Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[gseppi] 06/3/2010 10:09

Smarm thankyou for you time to answer.

[terryebby] 06/3/2010 08:46

the risk of launch failure is very low because they are using the best rocket in the World - something like 1400 successful launches and used to send men to space. even if that bizarre evebtuality did occur, they have a second satellite already under construction and would simply use insurance proceeds from the first to re-build.

[smarm] 05/3/2010 19:34

gerhux - thanks and no worries.

S

[gerhux] 05/3/2010 18:56

Smarm as ever your input is hugely appreciated and I honestly didn't envisage my original question on TNT's board resulting in a minor scuffle such as this one. Hope your foot gets better soon. In the meantime I shall continue hobbling in the field of TA :-(((

[smarm] 05/3/2010 18:47

horneblower - thanks, let's move on.

gseppi - yes, charting, better called Technical Analysis, really works for me but it's not for everyone. It's like a game of rubber bridge, which is to some extent a game of luck. Regardless, the best players always win over the long term. It's the same with chartists, those people who draw the best charts (and there's always more than one way to draw a chart) will do better than those who draw poor charts. I have been making my living from trading for just short of 5-years now and I have made money every year. I have beaten 98% of all Fund Managers over a three year period and today I closed at a new all-time (albeit unbanked) high, pleased with that.

There are some 4000+ shares out there and one needs to get them down to a manageable number from which to find good trades/investments. I use a raft of TA measures to do that and that's given me some lovely rises...MML, MPO, CPUB to name just three.

To my mind AVN is a news driven share. It didn't do very well after the split from Avanti ScreenMedia as there was insufficient news flow to drive it. Then the contracts started coming and the potential started to emerge. The news about Hylas 2 was very exciting.

It came onto my radar for real at £2, when it broke a downtrend (see second chart above) but I didn't fancy it and left it a long while before buying at £2.74. The entry isn't clear on the chart I posted but it's there if you know what to look for and I topped up at 3.19 in the hope that it would break out of a triangle formation to the upside. It did. I then bought speculatively at 377 because by then I had some conviction that AVN was undervalued.

Conviction is a wonderful thing but it is not allowed to cloud my money-making and time and time again bad news is seen in the price before it occurs. So when my metrics started to flash 'sell' I sold some. Not all, just some.

In fact, AVN is a sell on every TA metric I use but one and that one is holding nicely. I am therefore allowing my conviction to hold me in my remaining 2/3rds for as long asmy last metric remains good (or there is bad news). I will buy back the other 3rd on good news or when my metrics flash buy.

What I do isn't for everyone but as long as I'm making enough to keep me in champagne and handbags I'm happy.

Have a nice weekend.

S

[gseppi] 05/3/2010 17:27

smarm i am glad you agree but could you tell me if charting really works for you and what price targets you have got through your method for AVN and why.Also where do you see this going within the next few months?

Personally i try to anticipate future market before it can react,by keeping things basic and simple, and work out the risk/reward/investments from there. In this case i know the internet is the future (concidering the net is only 20+or- years old it still is a baby) will only get bigger and more accessible. What AVN are doing is future in the making.

I realy enjoy reading peoples views and always welcome balanced opinions good or bad.

Good luck to all

[dil] 05/3/2010 16:31

250k sold at 455p ... thats what's been holding us back , probably a fund locking in profits before its year end.

Normal service will soon be resumed imo.

[jonnib] 05/3/2010 14:48

Gerhux
Thanks for the suggestion, i`ll give it a try.
I was at the Kennedy space centre yesterday and was lucky to witness the launch of a rocket carrying satelites.....spoke to a few workers who scoffed at the idea of a rocket blowing up upon launch, and a failure is just as unlikely. They put the rocket on the launch pad a month before blast off and go over the thing with a fine tooth comb. I know we are not launching from the cape but its still reassuring to know. (for me anyway)...

Back to my holiday

[horneblower] 05/3/2010 13:39

anyway...I apologise for being judgemental or rude. No excuse for that.

