Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[argy2] 03/3/2011 12:43

tsmith2

Why?

[tsmith2] 03/3/2011 12:36

could be a good afternoon..

[argy2] 03/3/2011 11:54

yorgi

I suspect either SC or TW will be quick to tell us. I think Volvo is copying SC and telling porkies.

[22condor] 03/3/2011 11:52

Fairly solid director buying in the last month - about 80k shares picked up.

[yorgi] 03/3/2011 11:27

It could well have been Greyseal but I had not read it before.

However for the moment he has gone quiet Argy, SC I mean.

EDIT

From SC's post yesterday @ 9.13

"Gentlemen,

I stress that all the above is written and issued by Investec. Please also note that the 488p target price has been achieved (this morning). I have not yet received a TP update. However, I am not buying to close since momentum is now with the bears. Besides, I think the economic outlook for AVN is not good."

[argy2] 03/3/2011 11:22

VOLVO - 2 Mar'11 - 19:48 - 4044 of 4065


Its offical our football pundit hs closed his short.

Also official is Cenkos is about to put out a detailed response to Investec to answer all the their questions.

I suspect Volvo has his own agenda.

[greyseal] 03/3/2011 11:15

Wasn't this one posted a week or so ago? And so I cant see Cenkos posting another as Volvo thought. Did you mean this one Volvo?

[yorgi] 03/3/2011 11:11

Thank you Billy, I had not read this one so much appreciated.

[billytkid2] 03/3/2011 11:00

The last Cenkos report was this:

Decimal point in the wrong place

Avanti's share price has fallen to a seven month low on the back of the aggressive
promotion of ideas based on misunderstandings of HYLAS 1 and HYLAS 2 and
Avanti's competitive positioning. These concerns rest on a number of inaccuracies
regarding the satellites' specifications and the premise that Avanti will compete headto-
head with Eutelsat's Ka-Sat. This provides an excellent buying opportunity for
investors as both these positions are wrong and we are confident the shares will rally
strongly on the back of inaugural HYLAS 1 sales next month and on-going contract
wins. We are confident that investors will quadruple their investment over the next
two years. BUY
Capacity comparisons unfounded
Commentators have suggested that Eutelsat's Ka-Sat has 70 GB of capacity versus HYLAS
1's 3 GB. Comparing GBs with GHz is not a straightforward comparison. HYLAS 1 & 2 will
have 11.25 GHz of capacity compared with Ka-Sat's 40 GHz, implying that Ka-Sat is 3.6x
bigger. However, comparisons should be made strictly on the basis of a satellite's forward
path capacity. In this respect, Ka-Sat is a symmetrical satellite with 20 GHz of upward path
and 20 GHz of forward path. However, HYLAS 1 & 2 will be asymmetrical with 8 GHz of
forward path versus 3.25 GHz of upward path. This simply reflects the fact that consumers
download far more than they upload from the internet. As a result Ka-Sat will only be 2.5x
that of HYLAS 1 & 2. Furthermore, the differential between the two will be less than the
nameplate capacity and HYLAS 1 is a flexible payload covering a greater geographic area
that includes North Africa and the Middle East. This should enable Avanti to achieve
superior utilisation rates.
Revenue assumptions are therefore wrong
Following on from this, the bears have then claimed that given the discrepancy in capacity,
HYLAS1 will be unable to meet our annualised revenue run rate of £45m as Eutelsat's
previous CEO guided that Ka-Sat will deliver €100m of sales in 2013. Hughes, which was
recently purchased by EchoStar, has delivered $183m of consumer broadband sales from a
satellite just twice as big as HYLAS 1. Avanti still need to sign-up new contracts to achieve
our FY12 forecasts, however due to the strength of their offering we have a high degree of
confidence that they will outperform.
Pricing pressure unlikely given market potential
Numerous independent studies have highlighted strong demand for broadband in rural
areas across the Middle East, N Africa and Europe. The European Commission estimates
that 30m homes cannot receive effective broadband through existing terrestrial
infrastructure. Given that HYLAS 1 & 2 and Ka-Sat will only be able to serve approximately
2.5m homes between them, it is unlikely that either operator will incur pricing pressure due
to direct competition. Furthermore, Eutelsat is largely focused on France whereas Avanti is selling capacity to the wider European market.

[yorgi] 03/3/2011 10:55

Not yet Restassured is it out then ? I assume you are talking about the Cenkos update ?

[restassured] 03/3/2011 10:51

Anyone seen the report?

Are the heavy artillery being positioned?

[superg1] 03/3/2011 10:05

Rest always seems to claim everyone is a criminal.

But I agree with him wholeheartedly that such persons should be in jail.

In reality the whole system of dealing with wrong doing is stretched beyond it's capabilities.

I note from yesterday there was critisism of the percentage of organised criminal gangs that are dealt with.

6000 organised gangs 6 thouuusssssand. Those are the one's they know of. That's the serious stuff never mind anything else.

There is no way they can all be seriously looked at. The banks continue to make multi billions and pay bonuses, yet the sectors that swim against the tide of wrongdoing are being squeezed to death, making it open season for these guys.

Such is life.

[yorgi] 03/3/2011 09:56

Not exactly sky blue but blue none the less :-)

[yorgi] 03/3/2011 09:44

Quite probably perfectly timed Ukinvestor :-)

[jonnyno1] 03/3/2011 09:30

i have no problem with shorters, in fact i think they are necessary function of an efficient market. if you do the research and find that company A is failing to live up to expectations and the market has not recognised that then there should be a mechanism for selling the shares, ie stock borrowing. afterall markets are about buyers and sellers!

if they get their research wrong then suffer the consequences which in this case could be anytime soon.

duff information reminds me of when...
del boy gets given boycie's nicked statelite dish. He thought it was kushti. Thought he could sell it back to Boycie for a few quid. A nice little earner!
turned out his knowledge wasn't kushti and that the statelite dish wasnt boycie's at all,in fact it wasn't even statelite dish... cue the jumbo jet flying o'er Nelson Mandella House ....now that was comedy!

j.

