Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[kirkuk] 02/11/2010 19:12

If the launch is a success I think there will be a large number of contracts confirmed which should take it up quite nicely.

[sco77harris] 02/11/2010 15:44

you dont have to wear a 10,000 quid suit to give advice, but it dosent hurt to look like youve actually showered in the last week or learnt how to use a hair drier.

[share_shark] 02/11/2010 14:30

Iraq Telecoms 2010 attracts over 250 key players to Istanbul
Posted on 01 November 2010.

[someuwin] 02/11/2010 10:02

16 trading days to go...

[sco77harris] 02/11/2010 09:41

i actually feel like emailing him, i mean look at his glasses they look wonkey, his shirts undone like half way down, and his hairs all ruffled. Pretty pathetic, if someone came to me like that i wouldnt listen to much

[ib1905] 02/11/2010 08:30

Thank goodness we have TW onside - it's making all the difference....

[share_shark] 02/11/2010 08:07

Thank you marksnsparkle.

[sco77harris] 01/11/2010 20:47

lol he looks like he just got out of bed

[colva] 01/11/2010 16:39

These are the broker notes ( from Friday ) , both Cenkos and Jefferies are AVN brokers.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CENKOS.

Buying opportunity

We feel weakness is a buying opportunity as it does not affect the Avanti HYLAS 1 launch for the following reasons:

 The Ariane 5 launch was successful yesterday
 The other satellite on the Ariane 5 launcher, Lockheed Martin's BSAT-3b (to be used for Japanese TV), was deployed and is functioning perfectly
 The EutelSat satellite failed after separating from the launcher due to a component failure
 Avanti's satellite has a different manufacturer and no commonality to the EutelSat satellite
 The EutelSat satellite failed due to a 'single point of failure' with its propulsion system which would suggest a manufacturing or design error. Avanti's satellite has a more traditional propulsion system which has backup systems making a similar failure highly unlikely to occur.

The price movement today would imply that the market is still pricing in the risk of a launch failure. Therefore post launch and commissioning of Hylas 1 the share price should react positively. BUY.

-----ENDS-----

JEFFERIES.

Limited Read Across from the Loss of Eutelsat W3B

Event

Eutelsat announced its satellite, W3B, which launched yesterday has been lost due to a specific motor issue.

Key Points

• Eutelsat announced this morning it has lost the W3B satellite that was launched yesterday evening from the same launch system (Arianspace 5) Hylas-1 is due to launch from on November 25th. W3B had an anomaly on the satellite's propulsion system which caused the loss of control of the satellite.
• It was a successful launch, the issue is specific to W3B. The Arian 5 rocket successfully transported the payload into orbit, the telemetry issue arose after the satellite detached from the rocket when the motor failed and telemetry control was lost. The same issue is unlikely to arise for Avanti as different component manufacturers are used.
• Redundancy systems are in place for Avanti. Being its first satellite to launch, Avanti has taken precautions to guard against such failures. There are multiple propulsion motors on Hylas-1 significantly decreasing the chances of a similar problem occurring.
• We expect the event to bring launch risk to the front of investors' minds but note Avanti's share price has not strongly reacted to the news implying much of this risk is already priced in. We reiterate our Buy as direct read across to Avanti is limited and, as per our conversations with insurers, satellite failures are very rare.

-----ENDS-----

[marksnsparkle] 01/11/2010 16:00

someuwin ... interesting info, thanx for that

[someuwin] 01/11/2010 16:00

...Taken from today's comment on t1ps.com.

[sco77harris] 01/11/2010 15:57

where is this not from someuwin

thanks

[someuwin] 01/11/2010 15:35

Broker notes pointing out that a Eutelsat type failure is unlikely with Hylas...


* The EutelSat satellite failed due to a 'single point of failure' with its propulsion system which would suggest a manufacturing or design error. Avanti's satellite has a more traditional propulsion system which has backup systems making a similar failure highly unlikely to occur.

* Redundancy systems are in place for Avanti. Being its first satellite to launch, Avanti has taken precautions to guard against such failures. There are multiple propulsion motors on Hylas-1 significantly decreasing the chances of a similar problem occurring.

[jakes114] 01/11/2010 13:13

Its 600 pennies cant think that he is talking about anyone else though
we will see

[samenic] 01/11/2010 08:55

Please don't tempt providence............

[smarm] 31/10/2010 23:32

Re Penny Sleuth...

er...

"Fact is, a simple, positive news story can send a penny share like this one on a serious price climb."

Forgive me but since when was 600p a penny share?

S

[share_shark] 31/10/2010 22:37

From post 845 which appears to have been ignored and which I would have thought merited a comment or view.This is one reason I posted the many interesting links.

"W3B's co-passenger on the Ariane flight was BSat-3b, a TV services platform owned by Tokyo's B-Sat Corporation. It has not reported any problems".

Furthermore Eutelsat was fully insured against failure.

[marksnsparkle] 31/10/2010 18:10

sco77harris ... yea but don't forget Eutelsat Communications already has a lot of other satellites in opperation and another launch planned very soon ... Avanti doesn't have that luxury

The risk reward ratio here is very very good ... but if the risk does happen the effect will be like when a small cap oily drills a duster and I'll be selling not topping up because it will be a long wait until the Hylas 2 launch in 2012 :-)

Eutelsat Communications Satellites ....

[sco77harris] 31/10/2010 16:10

recouverd quite well though, i think if we do have a failed launch i would have to top up, as it will overshoot.

[marksnsparkle] 31/10/2010 10:38

share_shark .... yes the loss of the Eutelsat satellite has been a reminder that failure is an option ... and this quote from the article you posted above stood out

"Eutelsat Communications SA declined the most in almost two years in Paris trading after reporting the loss of its W3B satellite"