Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[restassured] 11/5/2012 08:29

This is a £10 share trading at 320p.

How much longer can that last?

When the shorts get nervous we could see quite a squeeze.

Candlesticks turning bullish.

[yorgi] 10/5/2012 10:26

True but we are now heading in the right direction, a long way to go but last week has shown how much it can move.

Most of us long term holders/followers have not doubted that it was well oversold but when a share price is falling being attacked by doubters and shorters it can take a long time to turn that momentum around.

[restassured] 10/5/2012 10:21

Still a long long way from 700p.

[someuwin] 10/5/2012 10:17

...Yes - I think we can all see where this one is going!

[yorgi] 10/5/2012 10:15

Personally I wouldn't worry Restassured we are moving up now like I thought we would and unless market panics further over Euroland then we will soon be knocking on the door of high 300's and onto 400's......in my opinion

[restassured] 10/5/2012 10:12

I have a nice chart with an arrow pointing to 373p.

Not sure how to overlay it onto this page.Any ideas?

[yorgi] 10/5/2012 08:40

Unless the market continues to fall over Euroland worries I see us reverting to a climbing share price today. A few buys but nothing much as yet obviously wider market concerns still overshadow.

[johncsimpson] 10/5/2012 07:24

Count Chris - good post. That seems to be the right attitude IMO. But the fundamentals for AVN have been there for some years. They were reinforced by Hylas 1 and soon (barring mishaps) by Hylas 2 and then in the future we have H3. But none of this would have helped you if you'd bought in during late 2010 and held. You'd still be circa 50% down on paper so you have to use something other than (or as well as) fundamentals.

Yorgi - Re your post above (8742) I'm not overly offended - just generally and genuinely puzzled by some of the comments here; some more so than others. I wasn't looking for an apology but fine - if we (that's all of us and don't forget there are a lot of people out there who do not fall into the category of PIs and have their own agendas) approach share buying differently so be it. My charts are not always right and even when they are, there are occasions when I'm not as disciplined as I should be. There is no golden rule, no holy grail but I find them a useful tool; no more, no less. So best we move on.

Today could be another general down day since allied to everything else this past week or so, it's reported that some existing financial problems are being 'addressed' in Spain. But then maybe the markets will like Bankia being partly nationalised and see it as a 'solution' rather than a 'problem'.

[count chris] 09/5/2012 22:13

John - I hope you do post charts again - I'll take on ANY info that helps me make money (waterboard the CEO if need be) and chart data helps. In my (amateur) opinion the news from Europe triggered the fall which the charts couldn't predict but they give you a good idea how deep the fall is likely to be and where good buying opportunities lie. I'm keen on fundamentals for selection but like charts for timing - my point is they don't have to be mutually exclusive - if you understand both and both say 'buy' then surely you increase your odds of a succsefull trade.

[yorgi] 09/5/2012 18:15

I apologise if I offended you John, it was not aimed at you personally but once again if you have taken it personally then I apologise.

Although I hold more store by fundamentals and news flow there are others I know who do and who appreciate your graphs.

[johncsimpson] 09/5/2012 18:04

yorgi in particular and a few others in general

I guess (on reflection) what annoys me most in life is intransigence. Especially when, as in this case, it's defended by "Well a blind man and his dog could have seen that coming".

I can actually accept the blind man and his dog rationale as relating to the Euro-elections effecting a lot of share prices (no criticism of you here TINY2004), I even made the observation myself before the markets opened yesterday morning. But that's NOT really the point.

Buywell2 made some predictions on Bank Holiday Monday evening (post 8693). It's worth reading and looking at plus the two or three posts, including mine, that immediately follow.

He then reposted (8713) this morning – read from here and the posts up to mine 8720.

I don't know buywell other than from this thread and I didn't agree with him entirely but some of the comments against him were very vitriolic. That is something else I don't understand – just filter if you don't like someone's stand point. The truth here is he got it just about right, though it is yet to be seen if AVN retreats to the 275 area as he also suggested. (But don't think it can't).

It's not for me to defend buywell as such but I have a number of questions for all the blind men and their dogs out there:

If it was so obvious the price would retreat then presumably you sold with a view to getting back in at a lower price? Or is that only relevant for traders?

