Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[buywell2] 08/6/2012 10:17

Relax

You are getting a bit too excited in using your new found skills in charting/TA

Let the chart do it's thing FIRST

AVN chart is still in 'make it's mind up' mode

[johncsimpson] 08/6/2012 10:13

Strange patterns this morning. At the moment, looks like the price could be heading for the 300 / 305 bid / offer area.

[backmarker] 08/6/2012 08:09

I think the MACD has moved into a beneficial phase, so to speak.

but I really need some goat's entrails to be certain ! ;~}

[johncsimpson] 07/6/2012 22:56

Gorvachof 7 Jun'12 - 14:56 - 91 of 91

. . . . John why not make your own AVN chart thread, obviously some people seem interested.

Well, no I don't want to do that.

Odd really, jonnib suggests that I put them on yorgi's thread; yorgi doesn't want them on 'his' thread but superg doesn't mind if I post them here on his / her thread so that's what I'll do - post them here.

I'm now just trying to show that charts / graphs can help in timing when to buy (and for me as a trader, when to sell). AVN should soon move forward on the fact that hylas 2 is about to be launched. And before someone tells me, this is nothing to do with charts - I know. But if I were using charts and waiting for a moment to buy in this round of the cycle of 'ups and downs', then it would be about now as the MACD comes out of negativity - (not that that's the only indicator I use). However, the real question is - how long will people then hold? As I've pointed out before, watching as the price drops from £7.00 to £2.50 as it did post hylas 1 is not something many, if any, will want to do.

[megabear] 07/6/2012 18:53

Yorgi - ain't no thang but a chicken wing ;-). Just trying to get an idea on if that 2013 rev number is achievable. As an aside. I'm no chartist but to me it does look like a coiled spring ready to punch northwards.

[yorgi] 07/6/2012 16:52

Perhaps I misread you Megabear and if I did then I apologise........:-)

Quite relaxed I can assure you :-)

[nugacity] 07/6/2012 16:51

Ps. Yorgi seems quite highly strung.
===================
Makes the high notes easier to reach!
LA-TI-DO ... a Playboy centrefold?

[nugacity] 07/6/2012 16:46

I wonder if some of the orders for Hylas must be kept quiet for govt security. Which govt is another thing?

[megabear] 07/6/2012 16:30

Thanks Gary. Very helpful. Will do a bit more research on it myself. Annoyed I sold out so early, but starting to think this could be a good level to get back in. Wider market keeps putting me off though.

Ps. Yorgi seems quite highly strung.

[garymott] 07/6/2012 15:36

Megabear, don't forget also that some of the contracts for Hylas 2 are already won (plus there's at least one very large potental order of £170M for Hylas 2 which would change things very materially). Obviously the revenue doesn't start flowing until Hylas 2 is operational.

[megabear] 07/6/2012 15:11

Thanks Gary. So if I get this right, they've got £17m recurring for next year for Hylas 1. They expect to do another £17m for Hylas 1, and to also achieve £17m for Hylas 2 to get them close to that £55m. Thanks. That all adds up. So if the £17m is recurring then they only need to do an additional £38m in sales or average £104k of sales/day for the year? I had bought some in mid 200's and sold but am thinking about buying back in. But I was going through the contract awards for this year and they seem a bit few and far between. Year to date they still average only £34k/day against the (now corrected) £104k/day, which would be required to meet consensus. Is this right? Is it just a case of waiting for Hylas 2 to go up?

[yorgi] 07/6/2012 15:06

Timing is everything Nugacity :-)

[yorgi] 07/6/2012 15:03

Good to see you're still with us Gary :-)

I have to be honest I couldn't be bothered with digging out all the info you had for Megabear firstly as you pointed out he could do a little research of his own and also a quick look at his other postings on BB's told me he has no serious interest in AVN.

[gorvachof] 07/6/2012 14:56

With the only update from Arianespace stating progress with VA-207 & 208, logic tells me that it is not expected to be anything but a small delay, however obviously some companies will be in more of a rush than others.

There is a chance that Intelsat-20, based on the same model as the troubled intelsat-19 may cause a longer delay, right now its either not expected or they just don't know.

In mid-may Intelsat stated Q3 launch for IS-20, so I had thoughts that maybe GSAT-10 may have had a place on VA-208, the IRSO had hinted at July, however it would seem that has yet again been delayed, so who knows?

John why not make your own AVN chart thread, obviously some people seem interested.

[garymott] 07/6/2012 14:47

Megabear, it would be worth you doing a little more research. Try starting with these 2 RNSs:-

14 May 2012 8:00am
Interim Management Statement

"Avanti's revenue is in line with house broker estimates for the financial year to 30 June 2012.

The Group has added £42.3m of Backlog. Backlog increased to £213m from the £181m reported at 31 December 2011. The Pipeline of potential sales stands at £529m (excluding £170m options on HYLAS 2)."

