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AVN Avanti Communications Group Plc

0.0526
0.00 (0.00%)
01 Aug 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avanti Communications Group Plc LSE:AVN London Ordinary Share GB00B1VCNQ84 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 0.0526 0.05 0.10 - 0.00 01:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

Showing 451 to 473 of 19600 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  28  27  26  25  24  23  22  21  20  19  18  17  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
10/12/2008
11:37
I think networkFlow are like a reselelr who will sell the product to all theri corporate clients sites, i dont think thtis is just one £50 sale ?
terryebby
10/12/2008
10:25
well, hope we get more than one £50/month contract and some director buying at levels above those reported today.
guess every little helps plus not a good market to see too much positive movement in and around!

chrissey
10/12/2008
09:58
i like the release today. the disaster recovery business is brilliant - it means you can sell your capacity many many times over
terryebby
10/12/2008
01:02
still a large seller around
paup
08/12/2008
13:52
This seems a prime candidate to appear at least in some tipters "stocks to watch" in 2009.
sivadnoj
05/12/2008
19:17
Terryebby,LOL
sg31
05/12/2008
18:51
paup, take your voodoo chartist psudo pap somewhere else. its crass and annoying !
terryebby
05/12/2008
16:43
Hmmm....shows what happens in this market when you go four days without news of a major contract win. Come on guys, pull your finger out. Only one win this week - that's a shocking performance. :)
sivadnoj
05/12/2008
13:03
looks like a head and shoulders a close below 160 opens up a drop to around 80p to me .
paup
05/12/2008
12:22
take a look at the six month chart. The price always bou8nces fast and hard when it reaches the LOW share price it has hit today (on small volumes). A definite BUY signal
terryebby
01/12/2008
09:50
Off we go again with a strong hint of more to come.

"But added to that, the spending now
being undertaken by the EU on rural broadband roll-outs makes us feel increasingly recession
proof. We expect strong further contract win
news flow soon."

sivadnoj
28/11/2008
15:45
yeah the brokers need to do their job and fnid some fund managers with the right combination of cojones, brains and money. Actually, it would not take much of any of those three to get the share price rocketing
terryebby
28/11/2008
15:43
No - but I'll be disappointed if we don't keep to the run rate of around 3 a week. DW seems pretty confident that the recent embassy tour should result in more contract awards. A shame that the share price seems relatively unmoved in the face of this onslaught of news.
sivadnoj
28/11/2008
15:35
mr davis are you going to make a spread on the date of the next RNS ?
terryebby
28/11/2008
10:42
Another good recommendation in Red Hot Penny shares email saying buy up to 220p
dolores123
28/11/2008
10:22
About time too. That's four days since the last contract win....!
sivadnoj
25/11/2008
17:05
Hopefully it will perform better than some of your other recent ramps!
argy2
25/11/2008
11:08
GECR note on Avanti Communications:

24th November 2008
Analyst: Steven Moore
steven.moore@t1ps.com
020 7562 3392







Avanti Communications Group*
Buy at 186.5p – Target Price: 779p




Key Data


EPIC
AVN


Share Price
186.5p


Spread
183p – 190p


Total no of shares
27,708,503


Market Cap
£51.68 million


12 Month Range
139p – 267.5p


Net Cash
£3.24 million


Market
AIM


Website
www.avantiplc.com


Sector
Telecommunications


Contact
David Williams (Chief Executive)
020 7749 1600

Avanti Communications Group Plc is an AIM-listed satellite operator, which is fully funded and set, in 2009, to become the first company to launch a leading-edge 'Ka band' satellite covering Europe. The company is particularly focussing on the £1 billion per annum European satellite broadband market which is expected to grow in size to over £4 billion per annum by 2016.

Satellite operators in Europe have traditionally neglected this market, because both capacity and ground hardware were considered too expensive, and incumbent operators have therefore instead focussed on the television market. However, technological advancements mean that Avanti's satellite, HylasOne, is strongly cost competitive and the company now looks ideally positioned to exploit the significant segment of the European broadband market poorly served by limited competition and which the European Parliament describes as "crucial for business growth, societal development and the enhancement of public services."

Indeed, so crucial is this market segment perceived that €1.8 billion of EU structural funds have been made available to support rural broadband projects between now and 2013. Avanti has already shown success in its ability to access this funding and with the HylasOne project fully funded and the company's recent full-year results announcement emphasising that a launch within a March to December 2009 window remains "on schedule", a current share price of 186.5p, capitalising the company at £51.68 million, looks to significantly fail to fairly reflect the cash flows which HylasOne should soon start to generate.

