Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[yorgi] 18/5/2012 10:21

We are holding up quite well considering the carnage all around.

[johncsimpson] 18/5/2012 09:55

Graphs from this morning:

It's on a bit of a knife edge – The trace of red on the histogram is just apparent as it was early yesterday but it wouldn't take much of a rise to lose this (as eventually happened yesterday).




The 'pennant screenshots' show how close AVN is to moving out of the pennant - one way or another . . .



Just for interest, of course . . .

[colva] 18/5/2012 08:01

Rathlindri,
You may get a chance today , the 300p area could come under pressure and an intraday drop to the 200dma at 287p is not out of the question, maybe a good day to buy . just my own thoughts so DYOR.

[johncsimpson] 18/5/2012 07:57

From RHPS update last night:

AVANTI COMMUNICATIONS (AVN): Avanti has said that its 'revenue is in line with house broker estimates for the financial year to 30 June 2012.' By this we can assume that Avanti is on course to achieve the £17m of revenues that it promised at the time of its interim results in February. The backlog of orders and pipeline of potential sales is building and HYLAS 2 remains on course for launch in July. Chief Executive David Williams describes demand for HYLAS 2 as 'very high' and says that Avanti is on track to fill the capacity of HYLAS 1 by April 2014 and HYLAS 2 by September 2016. Broker Equity Development has confirmed its price target of 903p. BUY UP TO 750p (Today's close 314.25p)

[rathlindri] 18/5/2012 00:17

wish I'd bought more...

[count chris] 17/5/2012 22:11

This is holding up incredibly well compared to my other aim stocks - if the shorters couldn't cash in this week it really is time for them to give up here

[johncsimpson] 17/5/2012 17:41

Just making a point

[martin3042] 17/5/2012 15:58

its nice to see new people on here full of optimism. Better than a few months back when every new person was a shorter who came on to trash the stock.

[nugacity] 17/5/2012 15:48

Starting to believe the steady climb back to a sensible price might be under way. Missed a chance to buy at £3.11 and the rise must come one day?

A rise today looks pretty good my ISA stuff is making like a stone!

[nugacity] 17/5/2012 12:50

Beams, kilowatts and bandwidths - comparison is tricky?
Hylas2 is being complemented by 'smaller' Hylas3 , and was 3 times 'bigger' than Hylas 1. It looks like Hylas 2 is going to be very important however you look at it. Africa is too big for our rivals?

-------

Hylas-1 can provide 3 kilowatts of power to its two Ku-band channels and eight Ka-band channels. It will be operated at 33.5 degrees east. ISRO, which is handling the satellite's early orbit operations, said Hylas-1's orbit has been nearly circularized to geostationary position about 36,000 kilometers over the equator following three sequences during which its liquid-fueled apogee motor was fired.

The satellite is in continuous radio contact with ISRO's Hassan master satellite control facility in southwest India, and has deployed one of its communications antennas, ISRO said.

Avanti has contracted with Orbital Sciences Corp. of Dulles, Va., to build a larger Hylas-2 satellite to be ready for launch in 2012. Hylas-2, using the Orbital Star 2.7 platform, will provide 5 kilowatts of power to a payload of 24 Ka-band user beams and four gateway beams.

HYLAS 3 will have up to 4GHz of Ka-band
capacity configured across 8 beams within 1
steerable antenna with a visible earth view
covering Africa and the Middle East.

[yorgi] 17/5/2012 12:39

I'm afraid not at the moment juju, however AVN do plan to move to the main market but that is of no help now of course.

[juju44] 17/5/2012 12:36

i assume this is not ISAble. Can anyone confirm

[sg31] 17/5/2012 12:22

H3 is smaller than H2

[johncsimpson] 17/5/2012 12:20

Hello Colva, - you're absolutely right and you have a case that on the above graph (post 32) it's not visually a pennant in the normal way the term pennant is used; it's more of a wedge/triangular formation but not strictly that either. So my apologies for that misuse of the term; it doesn't do my charting case any good if I appear to be misusing terms. I'd put the lines on as they indicated lower highs and higher lows and IMO, one way or another, there should be a strong move as the prices squeeze in at the end point. So it's valid from that standpoint alone.

