Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[argy2] 23/3/2011 10:47

I agree yorgi. The dilemma will be if he closes his short and then goes long and the share price rises! What do we then say? We can but dream.

[yorgi] 23/3/2011 10:43

Yes Argy with hindsight I would also have sold out around 750p and be buying back now.....if only :-) If only I had some cash spare I would have added this morning.....but alas not the case. We will have to agree to disagree on whether some sing the praises of SC :-)

[mechanical trader] 23/3/2011 10:43

Latest telecoms news : Ofcom, Avanti Communications, Tangent
15/03/2011 by ukcitymedia.co.uk about : Company Reports - 0 Comments - 349 words



Ofcom has announced a reduction in mobile termination rates, the wholesale charges that mobile operators make to other busines to business operators to connect calls to networks, designed to benefit UK end users - consumers.

From 1 April, Ofcom is to place a cap on rates charged by all four national mobile network operators, Vodafone, 3UK, O2, Everything Everywhere. The cap should lead to around an 80% reduction in termination rates over the next four years with cheaper landline services and more choice.

Broadband satellite operator Avanti Communications Group has formally completed in orbit testing of the HYLAS 1 satellite yesterday confirmed to be working in conformance with specification and, in some areas, delivering higher performance than originally specified.

The satellite lifetime is expected to be at least six months greater than planned as David Williams, Chief Executive added "Avanti now provides a range of satellite data communications services to consumers, enterprise and governmental organisations across the UK and Europe... we are highly confident of achieving rapid commercial success for this powerful and flexible satellite."

Avanti also announced a new seven year contract with a new unamed Virtual Network Operator Customer for the sale of 80 Mb of capacity. Contract is worth €7.1m over the seven year term and customer has approximately 3,000 satellite broadband end user installations in Europe.

"Avanti has announced a steady flow of contract wins in the last two years which underpins our confidence in fully utilising our satellites at attractive prices" added David Williams.

Tangent Communications has provided an update on trading in advance of its prelim results announcement expected to be published in May indicating that full year revenues, profits are expected to be ahead of current expectations, before exceptional items.

The second half of the 2010-11 financial year has progressed with profits ahead of the same period in the prior year. Company also launched services for Carlsberg UK and appointed to roll out across Carlsberg Europe with planned installations for Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland during 2011.

[argy2] 23/3/2011 10:33

yorgi

Not sure people are particularly singing his praises but just commenting on the fact that to date he has called the share price right. Like any tipster he tends to be judged on his performance and in this case he has called it right. The likes of TW are all quick to hail their winners and rarely comment on their disasters and as we know they all have them. EK too has his howlers, apart from horse and footy tips. For example he regularly gets ASOS wrong and readily admits to losing £250k on that one prior to his current 'short' which is also losing him lots. What upsets us more is that so far he has been right about AVN whereas many of us are 'long and wrong'. With the benefit of hindsight I could have sold much higher and be buying many more back at today's price. That's life.

[malcolmmm] 23/3/2011 10:21

Link to full report

[yorgi] 23/3/2011 10:18

I do find it hard to see why so many sing the praises of SC just because he has made money and is quite wealthy. Just because someone makes money do they deserve praise, no not always it depends how they have made it or obtained it.

Gadaffi and Kenneth Noye are wealthy as was Saddam Hussein do they deserve admiration ?

In my opinion SC has contributed to the fall in the AVN share price and in doing so has made himself a lot of money for himself and those that follow him in the process. Only time will tell for sure whether his argument is right or wrong but one thing I'm certain of if he is proved wrong in the long run, with AVN making big profits and the share price rising rapidly I doubt he will stand up and admit he was wrong.

[geheimnis2] 23/3/2011 10:09

thanks for the ED report

very helpful to clear up the pricing issue

unsurprisingly cawky was telling fibs

[yorgi] 23/3/2011 10:07

Ok got that wrong going down again ;-(

[yorgi] 23/3/2011 10:06

Argy quite clear recovery, was 440 now 446 ! Ok a few hundred to go I grant you but heading in the right direction at this moment in time :-)

[malcolmmm] 23/3/2011 10:05

Dear MALCOLM,
Here is our latest analyst report on Avanti Communications:
Avanti Communications is the only licensed Fixed Satellite Services operator headquartered in the UK. Avanti sells satellite broadband services to telecoms companies which use them to supply residential, enterprise and institutional users. Avanti's first geostationary satellite, HYLAS 1, is the first superfast broadband satellite launched in Europe.
Despite the successful launch of HYLAS 1 in November 2010 and the completion of formal in-orbit testing earlier in March 2011 – in the course of which the satellite was found to have exceeded specification in a number of parameters – the Avanti share price performance has been disappointing recently.
In terms of contracts, Avanti has reported good news flow over the past three months. A change from the company's previously-used metric of pre-sold ca pacity to the industry standard contracted backlog has raised suspicions in some quarters which are unwarranted.
Avanti is in a good position, with two satellites fully funded, a very strong balance sheet with no debt service payments or cash flow covenants falling due until December 2012. Additionally, Avanti launches with Arianespace, which has now experienced zero launch failures in 40 consecutive launches.
Thus we maintain our valuation of Avanti at £1,059m, equating to 1,319p per share.