[smarm] 05/3/2010 13:38

...anyway, you trade your way and I'll trade mine. Last post here. Not worth the effort.

S

[smarm] 05/3/2010 13:34

...and here is why:



S

[smarm] 05/3/2010 13:30

horneblower - AVN has changed materially since the bottom of the chart. I am not trying to wind-you-up, I am presenting the part of the chart I think you should be looking at.

S

[horneblower] 05/3/2010 13:28

I see you've deliberately left off the bottom part of the chart.

[smarm] 05/3/2010 13:24

hornebolower - here....this might help you to be less judgemental in future.



S

[smarm] 05/3/2010 13:07

horneblower - I'm not. Why would anyone buy a satellite provider with no satellite.

..... here is same in log scale. It doesn't change the analysis. And your comment re 'salt' is nonsense.



gseppi - I agree with all but your speculation over the price towards launch.

S

[gseppi] 05/3/2010 12:46

imho launch could fail but I realy do not think so to me this share is worth at least £6-11 the reson why i say this is because.
1.) all euro & UK governments want internet in all house holds within the next 10 years and it will happen
2.) The internet is a must in remote areas i.e mountain / deserts ect
3.) faster mobile internet while on the move
4.) And above all they are FULLY FUNDED
You dont have to be an expert to see Avanti is well placed.
The recent fall could be because most pi's bought in made a quick profit back in Dec sold moved on.
The lack of news.

The one thing I am sure of as we get near to blast off AVN will rise in share price to the £6 mark

[horneblower] 05/3/2010 11:29

smarm, No buyers at £3.20? Are you joking.
btw, no chartist worth his salt uses linear charts so the "breakdown" you show above is meaningless imo.

[smarm] 05/3/2010 11:18

gerhux - to answer your question put on another thread, the AVN chart is not easy to draw but this is the way I see it. Was in nice uptrend and has now broken down.

On the Voodooo score, it has stopped at the 12.5% Gann retracement (not shown) and I would like to think that it will not go lower from here but it could.

I am holding from 2.74 and 3.19 but I let my 3.77 slice go on the break of the red trendline.



horneblower - if the launch fails I cannot see how there will be any buyers.

To me this is a no-brainer of a hold.

S

[gerhux] 05/3/2010 09:22

jonnib I'm reading "TA for Dummies" at the moment and have met a brick wall on reaching Chapter 9 "Seeing Patterns" but it's a great book.

[plasterkay] 04/3/2010 17:16

Charts are all things to all men. Ignore them!!!

[jonnib] 03/3/2010 16:36

Thanks Horneblower and Jimbo

[jimbo55] 03/3/2010 15:42

jonnib, do a search for the epic "£1". You will find the "Fingers" charting thread. He's an amateur chartist who seems to know his stuff, and he has a significant PI following on here. Seems a very genuine guy. Doubtless, he'll be able to recommend you some places to get started.

[horneblower] 03/3/2010 14:54

j,
I'm afraid not.
I am completely self taught and don't know of any good texts although I am sure there are some.
I occassionaly feel like writing a charting primer but most people on these boards have little or no time for charts or chartists.

[jonnib] 03/3/2010 14:40

Horneblower

Thanks for that.
I have noticed on several boards that "chartists" seem to put a sense of reality to rampers/derampers and would like to understand charts better.
Do you have any suggetions on how to read charts for beginners?

regards
jonnib

[horneblower] 03/3/2010 10:19

Jonnib,
Some clues from the chart:
The recent two-stage pull-back from 540p to 460p may well be due to concerns about the success of the launch although the chart was looking a little overbought already.
If the launch fails I would expect to see the price coming back to the lower pink line at around 320p but I don't think it would stay there long as buyers would likely flood in.
If the launch is a success then my immediate target is 640p which in chart terms is a standard triple phase elliot wave result.

Overriding this is the overall market sentiment which will increase or dampen the effect depending on its strength or weakness. The market is strong at the moment but that could change before the launch.