Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[dnfa1975] 03/5/2011 16:13

Creme de la Merde



mmmm nice

[dnfa1975] 03/5/2011 16:11

This one looks like it is in deep merde, for those who like a bit of French

[blackberrydrop] 03/5/2011 15:56

I had a quick look at the biggest market in Europe for a comparison, and guess what I found .....

Selling Avanti, is

Download Speed: 6144Kbit/s
Upload Speed: 2048 kbit/s
Data Limit per month: 5 GB
Excess GB charge - FREE
Monthly price: Euro 29.90
Hardware cost: FREE

Selling Eutelsat is www.satinternetservices.de (see: )

Download Speed: 6000bit/s - 2.3% slower than Avanti
Upload Speed: 1000 kbit/s – 52% slower than Avanti
Data Limit per month: 4 GB – 20% less capacity than Avanti
Excess GB charge – E9.95 – Euro 9.95 more expensive than Avanti
Monthly price: Euro 29.95 - 0.2% more expensive than Avanti
Hardware cost: Euro 199.95 – E199.95 more expensive than Avanti

So here it seems that Avanti's customer, and I presume this is a larger GVNO customer rather than a mall SVNO customer is CONSIDERABLY better value for money than a Eutelsat service provider. The main lesson here though is that in a large international market, service providers prices will vary depending on the scale of their commitment and their desire for growth and margins.

[marksnsparkle] 03/5/2011 15:26

superg1 ... Avanti have commented numerous times on how Hylas 3 will be funded and it does not involve dilution

"In order to repeat this success, we decided to seek pre sales contracts from customers on the HYLAS 3 satellite, which can then be used to finance the satellite in the debt market, protecting shareholders interest. Such financings are time consuming and complex, but well suited to a business like Avanti which has very long term assets and aspirations. I am pleased to report that we are in advanced negotiations on several significant pre-sales contracts which should enable us access efficient capital and we hope to update the market soon."


And like Simon you seem to think the world revolves around residential broadband ... I don't see to many contenders when you start talking about say bandwidth for Unmanned aerial vehicles for military use

Maybe the price will go up maybe it will go down ... but at least get the facts right :-)

[garymott] 03/5/2011 14:46

Simon,

I have now accessed the link and I apologise for getting the UK IP address issue wrong.

In your post 5405, your informant is making a significant assumption regarding the pricing of non-residential broadband. What happens if that assumption is wrong? It also completely ignores the fact that these are resellers prices and that AVN has reported both sales volumes and pricing to be ahead of their business plan. It also ignores the government and military sectors which AVN has stated are key sectors for them.

As far as I am aware, the most bearish and independent of brokers has a Sell recommendation and share price target of 488p which is significantly higher than the current share price This would mean that your informant is correct and everybody else, including the BOD and financiers of Hylas 2, are wrong. I find that difficult to believe based on the highly selective and inconsistent information supplied to date by your informant.

Please let me know what your informant believes the combined revenue of Hylas 1 and 2 to be?

[marksnsparkle] 03/5/2011 14:28

GaryMott ... its pretty clear that all Simon wants to talk about is the price at which 1 Avanti reseller is currently selling residential broadband ... quite a narrow argument :-)

PS
You can get a UK IP address with tooway

[garymott] 03/5/2011 14:12

Simon,

I cannot access the page when I click on your link. If I have got it wrong about the UK IP address then I apologise. That is my mistake.

However, you have not answered my question again. I repeat, what does your informant now expect the combined annual revenue of Hylas 1 and Hylas 2 to be?

I also find it incredibly arrogant of you to state such things as "Truly, AVN is doomed. SQP*."

[rwilliams57] 03/5/2011 14:01

As MelJohn says the company could clear this up pretty quickly. That they do not choose to do so is worrying to say the least. If AVN need to raise more funds, at any point, clarity rather than confusion would certainly help

[blue forever] 03/5/2011 14:00

Yeah,we`re all doomed!

[geheimnis2] 03/5/2011 14:00

chaps

dont listen to cawky - his methods are extremely well known - spreading malicious and false rumour (see for example pdx where he claimed the company was a scam)

avn is ahead of schedule both in terms of selling capacity and in terms of pricing

both of these points have been announced to the market

i would welcome an investigation\prosecution by the fsa

[garymott] 03/5/2011 14:00

sugerg1,

I'll be brief because I don't want to take alot of time debating this because there is too much speculation and personal opinion and not enough facts.

I take it then that you do not believe I am "spreading untruths". Let me know if you disagree.

I can't remember claims of £400M to £500M PA for Hylas 1 on this BB. If there were then I have ignored them to the point that I can't remember.

It is interesting to note though that SC or his informant have refused multiple times to answer my question regarding revenue.

Regarding Hylas 1, brokers estimates of £5.71 (I haven't checked) seem fine to me. However, as you know, companies are also valued on their future prospects which include specific plans for Hylas 2 (e.g. financing completed, launch timeframe set, substantial orders already won). This has increased most brokers estimates for both satelites above £5.71.

