all time high?

[engelo] 09/8/2010 10:21

standish: Tom W may complain about infringement but I'm sure he owns an armful of these and so the more in the know the better!

New on here so thanks for informed views of other posters. Also added this am.

[colva] 09/8/2010 10:19

I also doubled my holding on the open this morning. a launch delay of a few weeks or even a couple of months is not going to be a problem here, the underlying value is increasing and sooner or later its going to be reflected in the share price

Im a t1ps subscriber and have pasted writeups on BB in the past , I don,t think TW is in any position to complain. A couple of months back t1ps organised the master investor show ,and tickets were advertised for sale on their web site for 49 pounds. T1ps subscribers could have 1 ticket free and would only have to pay 10 pounds for any extra tickets they wanted. On the face of it that looked like a good deal, until i found out that they were actually giving away free tickets to anyone that wanted them. I emailed them using my wife,s email address and they offered me 2 tickets free.

[smarm] 09/8/2010 10:06

Dolores - we do! LOL.

S

[dolores123] 09/8/2010 10:03

I topped up as well. The share price is taking off - who needs a rocket!!!!!

[smarm] 09/8/2010 09:17

standish - you are 100% right in what you say and I would fully agree with you but for the fact he gives away a lot of stuff for free. We pay and he hands it out for nothing....albeit delayed. Very odd.

Meanwhile, let's focus on the re-rating that is going on.

Happy days.

I doubled my holding first thing.

S

[standish11] 09/8/2010 09:02

I take your points re copyright.I was merely trying to be helpful because Tom W has complained in the past re infringement.

[extrader] 09/8/2010 08:57

Hi standish11,

I share your concern for the niceties of copyright, but in this case I think your concern is misplaced : e.g. I received this 'tip' as an Email, as a consequence of having signed up to Moneyweek. I pay no subscription to either, so assume they've got some arrangement (= publicity ?).

Most tips get binned, but occasionally there's a nugget to be dug out.....I think AVN may be one - and am anxiously awaiting resolution of the DNX/KNOC saga to mobilise funds !

[sadone] 09/8/2010 07:51

Yorgi - Seconded & I subscribe !

[yorgi] 09/8/2010 07:49

Is it a big deal to you Standfish ? We appreciate it

[standish11] 09/8/2010 07:46

someuwin
By posting verbatim extracts from a subscription web site you are prima facie breaching copyright.I know that t1ps.com take a dim view of this so perhaps you should be more circumspect.

[someuwin] 08/8/2010 19:02

t1ps.com comment...

"Avanti Communications* - Share Price Comment

Today (2010-08-08 12:06:18)

Avanti Communications* - Share Price Comment

It has not escaped my attention that shares in Avanti Communications* (AVN) jumped by 5.83% on Friday (up 28p at 508p) on a day when the market as a whole was down. Even has it escaped my attention I am sure that I would have been reminded of it by a certain Welshman. So why the move?

Well for starters the shares are just very cheap. The range of analyst valuations for this stock is from £13 to£22.50. But I think that £25 is justifiable. Let's ignore the views of the only current follower who thought the shares were a steal at 116p and stick with the "experts". Even at 508p the stock is cheap and you will not, I think, go very wrong buying aggressively at up to 600p. As the HYLAS satellites go into orbit so too will the share price.

But every re-rating needs a trigger and on Friday that trigger came from rival Inmarsat which announced that it is to buy 3 ka band satellites. Now these will be different to HYLAS in that they will off mobile services which are different to Avanti's fixed services and there are differing geographic focuses so they are non competing. But the news serves to validate Avanti's long held views that the World's satellite (and a lot of terrestrial) data traffic must move to Ka band, and since Avanti owns 14GHz of Ka band spectrum it is well placed to benefit from this long term secular trend. In short Inmarsat merely showed how ridiculously undervalued Avanti's assets are.

Avanti is now valued at c£349 million. It will make the move to the full list and by my maths will be heading pretty soon into the FTSE 350 Index. That will attract more institutional buying but David Williams (the CEO) while courting institutions is also humble enough ( in a weird way) to know that he wants to keep private investors on board. After all anyone who bought £10,000 of shares at 116p is now sitting on a hefty gain and having a lot of those folks take profits would not assist the re-rating process. So full marks to the acceptable face of Welshdom for keeping his feet on the ground. He should be a role model to others.

Away from the share price, the shares are on any DCF based model still very cheap. So the stance, at up to 600p, is "strong buy" with a one year target of £15-£25 (depending on the pricing of forward capacity sales)."

[chrissey] 08/8/2010 17:19

Dol, I would predict:

Post launch announcement 550-580p
Post successful launch 675-750p
2011, rising to 1100-1200p

I would be very happy half way between our respective views but, numbers aside, the underlying movements have to be a given.

good luck to all holders!

[dolores123] 08/8/2010 12:51

I think (optimistically) that we could see the following

Post announcement of firm launch date say £6 to £6.50.

Post a successful launch of Hylas 1 - step change - re rating - £9 to £11

2011 share price increases as we approach Hylas 2 launch - £15+

Also the timing of full listing could help accelerate the share price growth.

The spring is coiled and ready to go!!

[sco77harris] 07/8/2010 22:47

lol i take a lot of the reports with a pinch of salt being house brokers etc however i think 8 pounds post launch at least long long term 20 pounds could be poss