Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[fathert] 08/1/2009 11:07

undertaker should i jog on or rap myself in bubble wrap fist

undertaker you sound like a share basher trying to get the share price down , if you are real then with your worries this is never going to be the stock for you there are thousands of safe companies that are very cheap right now and they wont blow up in space , as for

likely given a tip and "Filled ya boots"


no i am waiting for two months before launch , i cant see the point of investing now and also want to see the choice of rocket ,if thats ok with you

so why dont you be a good boy and jog along

[undertaker] 08/1/2009 11:05

Agreed jon - watching and looking for a suitable entry point, during this period of "drift"

[sivadnoj] 08/1/2009 11:00

but I think the price will be at this level (despite contract wins) until they can give a firm launch date.

In the current market I think I would agree although there have been some optimistic noises about further contract wins to come in the EU funded rural broadband following a "milk round" of embassies. This is an illiquid share and it doesn't take a great deal to move the price considerably.

[fathert] 08/1/2009 10:32

undertaker your problem is really very simple AVN is a stock for men and adventures who take life by the balls whilst you would be better off investing in a safer company that makes jelly or fluffy feather pillows

[undertaker] 08/1/2009 10:23

Yes i saw that note when looking through the past posts. also the cnbc interview on the 29th.

but what happens in the scenario where the Satelite Malfunctions whilst up in orbit? If they are providing a business continuity solution for corporates, do they have a "Fail over" satelite themselves?

I do like what I've seen so far but just trying to understand the risks.

Agreed that probably now is the ideal time to invest as the price should start rise as we get closer to launch.

but I think the price will be at this level (despite contract wins) until they can give a firm launch date.

[sivadnoj] 08/1/2009 09:58

Not sure someone with your handle taking an interest in a share is necessarily a good sign :). The points you mention are all relevant risks and no doubt reasons why the share price has been held back. The satellite is insured for £89m which exceeds the current market cap and would be enough to pay off the debt and leave around £1.50 for shareholders although realistically this would be spent on constructing another satellite.

How this share performs in 09 will depend critically on the timing of the launch and whether it is successful. Launch failures apparently run at 4-5%. If launch is confirmed for the second half of 09 (and David Williams recently said on CNBC that he was still anticipating this) then there may be a run up prior to launch. Alternatively investors may take the view that they will wait to see whether the launch is successful and run the risk of getting left behind in the rush.

This equity development note from November 08 is a good starting point. Nice contract win today by the way.

[undertaker] 08/1/2009 09:30

morning chaps,

A little birdie told me about this company, and from what i've seen so far I like.

to me the only real risk is the actual satellite Launch - be it delays into 2010 or worse still the rocket blows up on launch. Also, what happens if the equipment starts to malfunction whilst in Orbit?

I'm sure they have insurance in place to cover the rocket blowing up, but any of these scenarios will punish the share price.

what does worry me though is if the Satelite conks out whilst in orbit (could get hit by some space debris!) - any thoughts?

[sivadnoj] 29/12/2008 17:35

Nothing new. Launch still anticipated second half of next year. A number of rocket options....

[sivadnoj] 29/12/2008 17:27

Terry - here's the link.

[terryebby] 29/12/2008 16:53

apparently Avanti ceo was on CNBC today - anyone see it ?

[sivadnoj] 22/12/2008 09:31

Interesting article which suggests that Hylas should be completed by March/April 2009.

First Indian-built satellite for foreign firm successfully launched
588 words
21 December 2008
The Press Trust of India Limited
English
(c) 2008 Asia Pulse Pty Limited.

Bangalore, Dec 21 (PTI) -- India's space commerce got a big boost today when the first satellite built by ISRO for a foreign customer was succesfully put into its intended orbit after it was launched by the European Ariane-5 rocket fetching a profit of 40 million dollars.

The state-of-the-art communications satellite--W2M--built by the ISRO on a commercial basis in partnership with EADS-Astrium of Europe was launched at 4.05 AM IST from the Guiana Space Centre at Kourou in French Guiana, the ISRO said here today.

Thirty-two minutes after its lift-off, W2M separated from Ariane-5, after reaching its intended Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). Building W2M signalled ISRO'S foray into the satellite-manufacturing market.

Weighing 3,463 kg at lift-off, it is the heaviest satellite built by the ISRO and is capable of operating for over 15 years. The spacecraft was built for Eutelsat Communications, which is a global satellite communications provider based in Paris.

Radio signals transmitted by W2M were successfully received by the ISRO's Master Control Facility (MCF) at Hassan in Karnataka and the satellite's health is normal.

While W2M was built under a USD 80 million (Rs 400 crore) contract by ISRO, officials said it was a good deal for the space agency which made a profit of USD 40 million (Rs 200 crore) in this venture.

"ISRO builds such spacecraft without payloads for less than Rs 200 crore. That way we made a good profit", an ISRO official said.

ISRO Chairman G Madhavan Nair was present at the Europe's spaceport of Kourou in French Guiana when the W2M spacecraft was Launched, along with HOT BIRD satellite built by EADS Astrium, Europe's leading satellite system specialist.

