Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 14/5/2012 15:17

been firming up all afternoon in a mkt like this - up day tomorrow imo

CR

[johnv] 14/5/2012 13:26

Thanks Billy,

[restassured] 14/5/2012 12:57

Jefferies Avanti Buy price target 600p

[billytkid2] 14/5/2012 12:52

Johnv - Here are projections from Cenkos (I fear it may be a little unclear when I post). If you can follow the columns you can see by their forecasts P/E would drop to 8.4 in 2014, 4.3 in 2015 and 2.9 in 2016. The stock was £2.60 when they realised this report.

Year End June 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014 E 2015 E 2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E 2020 E
Revenue (£m) 5.5 17.0 56.5 102.3 138.2 175.0 214.7 234.8 255.1 274.7
EBITDA (£m) -9.0 2.1 35.9 78.2 113.6 148.0 184.9 204.0 223.7 242.7
CKS PBT (£m) -12.0 -7.9 3.8 43.8 81.3 116.5 155.7 181.1 208.5 236.6
CKS EPS (p) -11.2 -7.9 0.8 30.9 60.3 88.3 119.5 139.5 161.1 183.3
PER (x) n/a n/a 325.0 8.4 4.3 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4

[johnv] 14/5/2012 12:28

What are the latest earnings forecasts. Digital look have -7.9eps on t/o of £17m to june 12 and 2.0eps on £55m year later.
I cant see how daniel stewart can justify a tp of 2052p that would give a pe of 2052/2=1026. Even a ten fold increase next year to 20p would give a p/e of 103.

[dylanl2] 14/5/2012 12:04

Article on the BBC website around satellite internet and air travel, always thought this would be a potential market. Unfortunatelyt all with Intersat at the moment by the looks of it, nice to see that there's a market there though...

[restassured] 14/5/2012 10:24

DS reiterates £20.52 target price





14 May 2012 - Avanti Communications (328p) BUY (TP - 2052p)

Company: Daniel Stewart


Interim Statement: in line with house broker estimates
 In an Interim Management Statement, covering trading for the 4 months to 30th April 2012, Avanti reports: "revenue is in line with house broker estimates for the financial year to 30 June 2012". Consensus FY'12 (E) revenue is £17.05m (FY'13 (E): £55.1m).
 Avanti reports having added £42.3m of backlog, which has increased to £213m from £181m at 31st December 2011. The pipeline of potential sales now stands at £529m; this excludes £170m options on HYLAS 2.
 Avanti notes that HYLAS 2 has successfully completed thermal vacuum testing, and "remains on target for a launch in the 30-day window from 30th June".
 Avanti CEO David Williams commented: "Our products are selling well in the higher value-added application markets in Europe, and demand for the imminent HYLAS 2 satellite is very high. With HYLAS 3 included, 80% of our capacity will serve emerging markets which offer high growth potential. Momentum in Backlog growth is building as we approach HYLAS 2's launch and in the last six months we have secured new monthly orders in line with our targets to fill HYLAS 1 by April 2014 and HYLAS 2 by September 2016."
 Having secured funding for all three satellites, and remaining on track for the launch of HYLAS 2, and with capacity take-up ongoing, Avanti is continuing to develop its long-term goal of operating a fleet of Ka band satellites. Underlying demand for broadband capacity also continues to move in one direction, and accelerate, boosted by factors such as mobile smartphone take-up (now at 12% of the 5.9bn worldwide inventory).

Our rating on Avanti remains "Buy", with a target valuation based on the capacity of all three satellites in the fleet.

[yorgi] 14/5/2012 09:23

Agreed Colva it will be a good move I'm quite sure, as you say the sooner the better.

[colva] 14/5/2012 09:12

Interesting that Jefferies should mention that AVN's reporting/updates are coming into line with it's peers on the official list, they have said 2013 but the sooner the better.

[cockneyrebel] 14/5/2012 08:41

If the market had been in a more bullish mood these would have broken out this morning imo. Let's see what happens when the mkt rallies and the bulls get horny again.

CR

[johncsimpson] 14/5/2012 08:36

It's a positive RNS but absolutely nothing new - it's just what we all knew of this continuing story. Breakout on my charts is circa 328 which AVN managed around the bank holiday weekend but is struggling to hold. IMO, based on my charts, we still need to stay above 330ish for several sessions and talk of £4 today is overly optimistic - we'll do well to stay blue . . .

