Augean Share Discussion Threads

[azalea] 05/9/2008 08:14

RNS on the 26/8 stated that 151 Ltd had made an approach to AUG with regards to the "possibility" of making an offer for the whole of it's share issue. No price was mentioned.

[site manager] 05/9/2008 06:38

The releases are all carefully worded.
I most certainly do not believe a price has not been mentioned.
For what its worth as a stand alone co I think Aug is cheap at current prices.
I use Aug tips, and although expensive the consensus among us is that they are going to get more expensive.

[cerrito] 04/9/2008 23:15

I am also in this and watching developments with a gut feel that this will be taken out..sold about 22% of my holdings at 106 ish just to cover my bets and will go back in if the price continues to weaken.
As cyberian say son 23/9 we may get something concrete but as SM says we are bit part spectators.

[cyberian] 04/9/2008 22:01

S M ..read the releases again....AUG indicated that they had received approaches which could lead to an offer at a significant premium...One51 susequently confirmed that they had made a preliminary approach to AUG for an all cash offer BUT with no absolute commitment.

[site manager] 04/9/2008 19:51

On the 26/8 Aug said they had been made an offer at a "significant premium to the current share price"
To make that statement a figure must have been mentioned.
Just after this one51 confirmed they had approach aug.
It seems to me given the very small number of PI`S (like us), that this figure
is in the hands of a very few men.
Looks like Cycladic got it right. ( for once ).
SM.

[azalea] 04/9/2008 17:14

site manager
Re offer. That is news to me, what are the details?

[site manager] 04/9/2008 16:43

Cyberian - One 51 have made an offer to AUG, are they not duty bound - if they choose to buy shares in the market - to not pay any more than that offer ?.
Still holding.
SM

[cyberian] 04/9/2008 13:48

Looks like there are just 4/5 of us posting on this situation...have a further thought regarding possible outcome. First I agree that the scheduled results on 23/9 may be used as the date of an offer, but what intrigues me is that if GS went from 6.87% to under 3% as stated on 1/9, then at the min. they could have sold 3.88%. Now IF One51 were the conditional takers that would put them over 30% and would trigger a minimum bid at whatever they gave GS. Not sure when they would be forced by the take-over panel to inform the market...of course there is the possibility that GS sold to ANother in which case that party will have to declare the purchase. Again my view is why would One51 not make an offer after making the approach as with such a large holding/interest they MUST have a good insight/expectations for AUG. Guess it is all down to price/value...sense that they would wish to get a positive consensus from the other main holders who are "financial" bodies, who will make a financial decision. Only a party with direct expertise/interest in the waste business would see how the future of AUG could be enhanced. Good luck....

[azalea] 04/9/2008 11:48

An 111K sale is neither here nor there and could be for one of a host of reasons. Post Interims might be an opportunity for 151 Ltd to make a move!

[cyberian] 04/9/2008 11:01

At a loss to understand the Henderson transaction...looks like they sold out a small option, but retain over 7% of the company shares. Guess One51 would be able to leverage/advance the company's business at a faster pace as they have the skills/resources etc. Having 27% and stating the possibility of an all cash bid it would seem that it is simply agreeing a price which the other sizeable holders would be happy to accept. One would think that they made their move after considerable thought/planning and would want to protect their investment value.....??

[azalea] 03/9/2008 16:15

It will take some bid to get 151 Ltd to hand over its stake bought @ circa 145p. At the end of the day as long as 151 Ltd keep a hold of its stake there will always be the potential for it to bid and unless someone comes up with the money I will continue to hold for as long as it takes.

[cyberian] 03/9/2008 14:56

With close to 95% of the shares in the hands of major investor names etc. the destiny of AUG is in their hands as to what they would accept in cash..cash is what One51 have indicated they will use IF they decide to proceed. Always a chance that they will not agree a fair price, in which case they may elect to sell-out to another bidder.

[lbo] 03/9/2008 13:09

Perhaps it was dispersed between a few arbitrage holders? It looks like someone is buying at this level IMHO

[cyberian] 03/9/2008 12:30

How long before we learn where the GS stake went...executed on 28/8, and reported 1/9?

[lbo] 03/9/2008 12:25

mms seem desperate to try and shake some holders

[cyberian] 03/9/2008 09:18

Good to know that you are still here...the GS stake whereabouts is now the key clue to future events. Difficult to see why One51 would not push through an opening cash offer even if not endorsed by the AUG Board, as Institutions holders may wish for an exit provided reasonable offer is made. One51 are in the strongest position but any weakness and the other interested parties could move. Maybe wrong but would expect some action one way or the other fairly soon...bonus for One51 is that the Euro is still very strong against £pound, but in all seriousness the Euro must also weaken soon as their economies are at least if not weaker than us here in the UK.

[lbo] 02/9/2008 19:18

Cyberian still here and waiting for a formal offer which I expect to come soon.

Its then a matter of waiting to see if we get a counter bid from one of the other parties.

[battlebus] 02/9/2008 18:36

Still here and waiting for news and will not be selling as my average is around the 1.20 mark so with any luck i'll maybe turn a profit. Even if the deal doesn't go through this will still be a long term winner.

[cyberian] 02/9/2008 18:20

LBO, battlebus...have you already decided to exit? Still like to know where the GS stake or part thereof found its home.

[cyberian] 02/9/2008 15:14

Invesco declared their 750,000 purchase (1.14%)on 28th Aug. at 103p within the stated time requirement of 3.30 pm the following day. So does anyone know when One51 would have to declare IF they were indeed the purchaser of the GS 6.87% holding or part thereof to bring GS below the stated 3% level? There is a suggestion that a price of just above 120p will be the opening or indeed the winning take-out price, in cash. Again I would think it possible that if One51 are the front bidder that there would not be a conflict if some of the present key executives were retained in their roles. Maybe the non-executives would have to determine the fair value of a bid if the latter is the case?

[cyberian] 02/9/2008 09:01

Any thoughts on where the GS stake has moved...if moved in total then I guess the end-play game will be closer than we think as the taker will have to declare?

[azalea] 02/9/2008 08:29

Still here and holding tight.

[cyberian] 01/9/2008 22:32

azaela, LBO and others...where are you?

[cyberian] 01/9/2008 16:19

So Goldman effective 28th August sold down their stake below 3%, having added over 1,000,000 a month earlier. They were holding 6.87% 4,496,230, Invesco bought 750,000 at 103p on 28/8!!! Interesting to see who will declare to be the buyer of up to 6.87% as with the background of more than one party in approaches to AUG board, they obviously have sold out at an agreed price. It is likely to be above current levels and that will be the lowest they will be allowed to offer any other willing sellers. Suggests to me that it is not likely to be an agreed bid, and that it is One51 who have bought the GS stake. I could be wrong in which case any other purchaser will have to offer a more substantial premium to captuer One51's stake and the rest.

[lbo] 29/8/2008 16:30

I know. The article was before One51 picked more shares in Dec 06 again at the £1.50 level but it still shows that Augean only had large size willing buyers and sellers at the £100m valuation level.

Also add in the Altium Price Target of £1.60 in March and yet again the magical £100m value comes up!

And then to make it even more interesting One51 raised €120m around the time they were buying Augean shares which now with the strength of the EURO is now worth about £96m instead of £83m at that time.