06 Feb 2012 7:00am
Interim Report for the 6 months ended 31 Dec. 2011

"Sales momentum has accelerated lately with £23m of new contract wins announced in the last two months. A full HYLAS 1 could generate approximately £50m in annual revenue. We expect to reach full saturation at the end of the third year in service. In the first full year of operation, the year to June 2012, we expect to achieve at least one third of that level of revenue, no less than £17m. We believe this is a reasonably encouraging start in achieving a straight line in the direction of our target."

"As we approach the launch of HYLAS 2, demand in Emerging markets is strong and we are seeing increasing orders and enquiries for Ka band capacity from large and small customers. The typical order size for HYLAS 2 is far larger than on HYLAS 1. Our confidence in the strength of demand is illustrated by our reduction in the target period in which we will sell-out the capacity on HYLAS 2 from five years after service launch to four years. We maintain our expectation for full sell-out within three years for HYLAS 1."

So revenue to June 2012 from Hylas 1 should be at least £17M. As these are all multi-year contracts that should be the same to June 2013 from Hylas 1 without any further contract wins.

They are expecting to achieve saturation of Hylas 1 after 3 years of operation with about £50M per year at saturation. So, assuming a linear rate of progress, that would be about another £17M from Hylas 1 by the end of June 2013 (i.e. about £34M in total).

Hylas 2 will hopefully be launched on July 27 and the company has stated that it will be operational quicker than Hylas 1 (which took quite a few months and was disappointingly slow). So it may be operational for about 9 months at June 2013.

Preorders for Hylas 2 are "strong" and typically "far larger" than for Hylas 1.
So, although about 9 months, this could still be in the range of £17M to June 2013.

This would sum to about £50M for both Hylas 1 and 2 by June 2013.

[nugacity] 07/6/2012 13:09

As you say yorgi, Hylas 2 will be serving a wilderness so the demand will not have the same competition they had in mainland Europe in certain areas.

As to price - I did my first ever T20 based on a launch date in June and now wonder if that was wise? Will the delay hold the price at the current mark or lower? Have closed it at a small profit in shares - all 60 of them - but at least I need not worry about finding the cash now.

By my reckoning they cost me £120 in duty, charges and levy - so not too bad - if much less than my intentions - which are on again once we know the score for a launch date. Netley shows that to be 27th July from one source.

Weird how Ariane site shows only historical launches - I guess they expect delays for all sorts of reasons? And who'd know better than they?

[yorgi] 07/6/2012 12:42

Lets put it another way Megabear.......do I (I think other long term holders as well) believe AVN can achieve revenues from Hylas 1 and Hylas 2 and later Hylas 3 to achieve a share price well above where we are now YES.

Until I see some revenu numbers from the BOD then I'm not going to do do any calculations or projections but what I do know is Hylas 2 is much bigger than Hylas 1 it covers a much larger area and the demand for satellite services for people in remote areas to give them a decent connection to the net is far bigger than supply that has been published from more than one source.

What is clear is there are still some who doubt or question all of this as that is why the share price is where it is and not much higher.

[megabear] 07/6/2012 12:14

When do you think the revenues will come? The market is expecting £55m in sales to June next year, which means they need to be announcing on average of approx £151k of contracts each day. On my maths from the contract announcements, they've managed to announce an average of just £34k in contracts per day since the start of 2012. So a lot of work to be done to get to that £55m. In fact they need to start selling 4x as much as the current run rate. Anyone have any thoughts on if this gear change is possible?

[yorgi] 07/6/2012 12:04

Some time very soon I would expect confirmation that Hylas 2 has arrived at the launch site, it is fuelled ready for loading, confirmation of launch date and that would be a good time for an update of progress of sales of Hylas 1 and revenues.

I'm quite sure the BOD want to see the share price rising as much as we do.......if that isn't stating the obvious :-)

[yorgi] 07/6/2012 11:48

Yes we need to see those revenues Jeffian :-)

[jeffian] 07/6/2012 11:43

yorgi,
I think that's right. The brokers' 'target prices' are DCF calculations based on projected revenues. Once AVN can show that actual revenues are coming in in line with the projections, we should have something solid to sustain the share price Whatever spike (if any) is generated by the launch, it'll need good cashflow figures to sustain it.

[jonnib] 07/6/2012 11:39

john. no need to apologise.....would be easier if you posted on the other thread. I don't know much about charts so would be interested to see what youthink and others take.

cheers

john

[yorgi] 07/6/2012 11:26

Yes it can N3 :-)

What I believe is required more is some revenue numbers from the board as to what Hylas 1 is generating that is what is going to make the difference to the share price If we were to get a trading update from the board before the launch then "launch fever" will come into play big time then I'm sure.

[colva] 07/6/2012 11:13

johncsimpson ,

No problem John.

Looking at the chart there seems to be a good chance that we'll see a golden cross of the 50dma and the 200dma , possibly next week .