Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[marksnsparkle] 05/5/2011 13:39

Simon ... you must have missed the rebuttal from AVN, so here is the slow motion replay ...

"The average prices per MHz per month are materially ahead of expectations."


"Avanti is pleased to confirm that at service launch, having confirmed contracts and orders, the peak utilisation rate under HYLAS 1 aggregate contracts is 35.1% which comfortably exceeding the 25% target set pre-launch."


So in summary pricing and sales are exceeding expectations ... which to me translates as Avanti are competitively/correctly priced for the satellite broadband market

[garymott] 05/5/2011 13:03

Simon,

AVN has stated multiple times about its pricing power. Pricing of contracts won are ahead of market expectations. Also that pre-service contracts are ahead of the BP.

So what does your informant think is the combined revenue of Hylas 1 + 2?

[simon cawkwell] 05/5/2011 12:58

GaryMott,

You might care to reflect upon the fact that BarCap may have persuaded themselves that they were being wise at the time. Events move on and, possibly, they might now change their mind. I do not know and I need hardly add that they are not telling me.

I simply repeat that my informant is an intelligent and honest man who underlines AVN's seeming lack of pricing power. This happens in commerce and is often extremely damaging to prospects even after a carefully developed financing.

This is not a matter of labelling me or my informant idiots. We merely stand on evidence which, it must be said, AVN itself have not rebutted.

Simon Cawkwell

[garymott] 05/5/2011 12:45

Agreed, and very reassuring. It would be great to get a single order for 50% of Hylas 2 which would be peanuts for the US military budget. Who knows, it may not be far off?

Meanwhile in the parallel universe of SC and his informant, I can't even get them to forecast the combined revenue of Hylas 1 + 2. Now why is that I wonder.....

Obviously their research goes far beyond that of Barclays Capital!!!! :-)

[marksnsparkle] 05/5/2011 12:16

Another good bit that highlights the soundness of the Avanti business model ...

"Williams goes on to explain the 'incredibly detailed due diligence' undertaken by Barclays Capital, who arranged the £200 million CEM debt financing. It involved streams of lawyers, masses of market research, and numerous experts to assess Avanti's technology and contracts."

[marksnsparkle] 05/5/2011 12:10

Interesting bit from the interview with David Williams in Share Magazine, that was posted on iii ...

"The US military, Williams explains, is considering buying 5Ghz of Ka band capacity over the Middle East. 'That's half the capacity of HYLAS 2,' he points out, which following next year's launch, will be the only satellite available for that region owned and operated by a company based in a NATO member state. Something, I suspect, the US armed forces might see as an important consideration"

[yorgi] 05/5/2011 10:37

Well put Jeffian sums it up, but I'm quite the bears will continue to ignore all of this.

[jeffian] 05/5/2011 10:28

Yes, that's an interesting interview. At the end, he picks up on a point I have raised a couple of times here without response from the 'bear' camp.

"Williams goes on to explain the
'incredibly detailed due diligence'
undertaken by Barclays Capital, who
arranged the £200 million CEM debt
financing. It involved streams of
lawyers, masses of market research,
and numerous experts to assess
Avanti's technology and contracts.
This was 'far more than we used to do
when I was a banker in the 1990s,' he
admits. This raking over Avanti's credibility
seems an appropriate point on
which to close."

When the bears question the technology, the market, the pricing, the contracts, the competition etc., how on earth do they think it got through due diligence and how would Hylas 2 be funded and Hylas 3 financing progressing without these issues being considered and answered to the satisfaction of both lenders and equity holders?

[yorgi] 05/5/2011 10:02

Good find Colva, thanks for posting.

[jonnib] 04/5/2011 22:28

no surprise that the same small group are back just as SC is posting his ill informed rubbish.

[yorgi] 04/5/2011 21:05

He could be SC's contact :-)

[greengiant] 04/5/2011 18:10

druinsky,

Your level of research is about as good as your conclusion

Merde

gg

[druinsky] 04/5/2011 18:03

looks loike the price shall start with a £3 soon, then £2

in deep merde imho this one is

[pojscott] 04/5/2011 15:51

A Trader friend, bit of a high flyer, told me last night that Avanti was considered, by him and his firm, to be very undervalued at the moment.
This morning we see a small jump in s/p. Maybe some of the big boys will start buying at this price???

[yorgi] 04/5/2011 15:01

Yes a very pleasant change Pojscott

[pojscott] 04/5/2011 14:49

A bit of blue for a change!

[yorgi] 04/5/2011 13:48

Is it Druninsky.

I'm not quite sure what you are getting at Gorvachef in your last comment ? I don't think I have said anything contrary or even along those lines.

[gorvachof] 04/5/2011 13:31

I think Astra has a Ka-band satellite due 2012/2013?

Why are resellers being so aggressive with pricing when "demand outsrips supply"

Yorgi, there are many ways where you can find contact with design/engineers (experts from the field) on the internet.

Edit - Yorgi sorry was refering to finding an independant view on Avanti.

[druinsky] 04/5/2011 13:22

looking weak

[greengiant] 04/5/2011 13:01

superg1,

I would hate to point out the obvious, but in accounting terms, the repayment of debt is not a Profit & Loss Item. So your argument of £33m repayment meaning no profits is absurd. The accounting entry for this would be:

Dr Loans due for repayment in Current Year
Cr Bank / Cash.

This is a balance sheet and cash flow entry it has absolutely NOTHING to do with the Profit & Loss account.

The Interest Payment of course is a P&L item.

Of the 10 satellites that are being put up, it is only Yahsat 1b, which is in the same market, the rest are all ready established players serving predominately the TV and Radio markets.

Anyway I think the idea of dividends is absurd. This is an early stage growth company. Profits on an EBITDA level I believe will be generated in 2012. Also you fail to take into consideration the amount that Avanti has presold on H2.

gg

[marksnsparkle] 04/5/2011 10:13

that's especially true if say you want to fly a unmanned aerial vehicle over Libya :-)