Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[johncsimpson] 21/6/2012 21:00

Hello buywell,

That's a bold prediction (275 or less). I know where you're getting it from chartwise but what makes you say it's looking weak right now? My 'day indicators' said the opposite earlier. But then I have to admit they've been there three times this past 11 days and four times this past 20 days (trading days that is). Despite the sub 300p in the last half hour or so and subsequent close there, the indicators were still positive.

My buy limit orders are good until close of play tomorrow so perhaps I'll reflect and remove them in the morning - always a chance of an early RNS. Not desperate to buy but I did really well with BPC this last month and have sold out this past few days so I have funds available. But more to be gained if AVN do drop to 275ish and not too much at 292 or 287. That is, unless, they go up and not down.

You see RENE today? More to come here - charts went very positive today. I haven't followed it for long enough to be really confident yet but just watch these next few days. I see your XEN did a bit but on very few trades. Not convinced.

[buywell2] 21/6/2012 19:10

john .... you might want to think again on buy order at 292p unless you are desperate to get stock tommorrow

This sideways move is now looking a bit weak ...... chart has the potential for a rapid fall to 275p or less

[wilksey1] 21/6/2012 19:05

oops gone the wrong way

[blue forever] 21/6/2012 16:56

Just looked back and no contract announcements for the last three months?

[johncsimpson] 21/6/2012 16:08

Day indicators all positive (though not for the first time in the last fortnight). She's gonna go soon. I've never seen so many 'false starts' from the (my) chart signals that have been around for over a month now.

C'mon Tim.

[yorgi] 21/6/2012 15:50

Agreed Blue very much Hylas 1&2's revenues that will be the driver for the share price for some time yet.

[wilksey1] 21/6/2012 15:35

borrowed this from another bb site posted by skooby...

[blue forever] 21/6/2012 14:07

Not sure we should be counting on Hylas 3 as yet. That`s not due for launch until November 2015, the share price for the next three years will depend on Hylas1& 2.

[yorgi] 21/6/2012 11:08

I'm here Colva.....I had a day out yesterday and the markets and more so AVN have not had my full attention today.

In a nutshell I'm not up to speed at the moment other than I see the share price is not looking very good today :-(

[colva] 21/6/2012 11:04

Anybody seen Yorgi , he seems to have gone AWOL .

[2350220] 21/6/2012 10:32

Thanks very much for both explanations Shank and SG.
That makes a lot more sense now.
Fully agree with the bit where you mention that once all three sats are up in the sky, then there is little else to pay but some tech staff and sales staff etc.
Roll on Hylas 3 . . . err 4 . . . .

John

[sg31] 21/6/2012 10:24

2350220

we can see the potential for earnings approaching 200p

Avanti spent a lot of money having the satellites designed and manufactured. The launches also cost a lot of money. When the satellites are all in orbit all the expensive investment is done with. In effect if someone wants to buy bandwidth they pay Avanti a lot of money and Avanti doesn't have to do much other than stick it in the bank. OK there are some small costs but they don't have to manufacture anything.
That means that most of the earnings can be used to pay down debt build more satellites or pay dividends. Avanti goes from being a money pit to a cash cow.

imply a price of c.$270/Mhz/Month as against a current price in the market of $2000 Mhz

The market is valuing the business at $270 /Mhz/Month but Avanti can get $2000Mhz /Month. So the market is under valuing the company by a stupid amount.
Once the money starts to come in the market will have to value the company as a growth story with high barriers to entry. Work out whay multiple they might use.

[shanksaj] 21/6/2012 09:59

Gary

It was a bit tongue-in-cheek from past (unhappy) experience. Motive for posting: tired of the huge swings/volatility in small caps over the last few months, and just want a slow riser for a nice change.

235...,

I think Mary is saying the current market price of what Avanti will be supplying is several times more than the current share price would suggest. Market price means the (future) earnings for Avanti.

Some shorters have been suggesting Avanti won't be able to compete with other technology... the directors of Avanti have consistently indicated they don't agree... by buying pretty heavily over last few months.

[2350220] 21/6/2012 09:50

Hi VMH or any other knowledgeable investor,
Do you understand the last bit of that statement?
It sort of looks like they will earn a fraction of what they are earning now.
Am I reading this wrong?

Sorry for being so naive.

John

[verymaryhinge] 21/6/2012 09:42

from Cenkos
Avanti – Bandwidth demand grows on HYLAS 2. Avanti (AVN, 301p, Mkt. Cap. £336m, BUY – Cenkos Brokership). Some positive news in the trade press today that customer demand continues to grow for bandwidth at HYLAS 2 which is due to launch in July. Bentley Walker - an existing Avanti VSAT customer - is enhancing its satellite offerings in Iraq and Afghanistan and will run a new hub utilising capacity on HYLAS 2. The benefit to Bentley Walker of HYLAS 2 is that in combination with the new hub it has purchased from iDirect, it will be able to offer higher speed packages on more affordable equipment and using a smaller dish than was previously achievable with Ku-band. The capacity in these regions for Bentley Walker relate to Defence and Security and the company also has enterprise and IP trunking businesses in East and South Africa. As a reminder, once capacity is filled across all 3 satellites, we can see the potential for earnings approaching 200p a share and a forecast 2014 multiple already looks cheap at c.10x. Looking at the valuation another way, backing out the implied value of total capacity of 16,000 Mhz across Avanti's 3 satellites at the current EV of £500m, would imply a price of c.$270/Mhz/Month as against a current price in the market of $2000 Mhz a month.

[johncsimpson] 21/6/2012 08:02

Good post GaryMott - absolutely nailed it.

[garymott] 21/6/2012 07:47

SHANKSAJ, your second statement is of course true; there is even a small chance of complete failure at launch although the Ariane is the best launcher of all and Hylas 2 is insured against launch failure.

Your first statement is simply your personal view; you do not and cannot know the share price following launch. The share price may drop, move very little, or it might rise sharply, especially if significant new contracts are announced.

[shanksaj] 20/6/2012 16:27

Once the thing is successfully launched the share price will, of course, fall back about 20 to 40p, maybe 50p, while tests are done for a few months to check all is OK.

Newcomers need to know that a supposed successful launch is not the end of the process of getting a satellite into operation..... its just the biggest milestone in the journey.

[johncsimpson] 20/6/2012 15:09

Good luck - I have some limit orders in at 287 and 292 but I don't expect them to be filled - we can but hope.

[johncsimpson] 20/6/2012 11:43

Rogk - 20,000+ do you?

BOR could move north soon according to my charts . . . Good time to buy them.

Added: Rogk - guess you meant sell for the resultant drop not the actual shares themselves . . .

[buffaloman] 20/6/2012 11:26

I would buy now @ 304.5 - £3 seems to be support & when it moves, will move up very quickly. News could move these at any moment!

[johncsimpson] 19/6/2012 15:54

Just goes to show - always believe your charts. They said sell BPC and are now neutral / negative. Whereas AVN are still two negative indicators (though one of these is now flicking between neg and neutral) and one neutral (which, at least, is an improvement on lunchtime). So do I buy back my BPC?