Our discounted cash flow model suggests HylasOne alone justifies a share price of 615p per share. We then assume the launch of a further two, larger satellites by 2012, the estimated cash flows of which we apply a risk weighting of 90%, in addition to a 10% discount rate, to in order to reflect that no forward sales, project financing or procurement have yet been achieved. This suggests each contributes 82p per share to the current valuation but as development progress is made, our heavy risk weighting will be reduced and our valuation could thereby increase significantly.

It is worth noting that the resultant 779p per share valuation our models place on Avanti include nothing for the company's orbital licences, which have a clear value to industry competitors. This gives us further comfort and at 186.5p, with a target price of 779p, our stance is buy.






Forecasts Table

Year to 30th June
Sales (£ million)
Underlying
Pre-tax Profit (£ million)
Underlying Earnings Per Share (p)
Price Earnings Ratio
Dividends Per Share (p)
Dividend Yield (%)

2007A
2.56
(3.15)
(8.75)
-
0.0
-

2008A
5.92
(1.36)
(3.60)
-
0.0
-

2009E
7.00
(1.00)
(3.61)
-
0.0
-


Background


The company's original business was established in 1996 by David Bestwick, now Avanti Communication's Technical Director, to develop applications for satellite technology, initially providing consulting services to companies and government agencies in the space industry.

In 2005 the UK communications regulator, Ofcom, awarded Avanti the right to provide satellite services using the geostationary orbital position at 33.5 degrees West which provides coverage of most of Europe. A few months later the company announced it had been awarded a €34 million grant by the European Space Agency which was complemented by a £25 million equity fund raising to provide the initial capital to satisfy the funding commitments under the European Space Agency agreement and begin construction of the HylasOne satellite. The satellite is being constructed by Astrium, a wholly owned subsidiary of leading aerospace and defence company, EADS.

The new company formed to exploit this opportunity, Avanti Communications Group Plc, listed on AIM on 16th April 2007 and a few months after listing announced it had signed a facility agreement with a syndicate of lenders to borrow £32 million over a term of seven years. This has enabled the company to complete the financing of satellite construction, secure launch services and insurance, enter into long-term strategic partnerships with Inmarsat (for satellite control services) and BT (for satellite traffic management – including the uplinking facility to transfer traffic between HylasOne and the internet) and means no further funding is required for the HylasOne project. A recent results statement confirmed "production of the satellite is proceeding well" and that it is "on schedule to launch within the previously announced window of March to December 2009".



Operations


Avanti currently provides satellite capacity and managed network services in Europe via leased capacity to customers including telecommunication and media network operators. This has enabled it to build distribution channels and establish business which it will transfer to HylasOne – and which should resultantly become significantly more profitable - on the satellite's launch.

Avanti is also established as a consulting business, providing technology study and development services to governmental agencies and corporates. It is currently engaged in a number of contracts exploring applications for satellite technology including road-user charging and disaster alerting. However, it is the Hylas satellite project and in particular the selling of HylasOne capacity which is currently the company's major focus.

HylasOne

The HylasOne satellite aims to build on the compelling advantage satellite has over other technologies - of being able to deliver a homogenous service regardless of location – by incorporating an advanced communications payload with both Ka and Ku band spectrum. Its launch will make Avanti the first company with 'Ka band' capability covering Europe. Ka operates at a higher frequency than the frequently used Ku band and provides high power capacity suitable for high data telecommunications and high-definition television. With increasing consumer expectations, together with improvements in enabling technologies now meaning the use of Ka band frequencies are able to significantly improve the efficiency of a satellite's power, it has become clear that Ka band represents the future direction of satellite data traffic. This can be evidenced from the success of start up Ka band operators in the USA where a similar business model to Avanti's is already being proven. In particular WildBlue Communications Inc. has almost filled its first such satellite in the second year of operation and WildBlue as well as fellow US based companies, Hughes Communications Inc. and Viasat Inc., are now implementing further Ka band satellite projects.

HylasOne is a highly adaptable satellite able, unlike traditional satellites with fixed beam designs, to dynamically allocate power between different beams and use a wide range of different frequencies while in orbit. This will enable Avanti to maximise the value of the satellite during its 15 year design life and adds further to the value opportunity created by the relative inexpensiveness of HylasOne's construction as a result of the utilisation of leading-edge technology. These features mean the satellite is able to provide up to 3,000 MegaHertz (MHz) capacity despite a relatively small launch mass.