[ukinvestor220] 03/3/2011 09:18

im glad i filled my boots yesterday too ..

[protean] 03/3/2011 08:47

A lot of recent director buying:

23rd Feb - John Brackenbury (Chairman) - 8998 @ 549.75
23rd Feb - David Williams (CEO) - 17997 @ 549.75
25th Feb - David Bestwick (Director) - 30000 @ 504
25th Feb - David Williams (CEO) - 20000 @ 504
25th Feb - Alan Foster (Director) - 10610 @ 500
28th Feb - William Wyatt (Director) - 7000 @ 501
1st Mar - Nigel Fox (Finance Director) - 9780 @ 506

[argy2] 03/3/2011 08:21

From his imagination?

[colva] 03/3/2011 08:12

VOLVO

Where did you get your official info ?

[protean] 03/3/2011 07:33

"Yesterday was also a fun day for Avanti Communications AVN). Evil Knievil went publicly short posting comments on ADVFN (I refused to run them on t1ps as they contained just too many factual errors). What I had not realised was that his calculations, such as they were, had a decimal point in the wrong place. His informant was clearly illiterate (the note EK posted was strewn with errors) and also (see below) technically clueless. I had not realised at the time that he was innumerate as well. An interesting combination for someone purporting to be an investment analyst. What with also confusing MegaHertz and MegaBits the sums were – not to put too fine a point on it – all wrong. But once the old boy has an idea in his head there is no stopping him so off he went. Call me cynical but there was only one way to react – we bought a stack more Avanti for the SF t1ps Growth Fund.

Now some CEOs huff and puff and threaten lawyers when Evil goes off shorting and publishes factually incorrect material in support of his claims. But David Williams of Avanti has more style than that. A Welshie with style and flair, whatever next. Williams responded by buying £100,000 of Avanti shares in the market (his chairman also bought £50,000) – which is a material sum for him. But as a coup de grace he asked me to pass on a note to Evil:

Dear Tom

Please extend an invitation to lunch in Shoreditch on my behalf to Mr Cawkwell. His informant, whom I presume is not an astrophysicist, got his decimal point in the wrong place and as a result I was able to buy £100,000 of shares at the wrong price so it seems polite to thank him.

David

That is pretty cool as you would expect from a CEO based in Rivington Street (Avanti's offices are in the street after which RSH is named). A few more shorts on the basis of maths with decimal points in the wrong place plus a stream of factual errors and Evil will start to need free food if he is not to waste away.

On a wider level, when a CEO invests £1000 or even £5,000 in buying shares in his company I regard that as window dressing. But when he or she writes out a cheque which is a very material part of his annual salary that can ONLY mean he ( or she) thinks the shares have real value. The Rivington Street CEOs have made their intentions clear."

[johnrxx99] 03/3/2011 04:12

Whatever the debate on here, the simple fact is we, nor anyone else, actually knows the state of the order book other than the directors and senior guys and gals in AVN.

It would not be the first time that a company has indicated orders arer firm when in fact they are conditional or indeed fake. All of us have probably had a bad experience in that respect, I know I've had several over the last 20 years.

So it's a gamble. I'm loosing quite a lot here on paper but it's 5% of my holdings and a flutter now and again is ok - wouldn't choose football though.

We have a rather good bit of kit above our heads with a team of professionals who have got it there. They got the funding so I assume they know what they're doing as I don't know them personally.

So it all comes down to hard facts and cash flow. We aint got any and won't have for quite a few months. So guys, chill, you won't loose everything on this one imo but if you want a fast buck, bad luck - move on.

[colva] 03/3/2011 03:53

Investec are trying to make out that AVN have misled investors by including the value of a contract in the order book when the customer has only paid for the option to take the capacity - whether this option should have been included or not is debatable but it is clear from the RNS 14 fEB that there was no attempt to mislead.

from the RNS 14 fEB.

" Customers make firm irrevocable commitments to buy a specific amount of bandwidth at fixed prices and duration. In one exception, the order book includes one transaction with an institutional customer structured as an option over which the first instalment payment has been received".

[gnnmartin] 02/3/2011 23:30

Chris, thanks.
Nigel Martin

[chris stevens] 02/3/2011 20:55

Nigel - 4033

I think this is the type of contract you are talking about where £280k has been paid for the option. I doubt many would agree a firm contact this large when the satellite has not been built and so much can change in say 2 years.

RNS
27 April, 2010 - 09:00
Avanti Communications Group plc (AIM: AVN), the broadband satellite operator, is pleased to announce that it has signed a contract with a Government customer for the sale of an option over specific capacity on the HYLAS 2 satellite, which serves the Middle East, Africa and Europe.

Under the option, which is structured as a Right of First Refusal valid for three years, the customer may purchase a specific amount of capacity on HYLAS 2 which, if fully exercised, will be worth up to £113.4 million to Avanti over a three year period. In return, Avanti will receive an option fee of £280,000. The contract price per MHz is significantly higher than previous sales.

The Agreement also contemplates further collaboration between the two parties in relation to other capacity on the HYLAS fleet.

Commenting on the contract, David Williams, Avanti Chief Executive, said:

"This is our third sale of capacity on Hylas 2, just three months after we financed and two years before it is launched in 2012. This contract provides further clear demonstration of the exceptional demand for our very scarce resource – at good prices – and our ability to execute our sales strategy."
.

[chrissey] 02/3/2011 20:08

I agree, AVN at 5 x current mcap is just crumpled up bacofoil in the sky!