Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[johncsimpson] 26/6/2012 14:50

Re 156 - No probs ct

[johncsimpson] 26/6/2012 14:45

As an aside, anyone following my comments on BPC will have observed that from the time I first mentioned them towards the end of May (I can't be bothered looking back through the posts but my chart tells me it would have been about the 25th May), BPC rose roughly 40% - more if you bought at the lowest point in the cycle and sold at the highest. I then stated that I had sold all of my holdings (actually all sold by the 21st June). Now I didn't buy in at the lowest point and I didn't sell at the highest but my profit was still very good. In the same way I'd said the charts guided my buying, I also said they guided my selling (BPC now down over 15% since I sold and my charts say even more to fall) and this is all there pre the events happening. I mention it not because I'm bragging but because I seem to be fighting a one man crusade for chartists and here is one case that is documented on this thread where charting clearly has worked.

To redress the balance, my SXX, BOR and RMP observations have not faired as well, but nor have they bombed; they're about the same notwithstanding RMP who've had a couple of bad days. I'm still confident in all three and should they fall 10% or so from my buys I will (as things stand at the moment) top up.

RENE (also mentioned) has proven to be very volatile and is more of a punt and certainly not bought using too much chart information. But this is doing nicely too.

[cancun tango] 26/6/2012 14:28

John

I may have caused the confusion there. I mistakingly thought buywell was referring to an article that was relevant to Avanti.

For what its worth, this charting site is mostly bullish on AVN...

[johncsimpson] 26/6/2012 14:04

buywell

I may be having a bad day but I can't see how the FT article on Avanti posted above by cancun tango relates to your post 152:

Expect more of this , see link below .... Country was China and the company BAE

cancun tango

Thank you for the article.

Re indicators: those three 'day indicators' I use are all still positive.

At the moment, the simplified graph has the price line moving back towards the upper resistance line.

The heiken ashi graph produced a weakish confirmation signal yesterday morning (the green circle) but by the end of the day it had gone. As I think I said on Friday re the simplified graph, if I were at the start of my buying cycle / decision making instead of already part committed, I wouldn't actually be buying at the moment. I shan't commit any more funds until AVN breeches that 321ish area. As I've also said elsewhere on this thread I haven't ever seen so many 'false starts' in such a short period of time for a share that otherwise ticks all the (my) boxes.

This is all IMO and nothing is ever guaranteed with shares. If it were I wouldn't be here. Things can change rapidly with AVN in either directions and, in addition, these are difficult / volatile times.

[yorgi] 26/6/2012 13:56

Still nothing from the BOD but we are edging up a tad at the moment.

[cancun tango] 26/6/2012 13:01

John

FT article below. How are your indicators today?

25 Jun 2012 2:52pmAvanti to launch Africa-dedicated satelliteBy Andrew England in Johannesburg

Avanti Communications, an Aim-quoted company, is pinning its hopes on Africa's fast growth rates as it prepares to launch a satellite next month that will provide broadband internet services to southern and eastern Africa, the latest illustration of increasing international interest in the continent.

David Williams, chief executive of the satellite operator, told the Financial Times that 13 per cent of the capacity of the satellite, which also covers the Middle East, has been presold, adding the company planned to launch another satellite dedicated to Africa in 2015.

"It [Africa] has the biggest unmet demand, laying copper cable in Africa is very difficult, because it gets stolen ... the cost of laying high quality fibre optic cables is enormous and prohibitive in most of Africa and yet there's huge demand," Mr Williams said.

"Yes there are large populations of people who are very poor but there are also large populations of very economically active companies, and the people who work for them, who are not getting good service," he said

Avanti, which was founded in 2002, was launched with a view to serving Africa, but after struggling to raise funding for its plans for the continent, it launched the Hylas 1 satellite in November 2010, which covers Europe. The second satellite will cover southern and eastern Africa, while a third, Hylas 3, will serve Nigeria, Ghana and other west African nation states.

Avanti sells its capacity to telecommunications companies that can then use it to offer consumer broadband, bespoke networks for companies or governments, and so-called "IP trunking" services used to move large amounts of data.

Internet penetration in Africa is the lowest in the world and is less than half that of Asia and the Pacific. But it grew over 20-fold in the decade to 2010, from 0.5 per cent to 10.8 per cent, according to the International Telecommunication Union. Sub-Saharan Africa has also been enjoying growth rates above 5 per cent despite the global economic crisis.

