Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[30003000] 07/8/2010 19:47

I bow to your superior knowledge with good grace. Let's hope you are right.

[someuwin] 07/8/2010 18:59

30003000 - Cenkos last week upped their target to £22.25!


"Avanti Communications - PLACING & UPDATE; BUY. Price at 29 Jul 2010 (GBP) 470, Price Target (GBP) 2225

Avanti Communications has announced that it has successfully raised £70m at 430p. The funds will be used to initiate the development of HYLAS 3. £13m will be used to begin the manufacture of HYLAS 3. HYLAS 3 will have identical specifications to HYLAS 2 and will be assembled in parallel, leading to material efficiency and cost savings. The remaining £57m of the funds will be used to repay the PIK bond which was used to part finance HYLAS 1 and fees associated with the relocation of the HYLAS 2 assets. The repayment of the bond will enable management to secure advantageous financing from export credit agencies for HYLAS 3, similar to those achieved for the development of HYLAS 2. The commissioning of a third satellite will yet again create a step change in earnings and further reduce the risk profile of the business. We estimate that the net present value of the earnings from the three satellites using a 10% discount factor is over 2200p. Avanti will announce June FY10 results in September. However, these are likely to be eclipsed in significance by the successful launch of HYLAS 1. BUY.

HYLAS 3

HYLAS 3 will have 8,280 MHz of capacity. It will cost £250m, though it is expected that £15m will be saved by manufacturing it in parallel with HYLAS 2. Management are confident that the remaining financing will be sourced from further ECA funding and cashflows from HYLAS 1. We have assumed that HYLAS 3 achieves the same utilisation take-up and payment profile as HYLAS 2. HYLAS 3 should achieve utilisation rates of 90% over the course of five years beginning in FY13. Capacity will be sold at rates of £1,450 per MHz/month, rising at 10% per annum for the first three years and flat thereafter. Recent transactions suggest that this estimate is conservative. A target market has yet to be established for HYLAS 3 but Avanti's licenses on the geo-stationary orbit would enable it to deliver broadband in South America, Africa, Europe, the Middle East and India, each of which displays potential.

Financial forecast and valuation

This fundraising will become strongly earnings enhancing from FY13 onwards. Earnings in FY11 and FY12 will not be affected by the fundraising as we expect Avanti to establish its operations over this period. We expect our FY13 earnings forecast of 36p to remain unchanged. There is then a step change in earnings once HYLAS 3 is launched. We expect eps of 112p in FY14, 42% higher than our estimate prior to this forecast. A similar degree of earnings enhancement takes place thereafter. Our calculations of the discounted cashflows of the three satellites suggest a valuation of over 2200p per share. We would expect the shares to surpass 800p post launch of HYLAS 1."

[30003000] 07/8/2010 18:51

I think I am starting to like this company, inside info says £12 share price

[blue forever] 07/8/2010 17:33

Looking at the timing of the rise on Friday, I`d say it was a near certainty there will be an rns on Monday !

[chrissey] 07/8/2010 16:38

I can't see a break until we have launch confirmation, maybe the late rise friday is presaging this?

I wouldn't be surprised, I would say 50:50 that we see an RNS on this monday.

either that or there is a good sized buy order on the books.

Good luck all holders, what ever your short, medium and long terms expectations are.

[yorgi] 07/8/2010 11:47

Good end to the day and maybe we move on Monday.....for selfish reason I hope it holds on a bit longer for when I have some more funds soon

[hardrider8] 06/8/2010 16:28

A clear break on the weekly chart of the downtrend that has been in place since beginning of May. Hopefully a good week ahead as we start the next leg up. Volume has been huge for the last few weeks suggesting we could see a strong move from here.
HR8

[someuwin] 06/8/2010 16:24

That's better.

[hardrider8] 06/8/2010 16:18

Looks to be breaking now, indicators on both daily and weekly have turned positive

[dolores123] 06/8/2010 15:45

Dare I say we have a nice little tick-up so far today!!

[dolores123] 06/8/2010 10:57

Good post smarm - it highlights the inportant difference between AVN and Immarsat.

[yorgi] 06/8/2010 09:14

Thanks for that Smarm

[yorgi] 05/8/2010 12:52

Still seems reluctant to push through the 500p level

[dolores123] 05/8/2010 09:26

Hi Guys - we will be able to watch the live launch on the arianespace website on their webcast service.

Just to repeat my previous post - Arianespace, which Avanti has commissioned, successfully launched an Ariane 5 rocket last night delivering 2 satellites into orbit.

This is their 3rd launch this year, all successful and delivering in total 6 satellites into orbit.

All we need now is confirmation of our launch date.

[someuwin] 05/8/2010 08:55

Yes, thanks for the updates Dolores.

I look forward to the day (night?) when we can watch Hylas launch. Should be quite a party!

[smarm] 04/8/2010 23:28

Thanks Dolores, where are you watching/hearing this?

S

[dolores123] 04/8/2010 22:32

second Sat just separated successfully

[dolores123] 04/8/2010 22:29

First sat just separated successfully

[smarm] 04/8/2010 22:25

gerhux - £38k? Crumbs; big position.

S

[yorgi] 04/8/2010 22:24

I haven't been in long, glad for your report Delores

[dolores123] 04/8/2010 22:19

Well done Gerhux. I have 6000 shares in my SIPP and everything crossed!!!

[dolores123] 04/8/2010 22:14

Ariannespace has just successfully launched (no problem!!) another Arianne 5 and will shortly release the 2 satelites. Are you watching the webcast?

[sg31] 04/8/2010 20:07

Welcome aboard gerhux.Good luck,