"It (W2M) is comparable to INSAT-4 series. For the first time, we have built a satellite for a foreign customer. So, that's why the launch is important for us", Nair said. W2M project was undertaken in the context of an accord signed during the visit of President of France on February 20, 2006, at New Delhi between Antrix corporation Ltd., the commercial arm of the India's Department of Space and EADS Astrium to jointly build the satellite.

ISRO spokesperson S Satish said "weighing 3,462 kg at lift-off, W2M is the heaviest spacecraft built by the Indian space agency till date. It was built in 26 months".

Designed for an operational lifetime of 15 years, W2M carries 32 transponders. It will provide both television and radio broadcasting services for Eutelsat. ISRO would also be in-charge of early in-orbit operations of W2M, Satish said.

ISRO built W2M under contracts signed between its marketing arm Antrix and EADS Astrium in February 2006 to provide communication satellites for the international market.

Under the W2M contract, EADS Astrium was the prime contractor in charge of overall programme management and built communication payload. Antrix/ISRO built the satellite bus, integrated and tested the spacecraft.

Nair said ISRO is building another satellite Hylas under the ISRO-EADS Astrium alliance.

Officials said the communication satellite Hylas (Highly Adaptable Satellite) is a hybrid Ka Band/Ku Band satellite with European coverage.

The satellite would be used mainly to provide broadband internet access and to distribute and broadcast High Definition Television (HDTV).

ISRO is building it for the UK's satellite operator Avanti Screenmedia Group plc.

Satish said Hylas is expected to be shipped in March or April.

[sivadnoj] 15/12/2008 09:54

New equity development note highlighting the potential of the BIC product.

PATENTED DISASTER RECOVERY
PRODUCT
Avanti Communications have announced a contract to install its Business Internet
Continuity (BIC) with its first ISP, Network Flow.
BIC has been two years in development and effectively allows a
company/government to route its traffic seamlessly over a satellite in the event
that there is a disruption in the terrestrial network.
The innovative aspect of BIC is that traffic can be re-routed while maintaining the
same IP addresses. Ordinarily, if there is network failure, customers have one of
two options: to create new IP addresses and re-route the traffic (this can take up
to 48 hours) or wait for the network to be restored. In either event there is
disruption to communication, which results in lost productivity as employees are
unable to communicate or lost revenue opportunities, as companies are unable to
connect with customers.
In addition to the technical challenges associated with the product, BIC requires
Avanti to interconnect with an ISP's networks. Facilitating this has not been easy
because ISP's are very reluctant to allow any 3rd party onto their networks for
fear that it could compromise security.
For the product to work, the end customer will need to install a dish which
connects to Avanti's satellite so that the traffic can be rerouted over its satellite
and onto another network.
It is estimated that most companies experience some form of disruption to their
Internet connectivity every year. This can last from a matter of hours to days. For
£50 per month customers can now operate in the knowledge that this interference
is a thing of the past; except in the event that every network in the UK collapses.
In Europe Avanti will market the product through ISPs which will then use HYLAS.
In other parts of the world there are licensing possibilities.
The market opportunity is large. We estimate that in the UK private sector alone
there are some 200,000 companies (source: Department for Business Enterprise
and Regulatory Reform) where this product would be applicable and which we
estimate is worth at least £120m (i.e. 200,000 x £50 (monthly fee) x 12
(annualised)) a year. This figure excludes public sector and other non-government
organisations and organisations with multisite locations (who would pay a fee per
site).
In addition to the UK, there is potential to license BIC to other satellite
operators and disaster recovery companies. If Avanti can achieve this,
this is potentially a large revenue stream in addition to the core satellite
business. We have not included any BIC numbers in our forecasts but will
review the situation once we see more clients signing up.

[jelignite] 11/12/2008 17:02

Thanks AA29

[sivadnoj] 11/12/2008 15:30

Thanks AA29.

[aa29] 11/12/2008 15:27

For me, the message was to reinforce how the business plan had moved on. A couple of years ago, my impression was that the satellite capacity would be sold on a largely wholesale basis with a bit of own (higher margin) business.

Now the focus is very much on own (higher margin) business with vast opportunites (and EU funding) for rural broadband and on potential business with mobile telephone operators who are now realising they have a use for Avanti satellite services. I would suggest that this means eventual revenues could be a fair bit higher than in current forecasts. That was the good news, the bad side may be possible launch delays (see above).

[sivadnoj] 11/12/2008 14:56

AA29 - the AGM came and went without me noticing. Any other useful insights?

[aa29] 11/12/2008 14:38

I discussed the launch date with DW at the AGM. No firm dates but he suggested second half of 09 (there is a plan B apparently if delays get too long) and I came away thinking that it would be Q4 09 but not to bet/rely on that !!

[sivadnoj] 11/12/2008 12:09

Between March and December 2009 is all the company/equity development has said at this stage. Realistically it won't be before mid 09 because the Falcon 9 rocket isn't scheduled for first launch until around then. Nonetheless, I would expect some strong newsflow between now and then with (hopefully) a run up in the share price towards launch time.

[bubbleandleek] 10/12/2008 14:57

paup, don't give me you head and shoulders, knees and toes rubbish on a stock like this..... i do believe in charts for all they're worth but on small cap illiquid stuff like this it doesn't work mate...... on pg 267 of your Technical Analysis for Dummies book fyi.