If it was so obvious (but you weren't selling because the long term scenario on fundamentals is still excellent), then why the need to belittle other peoples point of view? There's a contradiction here because on the one hand you're saying (albeit with hindsight) you could see AVN was likely to go down but on the other hand someone whose charts said the same thing and warned in ADVANCE of the event gets pilloried. What's he actually done wrong?

I made another comment (8718) re buywells charts after he reposted them this morning (that's post 8713- again) because I could see he was likely to be at least partly right because my own short term trading chart(s) had altered dramatically throughout the course of yesterday afternoon. I subsequently put that chart up (8742) after yorgi had spotted a recovery that I couldn't see and my charts were telling me a very different story.

The rest is history but don't think the AVN price drop is over but let's hope the 300 area acts as support – that's a 'psychological barrier' observation not a chart observation.

Re charts: Thank you for your interest backmarker but if I post AVN charts again it will be on one of the other AVN threads. I really don't have time for this bickering nor do I want to feel that I need to defend myself.

(I have also updated the charts I was doing for MYT for any interested parties)

[johncsimpson] 09/5/2012 14:53

Oh dear yorgi - none so blind comes to mind . . . I'll reflect on what I want to say and perhaps post later but probably elsewhere

[yorgi] 09/5/2012 14:36

I agree TTNY.

The falls we are seeing are pretty much across the board due to recent election results in France and Greece raising uncertainty and nervousness to the market and no bearing on recent gains. AVN like some other stocks earlier today resisted the drop but like many other stocks has now fallen.

As far as I'm concerned it is unfortunate but not unexpected when seeing the election results at the weekend I had hoped the market may have shrugged off the election concerns but that was not going to happen.

It did not take a market wizard to see it or any charts or graphs which in a time like this are a complete waste of time and effort in my view.

[ttny2004] 09/5/2012 13:16

Guys I think a lot is related to all the general Euro uncertainty now with France and specifically Greece. All shares across the board being hit. Market hates uncertainty and look at recent events.

[backmarker] 09/5/2012 11:59

johncsimpson,

looking at your graph suggested that even after the dropback yesterday the various indicators on your chart seemed to say "too extreme"

whether the rollercoaster of the last couple of days will be repeated or is just an odd combination of events where a bit of buying and few sellers caught MMs on the hop I don't know. I'm just surprised that anyone was prepared to bid it all the way up to the 370s so quickly.

I was equally surprised it didn't stick at around 330p, but maybe I shouldn't have been. perhaps quite a few investors saw the rise yesterday evening on top of the rises last week and thought they should cash in quick, and have been selling out this morning to take the bird-in-the-hand.

what I would like to see now is for the share price to steady around 300, maybe even rise to 310, before setting off on its next leg up.

I'd love to see someone try and put an Elliott wave analysis on the recent moves.

and keep posting the charts. they are very interesting.

[johncsimpson] 09/5/2012 11:50

Re my charts and comments on the MACD (which is only one indicator) - I don't think the 275 area is that likely but it is possible. What I do think is that it will take days for the MACD to 'settle down'. Every chance (and if you take charts seriously it's a gimme) that it will go below the zero line into negative (red area) mode. I will now move to a different set of indicators in keeping with the new circumstances.

As an aside, I have noticed many times before that when there are events like this morning, some will see it as a buying opportunity only to find that the more nervous then sell into the 'mini revival spike' and the price then falls below their 'opportunistic price' before moving up again - as I'm sure it will.

All IMHO but anyone who sold out or part sold out yesterday might look at some re-purchasing bearing in mind the above paragraph. But this is only my slant and not meant to be advice.

Added: It's to buywell2's credit that he hasn't come back to say 'told you so' - least not yet. So far he's been half right with his opinions.

[johncsimpson] 09/5/2012 11:06

Backmarker 8727

Was putting this answer together when it all went pear shaped. I would have embroidered but no point now. So I was about here:

I don't know where it will go now other than back towards the zero line on the MACD graph. Time period? Who knows?

[2350220] 09/5/2012 10:59

Oh well, nice while it lasted.
It was nice to feel a bit richer for a day or two.

John

[johncsimpson] 09/5/2012 10:58

Looks like buywell2 was right

[johncsimpson] 09/5/2012 10:55

Wack wack oops . . .