I use several different types of graph and indicators which help me at different stages of a shares cycles; I've included below one of these for AVN from the last half hour where the pennant is more obvious - also (as a plus) the share price has bounced off a short term moving average. But it's still within the 'pennant shape' so it could reverse back downwards. Should it break through the top line (circa317p) then I'll be looking for a return of the uptrend of the bank holiday weekend.



On my live chart (that's the one in post 32) first thing this morning, the histogram crept into the red zone which is what it was suggesting would happen at the end of yesterday. But it hasn't stayed below the zero line and is currently still green (though only just. and it too could reverse back).

[new tech] 17/5/2012 12:18

Been looking into AVN.

- Hylas 1 launched in November 2010 and on track for revenues of £50m pa by end 2013.
- Hylas 2 launch window begins next month, is fully funded and has three times the bandwidth capacity of HYLAS 1.
- Hylas 3 is fully funded and has up to 4GHz of Ka band capacity.

Orders are growing rapidly. At 31/12/2011 the Pipeline of potential sales stood at GBP529m (excluding GBP170m options on HYLAS 2).

Analysts Daniel Stewart now have a figure of 2052p on AVN.

[colva] 17/5/2012 12:02

Yes,if your looking to buy a few it may be worth waiting for another dip towards the 300p level, 9am to 10am seems to be the best time of day to buy.

[edale] 17/5/2012 11:56

Don't panic Nugacity, probably back nearer £3-00 by the end of the day.

[nugacity] 17/5/2012 11:44

Put in a limit bid of £3.14 - am I the only one who hopes for gains in pounds but begrudges the odd halfpenny when buying :O)

Perhaps I should take your approach and wait for the next hollow - perhaps we are not forever creeping up until the launch quite yet.

It is so annoying because a wiggle or consistent climb will be equally obvious after it has happened :O(

[jonnib] 17/5/2012 11:36

well we have suffered a year of drip drip drip as people have sold due to the length of time hylas 11 has taken to build and test. I now feel really comfortable that all is well and going according to plan. This time next year nearly all the revenue will be to the bottom line so im expecting a steady rise and with entry to the footsie we should get the stability for the future. All good in my opinion but its been a hard year (if you didnt sell)! hopefully the greece thing will calm soon and the real money will return. Holding up very well all considered

[jeffian] 17/5/2012 11:32

Nugacity,
I was waiting for a 'buying opportunity' in this share last year and got drawn in by the inexorable rise in the run-up to launch of Hylas1. I strongly suspect the same will happen as Hylas2 launch approaches although whether the share price can hold post-launch depends entirely on cash generation meeting targets from now on IMHO. Looking specifically at AVN, my view remains that the short-term trajectory of the share price is upwards. However, looking at the macro-economic picture, when Greece crashes out of the Euro, there is going to be market mayhem for a while (a short while if they've planned it properly; rather longer if it's chaotic and contagion spreads to other weak Euro countries) and nothing will be immune. Personally, I'm keeping a pool of cash for that eventuality; there could be some great buying opportunities about.

[nugacity] 17/5/2012 11:20

Hmmmm.... £3.17p already ..... could have had £3.03 yesterday if my cash had arrived in time. Got it today. Sugar!

[nugacity] 17/5/2012 11:14

Have plodded through so many posts this morning to help me decide whether £3.15 is going to look high or low in a few weeks time.

So many posts encouraging our BOD to support the share price!
But where do these posters think the money is coming from?

Avanti are hardly in a position to pay them fortunes (yet) and for every billionaire backer there must be thousands of directors who remortgage their homes to get their projects off the ground.

Meanwhile they need to eat and pay the new mortgage - hence the £6M if that was the figure?

[colva] 17/5/2012 10:34

Hi John ,
isn't a pennant supposed to have a pole, something like this ,