The Market


Continuing technological advancements feeding increased demand, together with considerable barriers to entry restricting supply, look to provide Avanti with a significant market opportunity.

The company's "main focus" for HylasOne is the 24 million homes and SME's in Europe that recent EU data shows have been left un-served by terrestrial broadband networks. HylasOne, benefiting from the unique reach of satellite technology, is comfortably able to serve over two thirds of this market – which is currently a key area of attention across Europe. This is demonstrated in €1.8 billion of EU structural funds having been made available to support rural broadband projects between now and 2013 and a European Parliament resolution of 19th June 2007 noting:

"the European Parliament sees the deployment of broadband networks offering reliable transmission at competitive bandwidth as crucial for business growth, societal development and the enhancement of public services."

Given such support, the continuingly growing demand for broadband and that in some markets such as the UK, broadband penetration in rural areas already exceeds that of urban areas, satellite broadband looks to have an immediate market opportunity as well as the estimated potential to capture comfortably over 10 million subscribers within this section of the EU market. This is without a significant further opportunity which looks to exist at the terrestrial market 'fringe' – with research showing that 40% of European homes are located more than three kilometres from telephone exchanges; restricting access to advertised speeds. Indeed the early experience of Avanti's Ka band forerunners in the USA shows that the cost and technology advantages of their offering enable competition against other networks; facilitating further growth of the satellite broadband market.

The market opportunity today thereby looks to have significantly advanced from the 2005 Department of Trade and Industry funded study upon which the HylasOne project was based and which concluded that total potential European demand for satellite broadband was 12 million consumers and SME's, of which 4 million would subscribe to satellite.

Meanwhile in the enterprise market, demand for private corporate networks is also expected to continue a strong growth trend – with business continuity services for dealing with emergencies increasingly a key concern. Avanti also sees significant opportunities in the distribution of broadcast data and 'backhaul' (the network system to get data from base station to the network core). In particular, for areas below a certain population density the costs to mobile operators of deploying conventional infrastructure with terrestrial backhaul can be prohibitive and mobile base stations and the supporting network of backhaul were originally scaled to cope with voice traffic, not the very high data traffic now created by the use of mobile internet devices. It is resultantly becoming increasingly apparent that many base stations are unable to cope with the demand for 'backhaul' connectivity; a problem Avanti is able to solve cost effectively and flexibly via satellite.

A recent Avanti-commissioned study, conducted by specialist telecoms market consultant Euroconsult, showed that high and increasing demand coupled with tight supply in the European satellite market has led to rates for Ku band satellite capacity increasing to between $2,500 (£1,500) and $6,000 (£3,700) per MHz per month. Based on its information on demand and pricing, Avanti has concluded that the markets for satellite broadband services within the areas served by HylasOne could, by 2016, consume 92 satellites the size of HylasOne and be worth up to £4.2bn per annum.



Strategy


During the past year Avanti has focussed on what it sees as the "core opportunity" for HylasOne - selling satellite broadband in Europe to wholesale clients. It reaches end-users via distributors targeting the consumer, enterprise and institutional markets and often acts in consortia with these distributors to maximise the strength of bids.

A significant amount of the company's committed revenue has resulted from the 'virtual network operator' model it has borrowed from the mobile phone industry. This, through the utilisation of bespoke software, enables customers to manage their 'networks' themselves – allowing them to benefit from the economics and flexibility of being a network operator without making significant capital expenditure or staffing up a large operations team. The model sees Avanti supply a managed service including all up-linking, switching, network management and second line support, with the distributor selling, supporting and billing.

The strategy Avanti has adopted has previously been neglected because both capacity and ground hardware were considered too expensive. However, technological advancements mean HylasOne is strongly cost competitive – enabling the supply of speeds of up to 8Mb per second and prices from £8 per month. With the next generation of modems due in 2010, HylasOne should be able to provide speeds of up to 200Mb per second across its coverage area.

Distribution progress has also been aided by the company exploiting the cost effectiveness of the Hylas project by selling capacity in small and flexible units. This has helped Avanti to develop a distribution network of 24 partner companies, each with minimum volume commitments, in ten countries (England, Ireland, Scotland, Spain, Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Italy, Serbia and Albania) across Europe. This strategy, together with the company's current operations has seen Avanti already secure a string of contracts - the service of which will migrate across to, or commence from, HylasOne's launch – despite it not being typical in the industry for a high percentage of satellite capacity to be pre-sold during the construction phase. The contracts Avanti has announced and details released are summarised in the following table.



