Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[tsmith2] 31/3/2011 08:44

ouch!

gg - I'm taking encouragement by the way the graph is beginning to take shape..

[argy2] 31/3/2011 08:12

gg

With your holding that comes as no surprise!

[greengiant] 31/3/2011 08:10

I don't think I have ever seen this situation before. Directors (and Caledonia) over the past 6 weeks have invested a significant sum in the company and the market has really shown them the finger. Either the market is massively wrong or the directors (and Caledonia) believe their own hype.

My guess would be the directors are more knowledgeable about the product than the thousands who make up the market.

gg

[tsmith2] 31/3/2011 07:45

more dirs buying..!

[greengiant] 30/3/2011 15:52

Rwilliams, you are quite right about the dcf model, it also requires accuracy on the capital costs and revenue flows of future cash flows. Obviously the discount rate is of significant importance due to the fact that this is what influences the time value of money. However, the company has a very good idea of what it's WACC is, so at this moment I would be happy with the dcf basis. But of course a companies WACC And therefore it's discount rate can and usually does change over time. Nice to have a quiet thread tho'

Gg

[rwilliams57] 30/3/2011 15:46

The issue about the IC article is the share price. Avanti are a good company with great potential. By normal metrics, the forward P/E is somewhere 50-60. I am not sure I buy the notion of valuing it on a DCF basis. That needs a guess about the discount rate to use.

[greengiant] 30/3/2011 12:24

Some interesting reading to back up Eutelsats view on S America and where Hylas 3 will point.



gg

[yorgi] 29/3/2011 21:48

Good find Greengiant :-)

[greengiant] 29/3/2011 17:28

Amazing when reading this article about the demand. The market has huge potential



gg

[yorgi] 29/3/2011 16:00

I would have thought yesterdays RNS that Caledonia Investments plc had added considerably to their holding would have a had a good positive affect on the share price but no sign of it yet. The Investors Chronicle article does comment on how expensive AVN is but quality has to be paid for and AVN are getting closer now to starting to reap the rewards of the large investment required to start this business off. As pointed out demand is going to outstrip supply for some time to come and AVN will be well established in the market before any new competition will come along.

[gorvachof] 29/3/2011 13:15

Thanks greengiant, think there may have been some optimistic tarrif rates posted by some previously.

A small comment



Lefter-of-field

Looking further afield, some interesting names crop up on my list of stocks that have fallen by more than 10 per cent over the past month. Avanti Communications' shares are a very long way off their peak levels of over 700p, but this satellite broadband specialist is beginning to look interesting. The new Hylus 1 satellite is beginning to create some powerful cash flows and I think as Avanti strengthens its franchise within the infrastructure space, it'll become a takeover target for a bigger predator who wants a more developed business without the risk of launching new satellites. The downside is that Avanti is hideously expensive on any terrestrial valuation metric.

[greengiant] 29/3/2011 07:42

10 minutes on the TV last night talking to Michel de Rosen about Ka Sat and demand. He believes that the rapid uptake of services thus far will lead to Eutelsat launching another Ka Satellite in the next couple of years. Demand is currently exceeds supply by a multiple of 8x and growing as Eastern European and South American countries are the countries where demand is growing fastest.

gg

[greengiant] 28/3/2011 19:03

Gorvachof,

Lots of different prices at the moment, for example, the 500kb/sec with 3GB limit is currently at E21 through a reseller that I know and the 4MB cost with a 8GB limit is currently E68, so whoever the author of the article is using is charging too much. Too much uncertainty regarding standard prices at the moment, also Tooway have not finalised their costings for all regions, this is expected to be finalised June 2011.

The best thing at the moment IMHO would be to follow the directors - the have the best indication of how it is selling.

gg

[gorvachof] 28/3/2011 18:03

greengiant - 27 Mar'11 - 09:22 - 4833 of 4853

I notice in the article you posted it says,

"A 500Kb/sec connection via HYLAS 1 will cost, from reseller Europe Satellite, €25 a month with a cap of 3GB every month. A more-reasonable 4Mb/sec (enough for some iPlayer goodness) will set one back €81 a month and comes capped at 8GB (so not too much iPlayer goodness)"

Is this correct? From what I remember, people have been quoting rather diferent tarrif rates than this?

[blue forever] 28/3/2011 17:14

Anyone got a view on why Avanti now say they " will no longer issue press releases for SVNO customers via RNS "?

[melody9999] 28/3/2011 16:22

Plasterkey - the chart at the top of the thread says the opposite. Nice tick ups from Apr 09 to Jan 11 after which it broke support and in just 2 months has lost 50% of the gains in the previous 21 months.

[backmarker] 28/3/2011 15:43

this is good news from CLDN. AVN was already one of their largest holdings, so this top-up confirms their confidence.

I understand the CLDN CEO is on the AVN board as a NED, so is in a good position to judge. but I cannot imagine the CLDN board would approve this increase if they were not totally convinced.

of course, this doesn't guarantee they're not ALL wrong. but what are the odds of that ?

[pojscott] 28/3/2011 13:45

Showing red again--every time we have good news the bl---- share price goes down, the most frustrating stock I have ever held!

[plasterkay] 28/3/2011 12:29

Patience is required here. Having owed these share myself, since 2006, I would say that at least 80% of the time all they've ever done is tick down. It's the short quick rallys, in the other 20%, that sent it from under £1.50 to the giddy heights of over £7.50. I wouldn't be surprised at all if £10 is breached sometime this year. It would be only following form if it did.

[yorgi] 28/3/2011 11:49

Good news, yes £3m is a significant addition without doubt.

Thats good Colva keep spreading the word :-)

[greengiant] 28/3/2011 10:20

Just short of 700k shares bought, assuming average 4.50 paid per share amounts to them spending another £3m. With a board director looks like a massive indication of support.

gg

[marksnsparkle] 28/3/2011 10:11

tsmith2 ... looks like they had 13.7% (11,636,956) and have now increased to 15.2% (12,320,000)

[tsmith2] 28/3/2011 10:06

Caledonia Investments - upping holding significantly..?