Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[greengiant] 02/3/2011 19:55

How is it official?

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 19:54

What is your source Volvo ?

Yes, your right it is a strange ol world :-)

[volvo] 02/3/2011 19:48

Its offical our football pundit hs closed his short.

Also official is Cenkos is about to put out a detailed response to Investec to answer all the their questions.

Strange ol world investing.

[colva] 02/3/2011 17:13

yorgi

yes we need H1 in service and a steady flow of contracts - 12 months from now we,l be looking forward to the launch of H2 and the share price should be well north of here.

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 16:55

I'm sure your right Colva up nearer the £10 mark for the time being I would think is nearer the mark. But always worth remembering that once the satellites are up and in service the major expense is past and then the revenue rolls in.

[restassured] 02/3/2011 16:53

Not according to at least two analysts.



Ahummanahummana

[colva] 02/3/2011 16:48

5 x AVN,s mkt cap would be 2bn pounds or $3.25bn .

Hughes,s sat was twice the size of H1 and generating revenue of 180m pounds or $295m and the take-out price was $2bn or 1.2bn pounds.

I hold plenty of these and will do for the longer term - but 25 pounds is a few years away.

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 16:32

Well, we have closed going up lets hope that continues tomorrow !

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 15:59

FT Article

[restassured] 02/3/2011 15:55

Just cost average in.

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 15:52

And now 5 x the current share price......Got to be a good risk reward ratio surely !

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 15:50

Daniel Stewart

Avanti Communications set to soar
Date: Monday 14 Feb 2011


Satellite operator Avanti Communications is being transformed this year and the benefits will show through in the next financial year.

During the period the HYLAS 1 satellite was placed in orbit. It is operating at 1db higher power than expected. HYLAS 2 is being built and the financing of HYLAS 3 is being arranged.

Revenues fell from £3.26m to £1.28m in the six months to December 2010, while higher costs meant that the loss jumped from £440,000 to £6.31m. Avanti is winding down its older satellite activities and concentrating on the Ka band services of its HYLAS 1 satellite. This will show through in revenues next year.

The order book is worth £229m. That is orders for both HYLAS 1 and HYLAS 2. The average length of HYLAS 1 contracts is 7.2 years. HYLAS 2 contracts are shorter but still average 4.3 years.

Avanti had $64.9m in the bank at the end of 2010, while debt was £90.9m. Even so, interest costs are low. HYLAS 1 will be highly cash generative once it starts building up its revenues and that debt will come down relatively quickly depending on how much is spent on the other satellites.

Broker Daniel Stewart points to EchoStar's $2bn, including debt, purchase of Hughes Communications as giving an indication of Avanti's true value. Hughes is also involved in Ka band and has bought capacity outside of the US from Avanti. Daniel Stewart reckons that a similar valuation to Hughes would underpin its target price of 2525p a share – still four times the current share price.

AIM-quoted Avanti is expected to lose money in the year to June 2011 and then move into profit in 2011-12.

HYLAS 2 should be launched in the middle of 2012.

[restassured] 02/3/2011 15:46

Broker Daniel Stewart points to EchoStar's $2bn, including debt, purchase of Hughes Satellite Communications as giving an indication of Avanti's true value. Hughes is also involved in Ka band and has bought capacity outside of the US from Avanti. Daniel Stewart reckons that a similar valuation to Hughes would underpin its target price of 2525p a share


It is called comparables,the same way your house is valued.


Simples

[gnnmartin] 02/3/2011 15:44

The Investec assertion that the orders are mostly only options, not firm commitments, is significant if true. (see SCs post 3968) I've scanned back through the announcements and can see no hint at all that they are other than firm orders.
Nigel Martin

[restassured] 02/3/2011 15:42

Read the Daniel Stewart report.

[colva] 02/3/2011 15:37

rest

are you making a comparison between the Hughes take-out price and AVN,s price.

[restassured] 02/3/2011 15:22

Ermm yes £25 from £5

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 15:22

That told us :-(

[greengiant] 02/3/2011 15:20

Can we stop harping on about SC? His initial note was so thoroughly trashed that he very quickly forgot fundamentals and went to "feelings". This undermined his whole argument. Then, because the directors were showing their faith in the company by buying shares, he quickly posted another snippet of a research note, which again has been so thoroughly torn to bits. Personally, I don't give 2 hoots about the man, I am happy with my research and if the share price drops in the short term because of the actions of a few, I really don't care, I am after long term growth.

In the meantime, under capacity and excess demand will mean that Avanti should have no problems in answering Investec's concerns regarding whether it can fill it's satellites.

Gg

[colva] 02/3/2011 15:17

rest

500% disparity ?

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 15:06

Well whatever the reason is we are peeping up over the 500p wall again :-) Another 500p would be very nice :-))

[yorgi] 02/3/2011 15:02

Simon,

Thanks for those thoughts. I do however think the company should stand up to SC (Evil) and point out that he is wrong. That is the problem he has built up a reputation from times when he was right that even when he is wrong he can still have a bearing on manipulating the market even if it does only turn out to be on a temporary basis. That is clearly wrong as I'm quite sure it will have cost some people money and when that is a result of false information.

I agree with your last comment Malcolmmm

[malcolmmm] 02/3/2011 14:52

Perhaps before analysts who work for big trust funds etc who do not have the expertise in a certain area, should not be allowed to publish unless their analysis is checked for accuracy by experts in that area especially when they have the power to manipulate the share price for their own and friends gain.
On the back of Investics report the share price has fallen dramatically, if the report is wrong then imo they should be investigated

[restassured] 02/3/2011 14:50

Thank you for the lesson in investing.

Lol

What stage are you at? Passively delusional.

[simon gordon] 02/3/2011 14:48

Yorgi,

Evil has been fortunate that the Investec note came out, for as you say he had little real "factual" ammo to fire at the stock. Now he and other bears have got the Investec note to spread doubt, hence the house broker should do a note to refute the Investec argument.

It is doubtful any company who would want to start a war with Evil as it would draw too much negative attention and there would be scars, better to let him feast and move on. Though with his track record, on the stocks I follow, I would dig like hell if I held AVN, especially speak to journalists at satellite/communications magazines and industry experts who might blog or write articles.