Date Announced
Client
Detail

06/2006
Unnamed
£7 million

16/04/2007
Satweb Ltd
7 years - £528,000 incorporating a ramp up to £4.8 million

01/06/2007
STM Norway
2 ½ years - £875,000

03/12/2007
STM Group
54 MHz for 15 years - £8.75 million
(£900 per MHz per month)

17/03/2008
Datasat Communications Ltd
36 MHz for 5 years – £5 million
(£2,315 per MHz per month)

26/06/2008
Scottish Government
£3.3 million - to bring broadband services to premises across Scotland that wish to access it but are out of the reach of terrestrial provision.

02/07/2008
SATdsl
3 years - £100,000

26/08/2008
Unnamed provider in Albania
Wholesale partnership agreement - pursuing immediate contract opportunities with a potential value of £1.3 million.

01/09/2008
Unnamed provider in Germany
Distribution agreement – focused on pursuing rural broadband projects.

08/09/2008
TTComm (Poland)
Distribution agreement - focused on pursuing rural broadband projects funded by the European Commission as well as other corporate business.

10/09/2008
CO.NA.In (Italy)
Distribution agreement - focused on pursuing rural broadband projects funded by the Italian Regions.

13/10/2008
Remote Data Services Ltd
3 years - £250,000

14/10/2008
Prime Satellite Broadband
3 years - £228,000

27/10/2008
Micromagic Ltd (Ireland)
Wholesale broadband services contract – €100,000 minimum order commitment.

19/11/2008
The Northern Ireland Broadband Fund
£120,000 - to install and demonstrate satellite backhaul systems to support mobile phone base stations in under-served rural areas.

24/11/2008
Northern Ireland Government Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment (DETI)
DETI has informed that it intends to award a £1.1 million contract to Avanti for the supply of remote broadband services.




Avanti's market leadership, early success and accelerating momentum in winning contracts and strategy of working with local partners suggests the company is well positioned going forward to access the EU structural funds which have been made available to support rural broadband. A recently completed month long tour of British embassies across Europe to promote HylasOne is also expected to generate significant new contract flow in the near term, though the company also has a longer-term perspective - which envisages the launch of additional satellites.

Although market forecasts suggest HylasOne's marketplace is itself large enough to sustain dramatic growth significantly into the future, Avanti announced in July 2007 that it had entered into contracts to acquire the rights to use certain new Ka band frequencies, amounting to some 14 GigaHertz (GHz) of spectrum, in new orbital positions covering India, Central Asia, the Middle East, Russia, Eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America – facilitating the company being able to launch additional satellites to cover these markets. With demand in these territories also strong and competition in Ka band services currently either light or non-existent, Avanti looks to have a significant opportunity to extend its early mover advantage into these areas. The company plans to elicit early stage commitments from relevant parties and to use these to support the efficient raising of capital for further satellite procurements.



Management


John Brackenbury - Non-executive Chairman
A leading industrialist with over 40 years experience in the leisure and retail sector, Brackenbury was Chairman of the holding company of the Pubmaster Group at its formation in 1991. The company was sold to Punch Taverns Plc for £1.2 billion in 2003.

David Williams - Chief Executive
A former investment banker specialising in media and telecommunications finance at Chase Manhattan and CIBC, Williams joined Avanti as a result of a merger with his company, Amba Broadband Ltd, in May 2002. He is a member of the British Government's Space Advisory Council.

Nigel Fox – Finance Director
With technology industry experience from time as group Financial Controller at ARC International, where he assisted in its stock market listing in October 2000, and as Chief Financial Officer of privately owned console games developer Climax Group, where he successfully completed a series of leveraged finance and M&A transactions, Fox was appointed Finance Director in 2007. He qualified with the London office of Ernst & Whinney and became a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales in 1987 and an associate member of the Association of Corporate Treasurers in 1991.

David Bestwick - Technical Director
The founder of the business now carried on by Avanti Communications, Bestwick graduated from the University of Leicester in 1987 with a BSc in Physics with Astrophysics and following three years at Marconi Research Centre, he joined VEGA Group Plc in 1990 where he worked on a wide range of satellite applications projects.

Richard Vos - Non-Executive Director
Previously head of satellite investments for BT, Vos has over 37 years of industry experience. He participated in the privatisation of Inmarsat Ventures in 1999 and served as governor for the UK and Ireland on the board of Intelsat. A member of the UK Government's Space Advisory Council and chairman of their Telecommunications and Navigation Advisory Board, Vos is also currently Non-Executive Chairman of fellow AIM-listed SatCom Group Holdings and a non-executive director of NSSC Operations Ltd.