Download full report click here

[argy2] 23/3/2011 09:59

Intriqued by your idea of a recovery.

[mechanical trader] 23/3/2011 09:57

Staging a recovery now that the news is breaking.

[mechanical trader] 23/3/2011 09:56

Convinced me.

Conclusion

The recently advanced bear case against Avanti does not hold up, nor apparently
do suggestions of analyst avoidance: we checked with company management
who confirmed that all analysts following the shares are invited to presentations.
Furthermore, the most critical recent commentator had indeed been given a one
to one meeting and encouraged to relay further questions in writing.
Avanti‟s reluctance to disclose commercially sensitive information explains why
some questions cannot be addressed in the public domain. Other issues raised
concerning the company‟s shift to reporting industry standard backlog metrics,
the doubts over the size of the market and the suggested competition within it,
are all addressable and refutable.

Thus we are happy to maintain our valuation of Avanti Communications at
£1,059m, or 1,319p per share.

[dougie471] 23/3/2011 09:56

im very impressed with Equity developments research note released this morning. if i wasnt heavily invested in Avanti and read that note in detail this morning i would be a strong buyer rather than a strong holder. unfortunatly cant allocate any more funds at this level although was temped about 10 minutes ago.

the company will prove the doubters wrong in the long term. unfortunately the bear raid has occurred at a very weak time in general for AIM stocks with the recent flee from risk and positions being closed coming up to the end of the tax year so there has been general selling. I haev to admit i got this wrong not taking profits after launch but im here and im holding. The buyers will return.

unfortunately evil has had his day and made a substantial profit out of Avanti. maybe he wil go long now and double his profits (or more)

[superg1] 23/3/2011 09:55

AVN has had plenty of press about it. All seem to go on about whjat a bargain it is.

Shares drop for a reason. I keep seeing the referance to good news. What good news??????????????????.

The share price has always reflected Hylas 1 going up and full capacity. If it was anticipated it wouldn't work or blow up it would have been 50p until it succesfully launched.

Brokers suggested £5.71 for a full capacity Hylas 1 yet it hit the high 700's.

Then surprise when it falls back????. SC is no genius it was obvious and furthermore he could create the trend by heavily shorting it.

The true revenues form Hylas 1 are unknown. It all depends whether customers are willing to pay quoted prices and what competiton exists..

Hylas 1 is quoted as reaching capacity in 3 years, when in theory it should hit it's share value £5.71 (that may have chnaged).

Hylas 2 will obviously change things.

Does anyone know how they are going to fund Hylas 3. Institutions won't be willing to buy in on a share issue at this price for that funding, so that may be the reason for the fall. Behind the scenes perhaps this is being discussed.

To raise the funds via a share issue could me a big dilution. Perhaps that is what is causing the problem. Funding for Hylas 3 is not clear so confidence is waning.

Just a thought but shorting and director buys over and it continues down. There is always a reason and PI@s are always the last to find out why

[2350220] 23/3/2011 09:49

Hate to say it, but he has made far more money by going short when he did, than I'm ever going to make by having held my long position . . . average around 600 - 640 ish, ouch.

John

[argy2] 23/3/2011 09:44

"Hes got it wrong this time."

The guy is substantially ahead with his 'short' whether for the right reason or not, so from his bank manager's point of view he has not got it 'wrong' just at the moment.

[mechanical trader] 23/3/2011 09:39

argy, yep, ive seen him cling onto stocks but I think this time his source has got it totaly wrong.

Of course he'l try to save face, but that article spells it out. Hes got it wrong this time.

got a lot of respect for him actually and done very well on some of his shorts........ and longs for that matter. Sound guy in my opinion.

[mechanical trader] 23/3/2011 09:35

Rebounding back now.

[argy2] 23/3/2011 09:34

mechanical trader - 23 Mar'11 - 09:22 - 4719 of 4721

Talk of Evil closing over the road??.


Not for the first time. It was false information that time so be careful.

[tsmith2] 23/3/2011 09:31

where's over the road..

[yorgi] 23/3/2011 09:24

Say more Mechanical ? We have not heard from him here since the weekend but he may well have something to say soon.

[mechanical trader] 23/3/2011 09:22

Talk of Evil closing over the road??.