[yorgi] 14/5/2012 08:16

Precisely what is required Backmarker :-)

[backmarker] 14/5/2012 08:14

AVN's RNSs tend to be short and sharp.

this one confirms they are still doing exactly what they said on the tin.

[restassured] 14/5/2012 08:09

05/14/2012 08:32:39 - Avanti Communications Backlog Up GBP42M Over Four Months

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Avanti Communications Group PLC (AVN.LN), the satellite operator, said Monday that its backlog increased to GBP213 million at April 30 from the GBP181 million reported at Dec. 31, adding that its pipeline of potential sales stands at GBP529 million, excluding GBP170 million options on HYLAS 2.

MAIN FACTS:

-HYLAS 2 successfully completed one of its last key technical milestones, thermal vacuum testing, during the period and remains on target for a launch in the 30-day window from 30 June 2012.

-The satellite will extend Avanti's coverage to Africa, Caucasia and the Middle East.

-Products are selling well in the higher value-added application markets in Europe, and demand for the imminent HYLAS 2 satellite is very high; with HYLAS 3 included, 80% of capacity to serve emerging markets.

-Momentum in Backlog growth is building; in the last six months company has secured new monthly orders in line with targets to fill HYLAS 1 by April 2014 and HYLAS 2 by September 2016.

[rogerbridge] 14/5/2012 07:56

Looks a good statement.

[billytkid2] 14/5/2012 07:54

From jeffries:

Key Takeaway
Avanti has released an IMS for the four months to 30 April. It confirms our
£17m revenue target for FY12 (to June 2012). While much recent attention has
focused on the progress of HYLAS-2's launch (confirmed to be on track), we
believe the statement provides valuable reassurance on the monetisation of
HYLAS-1, which is clearly also a crucial aspect of the investment case.
Confirming FY12 revenue outlook. When Avanti issued 1H results for the six months
to 31 Dec 2011, it issued FY12 revenue guidance of £17m, implying £12m for 2H FY12. Our
FY12 revenue is in line with guidance. In today's statement, management confirms that it is
on track to achieve our revenue estimate. While much recent focus has centred on progress
towards the HYLAS-2 launch, demonstrating solid execution on HYLAS-1 is also critical, in
our view. Avanti's statement should provide strong reassurance on this issue, in our view.
Financial disclosure for the period to 30 April 2012. Avanti states that new contracts
signed since 31 Dec 2011 are worth £42.3m in total. We understand that this figure relates
to the minimum contracted value for any deals where there is a potential range. The
implied monthly run-rate (£10.6m) is closely in-line with the target £11m per month that
management has previously committed to. Avanti discloses that backlog increased from
£181m to £213m in the four-month period. By comparing the £32m increase in backlog to
the volume of contract wins (additions to backlog) our estimate is that recurring 2H revenues
may be around £10m (subject to any FX adjustments), which would also be in line with
our forecasts. Pipeline (potential capacity sales where Avanti is still in the tendering process)
was £529m at 30 April (vs. £530m 31 Dec) with conversions into backlog closely matched
by new business added.
HYLAS-2 clears key technical milestone. Avanti has also announced that HYLAS-2 has
successfully completed one of its last key technical milestones during the period (thermal
vacuum testing). HYLAS-2 remains on target for a launch in the 30-day window opening
on 30 June 2012.
Bringing updates to the market into line with peers. Avanti has reiterated plans to
move to a full listing on the London Stock Exchange in 2013. Today's IMS is published in
anticipation of this move and brings Avanti's updates to the market closer to Official List
peers. Going forward, we expect Avanti will issue a periodic IMS mid-way between full year
and interim results. With preliminary FY12 results set for late September / early October we
would expect the next IMS to be in November covering the period of trading from June yearend
to October.

[restassured] 14/5/2012 07:47

Should get broker comment on the update.

[divinausa1] 14/5/2012 07:38

i think we will break £4 today ...

[cockneyrebel] 14/5/2012 07:37

chart is 10p from a breakout here - through 330p and 430p is the next resistance on the chart imo.

imo/dyor etc.

CR

[divinausa1] 14/5/2012 07:35

SP should! rocket today.....

[restassured] 14/5/2012 07:28

Candlesticks charts have given buy signal. Good timing.