Alan Foster - Non-Executive Director
A senior partner of de Zoete & Bevan for over 20 years, Foster was appointed Deputy Chairman on its merger which formed BZW Asset Management, the forerunner of Barclays Global Investors.

William Wyatt - Non-Executive Director
A director of Caledonia Investments, Wyatt has previously worked for Close Brothers Corporate Finance.

Ian Taylor – Non-Executive Director
Conservative MP for Esher and Walton, Taylor entered Parliament in 1987 after a career in investment and corporate finance. He was Minister for Science and Technology at the Department of Trade and Industry between 1994 and 1997 and now chairs the Conservative Party's Policy Task-force on Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics. He is also Chairman of the Conservative Group for Europe and joined Avanti in June 2008.



Significant Shareholders


Avanti currently has 27,708,503 shares in issue. Those holding 3% or more of the current issued share capital are:






Recent Results, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow



Avanti's most recent results were for the year ended 30th June 2008. These showed a 57% reduction in the underlying pre-tax loss to £1.36 million on revenue up over 131% to £5.92 million. After an income tax credit the reported loss was £994,000.

The income statement was impacted by a £871,000 share based payments charge as a result of share options issued to staff and directors during the year. This is reflected in a cash flow statement which shows despite a net £2.67 million having been used in operations during the year, £1.94 million of this represents an increase in debtors as a result of the company increasing its level of activity and £589,000 a net foreign exchange gain as Avanti hedges all currency transaction exposures at the time of entering into a contractual commitment.

At period end the balance sheet showed £35.24 million of cash – largely as a result of the July 2007 £32 million debt finance facility which means the HylasOne project is fully financed. This facility together with £4 million of proceeds from the issue of shares and a net £1.56 million of interest saw cash holdings increase by £25.29 million during the period despite a £7.54 million capital expenditure outflow.



SWOT Analysis



Avanti's HylasOne satellite builds on the general advantages satellite has over other technologies – in particular the ability to deliver a homogeneous service over wide areas, including to users in remote and rural locations, and the ability to remain operational in situations where terrestrial networks fail – by utilising leading-edge Ka band technology which delivers both cost and quality advantages over the existing market. This ideally positions it in a European market characterised by high and increasing levels of demand and tight supply.

In particular, the growth of satellite television in Eastern Europe, new digital television channels, the emergence of high-definition television, which is germinal in Europe compared to the US and consumes up to ten times more satellite capacity than standard digital television, and the increasing complexity of services transmittable over a telecoms link, such as video, are expected to result in continued increased demand for satellite capacity. Specifically in terms of broadband, this has become a fundamental personal and business communication tool worldwide and with large scale pan-European support for rural broadband provision, this looks to be an attractive niche for Avanti.

These demand dynamics, not to mention those of other markets such as private corporate networks, data distribution for terrestrial network operators and cellular backhaul, co-exist with scarce, finite and highly regulated satellite spectrum, high capital intensiveness and a limited number of skilled industry personnel. Such barriers to entry, together with consolidation amongst existing satellite operators means there are presently only eight licenced fixed satellite services operators – including Avanti – active in Europe; many of which have high investment in fleets of Ku band technology and so are not expected to change to Ka band quickly.

This looks to present Avanti with significant opportunity. The company has already shown success in its ability to access its target market – with a backlog of committed revenues and strong distribution network being built up in advance of HylasOne's launch. The opportunity also undoubtedly exists to launch further satellites following HylasOne – considering not only the rapid growth forecast for the European satellite industry but also the potential of the emerging territories over which Avanti has acquired the rights to use certain new Ka band frequencies in new orbital positions.

The company has previously made it clear that in advance of further satellite launches it would elicit early stage commitments from relevant parties and seek to utilise these to support the efficient raising of capital. However, given current stock market and macro-economic conditions, there is a risk Avanti will be unable to access the required capital at competitive rates. Given this credit climate, it is reassuring that the company managed to successfully complete the financing for the HylasOne project in mid 2007 – though it did so at a not insignificant cost; interest on the company's 7 year bullet repayment loan accrues on a quarterly basis at LIBOR +10.5%, with early repayment permitted from December 2009. The structure of this debt means Avanti cannot borrow against the cash flow from HylasOne until it is refinanced or repaid, though it should equally be noted that although appearing oppressive such debt terms are competitive by reference to Avanti's industry peers.