Mr Williams said Avanti had already presold capacity that will be used in eight eastern and southern African nations, from South Sudan to Botswana, with its services being used by schools and banks in Kenya and mining companies in Zimbabwe.

In South Africa, Avanti is in discussions to use the broadband service to connect hundreds of government offices, while defence companies operating in Iraq and Afghanistan will also use the broadband connection.

The company has hired a sales manager in Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, ahead of the planned 2015 launch of Hylas 3 and will open offices in South Africa in August. Two more satellites to provide additional capacity to Africa and "fill in the gaps" have been designed but there is no timetable for their launch, Mr Williams said.

25 Jun 2012 2:52pmAvanti to launch Africa-dedicated satelliteBy Andrew England in Johannesburg

Avanti Communications, an Aim-quoted company, is pinning its hopes on Africa's fast growth rates as it prepares to launch a satellite next month that will provide broadband internet services to southern and eastern Africa, the latest illustration of increasing international interest in the continent.

David Williams, chief executive of the satellite operator, told the Financial Times that 13 per cent of the capacity of the satellite, which also covers the Middle East, has been presold, adding the company planned to launch another satellite dedicated to Africa in 2015.

"It [Africa] has the biggest unmet demand, laying copper cable in Africa is very difficult, because it gets stolen ... the cost of laying high quality fibre optic cables is enormous and prohibitive in most of Africa and yet there's huge demand," Mr Williams said.

"Yes there are large populations of people who are very poor but there are also large populations of very economically active companies, and the people who work for them, who are not getting good service," he said

Avanti, which was founded in 2002, was launched with a view to serving Africa, but after struggling to raise funding for its plans for the continent, it launched the Hylas 1 satellite in November 2010, which covers Europe. The second satellite will cover southern and eastern Africa, while a third, Hylas 3, will serve Nigeria, Ghana and other west African nation states.

Avanti sells its capacity to telecommunications companies that can then use it to offer consumer broadband, bespoke networks for companies or governments, and so-called "IP trunking" services used to move large amounts of data.

Internet penetration in Africa is the lowest in the world and is less than half that of Asia and the Pacific. But it grew over 20-fold in the decade to 2010, from 0.5 per cent to 10.8 per cent, according to the International Telecommunication Union. Sub-Saharan Africa has also been enjoying growth rates above 5 per cent despite the global economic crisis.

Mr Williams said Avanti had already presold capacity that will be used in eight eastern and southern African nations, from South Sudan to Botswana, with its services being used by schools and banks in Kenya and mining companies in Zimbabwe.

In South Africa, Avanti is in discussions to use the broadband service to connect hundreds of government offices, while defence companies operating in Iraq and Afghanistan will also use the broadband connection.

The company has hired a sales manager in Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, ahead of the planned 2015 launch of Hylas 3 and will open offices in South Africa in August. Two more satellites to provide additional capacity to Africa and "fill in the gaps" have been designed but there is no timetable for their launch, Mr Williams said.

[johncsimpson] 26/6/2012 12:47

afternoon buywell. Accessed the link but can't find the article - do I need to register or am I just missing seeing the article?

[billytkid2] 26/6/2012 12:23

From Cenkos on the 21st:

Avanti (AVN, 301p, Mkt. Cap. £336m, BUY – Cenkos Brokership). Some positive news in the trade press
today that customer demand continues to grow for bandwidth at HYLAS 2 which is due to launch in July.
Bentley Walker - an existing Avanti VSAT customer - is enhancing its satellite offerings in Iraq and
Afghanistan and will run a new hub utilising capacity on HYLAS 2. The benefit to Bentley Walker of
HYLAS 2 is that in combination with the new hub it has purchased from iDirect, it will be able to offer
higher speed packages on more affordable equipment and using a smaller dish than was previously
achievable with Ku-band. The capacity in these regions for Bentley Walker relate to Defence and
Security and the company also has enterprise and IP trunking businesses in East and South Africa. As a
reminder, once capacity is filled across all 3 satellites, we can see the potential for earnings
approaching 200p a share and a forecast year 3 multiple already looks cheap at c.10x. Looking at the
valuation another way, backing out the implied value of total capacity of 16,000 Mhz across Avanti's 3
satellites at the current EV of £500m, would imply a price of c.$270/Mhz/Month as against a current
price in the market of $2000 Mhz a month.

