Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[yorgi] 04/5/2011 10:03

The factor that has kept me very confident of AVN is the potential for this market supported by the fact that for most people/companies government the internet is an essential part of life today. The general opinion is that demand will outstrip supply and regardless of the "red herrings" being thrown around earlier in the year for remote properties with no cable/wire connection and poor mobile coverage there is no alternative other than satellite.

[blackberrydrop] 04/5/2011 08:58

AVNs debt repayment is not due until 2013 and in that year it is less than £20m. Having debt at 5% from BarCap and EXIM shows what a high quality business this is. Which other AIM business could borrow so cheap?

[garymott] 04/5/2011 08:45

sugerg1,

You are speculating again to say "'fully loaded' prob 2018 to 2020" for Hylas 3. The market is expanding very rapidly and 2018 to 2020 is a long time in this sense. If I remember rightly from gg, the CEO of Eutelsat said that the market size is much bigger than when they began their KA-SAT programme just a few years ago.

Even SC's bearish informant acknowledges on 18 April that "it maybe more realistic to expect Hylas 1 to generate peak revenue p.a. of around £33m p.a". This is without any contribution from Hylas 2 which already has a significant order backlog and is on schedule for launch in H1 2012.

SC refuses to answer my question regarding the combined revenue of Hylas 1 and 2. He must be either incapable or scared of the answer.

The main delay for Hylas 1 was with the previous launch provider (hence the recent legal award to AVN for full compensation) prior to the change to Ariane. Hylas 2 will be launched by an Ariane.

[dodge meister] 04/5/2011 08:44

You would have to say that at these share price levels there is significant support, even the bears have target price above the current...except Evil I assume.

[greengiant] 04/5/2011 08:42

superg1,

£33m to pay per year from 2012 to 2019. That is 7 years worth of debt a total payment of £230m over 7 years. Please tell me, what is the anticipated revenue for H1 & H2 over those 7 years (per year please). What is the anticipated margins on H1 & H2? Post those numbers and you might have a better argument.

You are right however, about H2 being the next driver of the share price.

gg

[superg1] 04/5/2011 08:23

On the debt front re Hylas 3. It will be many years before it is 'fully loaded' prob 2018 to 2020.

So are you saying there will be further debts to pay. Already £33m to repay per year from 2012 until 2019. Never mind running costs.

IMO everything has to run spot on or troublrs will ensue. Hylas 1 saw delays.

The hype is an assumption that everything will run perfectly.

All idea's at ther moment and huge risk still so that's why the share price is where it is. Hylas 1 won't pay the bills even when full so Hylas 2 is the next share price driver imo

[orado] 04/5/2011 08:06

Edmond
As usual he is NOT right.

[simon cawkwell] 04/5/2011 07:46

Gentlemen,

I forte'd say that.

SC

[colva] 04/5/2011 07:42

Simon

Tongue in cheek seems to be your forte .

[simon cawkwell] 04/5/2011 06:26

colva,

My pleasure.

Simon Cawkwell

[colva] 04/5/2011 06:17

Some top quality posts in the last couple of days - Thanks guys

[dnfa1975] 03/5/2011 23:21

FRED THOUGHT THE SHARES WOULD SOON BE UNDER £3

[greengiant] 03/5/2011 21:11

Let us stick to the facts:

1) Pre service contracts were 40% up on management expectations (25% vs 35.% actual)

2) Backlog and pipeline at highs

3) Management has consistently stated that pricing is above expectations

$) Over 50% relate to Military and Enterprise

What is the shorters argument based on? Somebody's opinion. Thank's but I prefer actual facts.

gg

PS - You are behind the times if you don't know Yahsat has all ready launched.

[greengiant] 03/5/2011 19:46

pabloiom,

2 months old?

Why is it in the merde? Let us look again at the facts:

1) At service launch aggregate contracts 35.1% versus plan 25% - 40% higher than plan

2) Backlog & Pipeline significantly up.

3) Over 50% of revenues Military or Business Enterprise

4) Consistently the company has stated that pricing is ahead of market and management expectations.

The shorter argument is non existent and has been based on spreading fear. Like I said earlier tho' anyone selling out cannot blame the shorters, if they are not capable of believing their own research, then that is their own problem.

DeltaR - you are out of touch. Yahsat lunched about 10 days ago after a delayed launch.

gg

[blackberrydrop] 03/5/2011 19:08

Exactly Marksnsparkle, and Avns are competitive

[gorvachof] 03/5/2011 18:07

Interesting that, thanks black/Marks. Cheapest I have seem through hyas 1.

Yorgi, I kinda meant the experts as in independant from the markets etc. The kind of people who don't give recomendations like "strong buy" & "buy". Since when is it a good idea to follow them.

[dnfa1975] 03/5/2011 18:06

I want CANDY!

[yorgi] 03/5/2011 17:35

Blacbberry,

There is no way SC is going to give an open honest appraisal of AVN'S service or anything else about the company. He has decided for some time that it was and is overpriced and was going to short so all he is going to do is pump out all he can to make him more money. He is also trying to prove a point with TW i'm quite sure. For the time being he is winning the argument by frightening enough into selling and more to short. Only time will tell if he is right or wrong and I believe he is very wrong.

[blackberrydrop] 03/5/2011 17:24

Thanks Marksnsparkle.

The thing is, Avanti has over 70 service providers in 14 countries in Europe, more than half in military and enterprise. I am sure if I could be bothered to trawl through all of their websites and languages I could find lots more examples. But thats not the point, suffice to say no one should take it seriously when fatso picks an isolated data point from a small company in one market and tries to extrapolate that to support his dodgy short campaign.

[marksnsparkle] 03/5/2011 16:35

Gorvachof ... it is Avanti pricing for Hylas 1, take a look at the FAQ ...

"F: Auf welchen Satelliten wird HETAN@Speed ausgestrahlt?
A: HETAN@Speed wird auf dem Satelliten HYLAS 1 im Ka Band ausgestrahlt. Die orbitale Position ist 33.5 West."


English translation (via google) is ...

"Q: On which satellite is broadcast HETAN @ Speed​​?
A: HETAN @ Speed ​​is broadcast on the satellite HYLAS 1 in the Ka band. The orbital position, 33.5 West."

[gorvachof] 03/5/2011 16:28

I cant believe thats Avantis pricing Blackberry, I'm sure Hetan is a partner of Eutelsat?