Further threats include history suggesting there is around a 3% chance of equipment failure and, with Ka band now rapidly becoming seen as representing the future direction of satellite data traffic, like-minded competitors gradually emerging in Avanti's markets - Eutelsat, for example, has also revealed plans for a Ka band satellite covering Europe. The structure of the industry means these competitors are also likely to have greater resources than Avanti.

However, it should be noted that Avanti has an insurance policy for HylasOne – with a sum insured of £89 million, covering the full extent of the equity and debt invested together with interest to be accrued - and the high barriers to entry together with the size of the total European satellite market suggest the company will continue to be well positioned going forward; with its spectrum covering other territories providing additional, highly prospective diversification potential.

Other potential threats include changes in regulatory policy, competitors making technological advances and launch being postponed due to delays or failure of construction or the launch process itself.



Valuation, Forecasts and Conclusion



We believe that going forward the company's operations outside of its core satellite programme will generate broadly enough cash to cover their own costs and the corporate overhead. We therefore derive our valuation of Avanti entirely from its satellite prospects.

We have modelled HylasOne on the basis that it will achieve 20% capacity utilisation on launch, stepping up to 90% from its third year of operation onwards and with leasing rates of £1,500 per MHz per month across the satellite's 15 year design life. Using a 10% discount rate, we derive a net present value for HylasOne's future cash flows of £170.47 million – equating to 615p per Avanti share.

However, various factors suggest our model is conservative. The demand-supply dynamics of Avanti's market suggests the company should be able to more fully utilise capacity – and crucially, sell it at a higher price than we assume. This is supported by the company's increasing momentum of pre-launch contracts, prices for Ku band capacity in the European satellite market continuing to increase and £1,500 per MHz per month being at the bottom of a range which goes up to £3,700 per MHz per month and Avanti having already demonstrated an ability to negotiate higher prices than used in our model despite still being in the pre-launch stage. We have assumed no opex inflation in our model either which may negate some of the benefits of the higher pricing for capacity we expect Avanti to achieve but even considering this, the risks look significantly more upside than downside oriented.

We additionally assume the launch of a further two, larger satellites by 2012 as Avanti exploits not only the spectrum awarded to it by Ofcom in 2005 but also that acquired across the range of territories in 2007. Our model for these satellites assumes similar utilisation rates to HylasOne but a lower leasing rate of £1,000 per MHz per month to reflect the embryonic stage of the market in these countries. In addition to a 10% discount rate we apply a further 90% risk weighting to the estimated cash flows from these satellites to reflect that no forward sales, project financing or procurement have yet been achieved. This suggests each contributes 82p per share to the current valuation but as development progress is made, our heavy risk weighting will be reduced and our valuation could thereby increase significantly.

This suggests a valuation of 779p per share. However, it is also worth noting that this includes nothing for the company's orbital licences, which have a clear value to industry competitors. In a cataclysmic scenario in which HylasOne is destroyed on launch, Avanti would, post insurance claim, be in a position to repay its lenders, possess net cash of around £50 million and be in a position to use this to facilitate the launch of a replacement satellite in two years. With a current market capitalisation of £51.68 million that limits the downside. The upside is clear. At 186.5p, with a target price of 779p, our stance is buy.



Forecasts Table

Year to 30th June
Sales (£ million)
Underlying
Pre-tax Profit (£ million)
Underlying Earnings Per Share (p)
Price Earnings Ratio
Dividends Per Share (p)
Dividend Yield (%)

2007A
2.56
(3.15)
(8.75)
-
0.0
-

2008A
5.92
(1.36)
(3.60)
-
0.0
-

2009E
7.00
(1.00)
(3.61)
-
0.0
-


I should declare that Avanti Communications is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, for whom I work, and that RSH owns shares in Avanti.


Anna Faelten
Rivington Street Holdings

anna faelten
24/11/2008
17:20
£1.1m is to cover the costs of installing network infrastructure. After that, they should receive subscription income of c£425k per annum.

I like the way they keep picking these off.

sivadnoj
24/11/2008
17:14
£1.6m ? Thats about a fifth of the years revenues isnt it ? I would say marvellous news.
terryebby
24/11/2008
07:40
Yawn.....another day another contract win.
sivadnoj
23/11/2008
14:04
they must have gone away for a long weekend !
terryebby
21/11/2008
12:27
Wot? No contract wins for two days?
sivadnoj
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