Forecasts & ratios
Year end June (£m) 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Revenue 5.5 17.0 56.5 102.3 138.2
EBITDA -11.3 -6.9 11.3 50.5 85.9
PBT Adj -12.0 -7.9 3.8 43.8 81.3
EPS Adj -11.2 -7.9 0.8 30.9 60.3
P/E -27.3 -38.6 376.5 9.9 5.1
Source: Cenkos Securities

[buywell2] 26/6/2012 08:01

I would expect that it would be easy for China to take control of any satellite it wanted to ... or eavesdrop on what was taking place

After all they have hacked into the Pentagon and NASA already as well as GOOGLE

And GOOGLE will have a far more sophisticated firewall than the Pentagon

I put this down as another RISK in AVN








Expect more of this , see link below .... Country was China and the company BAE

RBS and other UK banks with outdated obsolete computer systems and software are an EASY target

I would not be suprised if they have not been targetted already .... several times to test out what can be done easily and what can't

Before they cause a MAJOR problem ..... like with NatWest for example

[edale] 26/6/2012 07:40

backmarker, try going into the article through

Yes I've walked from edale many times.

[waterloo01] 26/6/2012 07:35

"One of my challenges is that these satellites, in my opinion, are going to fill up quite fast but the capital markets are currently not great and my share price is quite low," he said. "I can't use equity to raise more money to buy more satellites so I've got to be creative."

Mr Williams has previously said Avanti would seek to move to the main market in early 2013, where it would join Inmarsat as the only other main-market listed satellite operator in the UK.

[colva] 26/6/2012 07:23

standish,

Do you have a link for the launch date info? TIA.

[backmarker] 25/6/2012 23:55

edale,

unfortunately you need to be an FT subscriber to view the article.

p.s. is your moniker any connection with the start of the Pennine Way ?

[edale] 25/6/2012 22:33

Good article in FT today on Avanti @ www.ft.com › Companies › Industrials

[martincoops] 25/6/2012 22:01

Good, Aug 2nd it is then, a little later than expected but only just outside the 30 day window.

[standish11] 25/6/2012 20:36

Aug. 2 Ariane 5 • Intelsat 20 & HYLAS 2
Launch window: 2054-2151 GMT (4:54-5:51 p.m. EDT)
Launch site: ELA-3, Kourou, French Guiana

Arianespace will use an Ariane 5 ECA rocket, designated VA208, to launch the Intelsat 20 and HYLAS 2 communications satellites. Intelsat 20 will provide C-band and Ku-band video, voice and data network services over Asia, Africa and the Middle East. HYLAS 2 carriess a Ka-band payload for high-speed, low-cost data, Internet and video services to Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Delayed from July. [June 22]

[johncsimpson] 25/6/2012 19:29

Ended up like the graph in post 138 - only worse with the downwards line cutting back through the MACDs.

[yorgi] 25/6/2012 15:33

Your apologies accepted Superg......and I would also like to apologise for what I commented which was out of order.....all water under the bridge now :-)

Yes it is funny how things turn out !

Getting back to AVN we still can't break out of this 300p area, we need confirmation from the BOD that Hylas 2 is on site and ready to go. Also some a trading update for Hylas 1 will be welcomed as well.

[johncsimpson] 25/6/2012 12:36

This is the other graph that I take more notice of during this stage of the cycle; taken about 5 mins ago:

[johncsimpson] 25/6/2012 12:20

The graph as at ten minutes ago. Now that AVN has gone blue the price line follows.

It still doesn't mean a 'big' move north is here yet but it's clearly a better looking picture. The dotted line at the 321/2 area that I've added, is where I think the price has to break first. The arrows show the places where the short term (very short term) MACD's have gone positive. Not too relevant in the whole scheme of things . . .

The three day indicators that I use have been positive since first thing on 21 June (even on Friday morning when buywell made me look again and I removed my limit orders; though no harm done here).

While I've been doing this I see we've moved back a bit . . .

[johncsimpson] 25/6/2012 09:23

Early in the day yet but . . .



The new downward line merely reflects the current first hour or so - think of it as the hand of a clock. Should the days price reverse and go blue then that line too will reverse. I'm sure you 'chart-pickers' can work out the rest.

[johncsimpson] 25/6/2012 08:09

Re chart (post 137 above)

On Friday, the price line duly obliged and retraced 'north' almost breaking through the upper resistance line which was at about 311.5. So that's the immediate target followed by 320ish (as seen on post 122 above).

OT it's the start of Wimbledon. C'mon Tim . . . spookey or what?

[2350220] 22/6/2012 21:14

Wouldn't mind this interviewer in our TV Studio.

John