I find it interesting that the most bearish and independent broker (as far as I am aware of) has a Sell recommendation and a target price of £4.88 which is clearly significant higher than the current share price and yet SC is still talking the share price down.

It is quite easy therefore to conclude that he is doing this for his own financial gain without considering the interest of novice PI's like yourself because if others Short AVN at this price but it then rises significantly who will lose out? This was your concern before if going Long shortly after the launch so do you not think this is the same situation here?

[simon cawkwell] 03/5/2011 13:56

Gentlemen,

In the interests of promoting the great debate, I put GaryMott's points to my informant. Here is his reply:

"The pricing pressure from Eutelsat is, you would think, similar in non-residential broadband. In fact the top price package quoted is more of an enterprise offer (considering the spec/price point) and this is where the pricing differential is the greatest (Tooway is 40% of Avanti's price for a faster service).

Also there is one error to point out in your correspondent's post. He implies you do not get a UK IP address with Tooway and so cannot use BBC iPlayer with it. This is not true. See

Truly, AVN is doomed. SQP*.

Simon Cawkwell

*Sauve qui peut

[yorgi] 03/5/2011 13:55

Buy and Strong Buy.

[gorvachof] 03/5/2011 13:53

What is the experts view on Avanti? away from Cenko,TW,Avanti themselves and anyone else remotely connected with them.

[yorgi] 03/5/2011 13:43

Good post John :-)

[marksnsparkle] 03/5/2011 13:43

superg1 ... worth pointing out iii is the defendant in that case, i.e. its iii that are the accused ... most likely reason is that somebody has posted something defamatory on the AVN board over at iii and Avanti are taking iii to court to find out the posters identity

iii has been the defendant in quite a few cases like that

[meljohn] 03/5/2011 13:39

Like many, I have to go by technical information analysed by others with more expertise than myself. None of us can be experts in gas, oil, gold, satellite broadband etc. etc. So I suspect that SC's 'informant' will have caused quite a few holders to doubt the business model. They will simply not have the time or the expertise to weigh up the differing positions. So they sell to get into something where they feel more comfortable. And so the share price declines. A classic self-fulfilling prophecy that has absolutely nothing to do with the strength or otherwise of the arguments, but is just to do with 'uncertainty', irrespective of whether there is any reason to be uncertain. But as SC says, eventually the balance sheet will reveal who is right. And it won't matter one jot to SC if his informant is shown not to have a clue - he and his followers will have made their money and moved on by then ...

Sadly, the situation has not been helped by AVN's really rather arrogant refusal to engage with shareholders.

I rather suspect we will have to see some quarterly returns before the market really knows what to make of AVN ...

[superg1] 03/5/2011 13:25

I was meaning the share price claims post launch £10 plus on the day. Hylas 1 to produce £400m to £500m PA for Avanti. whats true about any of that.

brokers had factored in £5.71 for hylas 1.

Dregor on iii posting contacts between iii and AVN were blocking any negativity.

RDG claiming to know inside information about Hylas 3 funding and contracts claiming his brother in law worked for Avanti.

The price seemed artificially high for just Hylas 1 up and the hype crew imo were trying to trap PI's into buying in the high 700's.

As you know with small companies shares can be difficult to sell if you have high numbers and no-one is buying. Hype is how pump and dump crews work.

But clearly back in Nov/Dec the claims were way beyond the short term truth.

Just like the broker that caused so much debate when they said sell. If people won't answer questions and they happen to be the company you want to invest in how can you trust them.

I see talk of some sort of court case now (iii and AVN). What's that all about?
I know nothing about it I'm just picking up on chat on iii. So it may be pure specualtion by someone.

I know I and a few others raised some points on the connection between the two.

I'm just a novice PI trying to make a bit of cash. AVN was tipped to me so I looked and told the person who tipped it too me to sell first thing Monday morning post launch.

Absolutely first class bit of advice imo as where is it now. I wonder how many are trapped in those 700's waiting for the promised short term gains.

Just ny opinion and it all came to pass.

[garymott] 03/5/2011 13:10

sugerg1,

I have read every single one of your posts (of which there have been many) on this BB in which you believed and clearly still do that the BOD is corrupt. Nothing in recent months has substantiated this.

Initially I thought you perhaps had some great insight here but I no longer do. It is clear that you know nothing more than the rest of us.

Please let me know of anything in my posts which you regard of as "spreading untruths".

[rwilliams57] 03/5/2011 12:45

sorry £132m

[rwilliams57] 03/5/2011 12:43

Simon, I think Garymott deserves an answer which is factual. Your informant gives out various numbers which vary considerable. Why should you or the rest of us take any notice of what you say? If he is "right" which set of numbers he peddlea are "right".

Could it be the last set which imply a total bandwidth of 132Mb from H1 and H2?

[yorgi] 03/5/2011 12:03

Yes it is Gary but he will continue as long as he has the momentum and is making money and he will continue to ignore the truth or facts.