Augean Share Discussion Threads

[haydock] 21/12/2007 09:24

Do they have to offer the price they paid for the rest?
There is a rule along those lines, clarification please.

[azalea] 21/12/2007 08:31

If AUG is set to make a recovery in 2008, then what better time for 151 Ltd to recoup its losses and bid for the rest whilst the share price is on its knees?

[azalea] 20/12/2007 18:11

the IC today continued to give a 'buy on recovery' rating, citing a EPS growth of 31% year ending Dec 2008.It added that its price was underpinned by its assets, a feature amply demonstrated by Biffa!

[bob104] 20/12/2007 17:10

Hitech for £6.25m on pre tax profit of £0.5m !! (www.hitech-ind.co.uk) what does it offer Augean. Hitech are a good company but I can't see the fit, as they are into Oil Recycling not Hazardous Waste. Hitech compete because they are small and make decisions quickly, will this continue?

[simon gordon] 20/12/2007 10:38

The third CEO does a deal. Is he not a temporary CEO?

The balance sheet is getting loaded up further.

I assume the Chairman is in fact running this company.

Maybe this is one reason why he can't hold onto a CEO.

This is a dysfunctional company!!

Good fortune!

[azalea] 20/12/2007 09:16

It certainly appears to have please the City.

[haydock] 20/12/2007 09:04

Aquisition today, at last some action & a good fit,should please 151!!!

[cerrito] 19/12/2007 21:54

bob104
Thank you nfor your contribution and industry insight
Appreciate when you have a moment your thoughts as to the strategic/tactical errors/misjudgements made over the last couple of years

[bob104] 19/12/2007 15:29

Azalea – unfortunately I do hold AUG, although not nearly as much I did. I was lucky and sold the vast majority at £1.80. I don't need to read the reports on Biffa and Shanks. I know this industry very well and have worked at the highest level for the past 20 years. You are correct that they are all in the waste management industry but that is it. The industry has many segments and Augean are clearly in the hazardous waste landfill area with a little treatment. Shanks has no hazardous waste landfill or treatment. Biffa has two small hazardous treatment plants and no hazardous landfill.
There isn't any hidden agenda, I just wanted to inform you all of what the market for Augean is like. However, you clearly are not going to listen to me so I would suggest that you talk to other companies in the sector.

[simon gordon] 19/12/2007 15:10

Chuckle, chuckle.

I have been a bear on AUG for over two years!!!!

I think my target in 2005 was 60p.

Since the Irish bought a stake, holders have been praying for a t/o, whilst the share trends lower.

I am not short...

[azalea] 19/12/2007 15:06

You and Simon obviously do not hold AUG and whilst clearly reading from the same hymn sheet, equally have not read the reports on BIFF and SKS describing them along with AUG, as being in the waste management business.

Your claims of a 60p tgt(lol) for AUG, strongly suggests that you have a hidden agenda!

[bob104] 19/12/2007 14:30

Biffa and Shanks don't operate in the same market place as Augean. I agree with Simon and the price will go to 60p.

[simon gordon] 19/12/2007 14:20

Spot-on Bob. It is about time that the Chairman was shown a red card.

I think the share price is heading to 60p.

The Bulls have read this story completely wrong. If you dig deep you see the spiel spun by the Bulls is tosh.

It amazed me that the share held as high as it did over these past two years.

The first profit warning was two years ago when the share spiked down to 90p.

[haydock] 19/12/2007 14:19

An Irish aspect on Biffa:



This should have had an effect on the sp?

[azalea] 19/12/2007 14:14

Biffa up 6% - poised for a £1.22bn takeover bid. That leaves AUG and SKS.

[bob104] 19/12/2007 13:59

So far Augean have invested over £130m in to the hazardous waste market and for what return? I hear you all talking about the undervalued landfill assets but what makes you think it's undervalued? Hazardous waste is not going to landfill in any great volumes anywhere and next year changes in legislation will further reduce the volumes to landfill from the waste treatment plants.With all the changes that have taken place since the major legislation changes back in 2004 you would have thought the organization would have capitalized on this. They haven't and other waste companies have, so how good is the management? Its about time the Chairman was held accountable, he is one responsible for the first two major acquisitions. He alone picked the first two CEO's.
As for selling to Biffa etc I just don't see the fit. If they wanted Hazardous landfill they have plenty of landfill sites to apply for a change of use on. It can be done, look at Avondale in Scotland.

[azalea] 18/12/2007 10:54

The buyers moving in after the MM panicked and slashed the share price on a mere 30k of sells this morning, will reap their just rewards in 2008. 151 Ltd is now suffering a paper loss of 41% on its 26%+ stake; I do not see this continuing beyond the near term.

[cerrito] 15/12/2007 21:05

Interesting to see that following the Dec 4 site visit the price has declined albeit on low volumes..this last week when the price fell from 103 to 93.5 the total number of shares traded was 170K ie a quarter of 1% of the total shares outstanding.
Dithering about buying more..have no view as to why the previous man left but Williams is I am sure a hard task master..

[azalea] 13/12/2007 11:22

FY results in March should give us an insight on the future.

[simon gordon] 13/12/2007 11:17

Augean is now a hodge-podge of HW sites and HWT centres. The layer below the Board must be getting upset with all the changes. Are AUG able to hold on to the quality people who sweat the assets?

I think the internals at AUG are probably a shambles.

The only hope is a take over at £1.50. Maybe Biffa, or the like.

If AUG get a new CEO and he tries to build value you might still have a share price at a quid in a years time.

[azalea] 13/12/2007 11:09

I do not know why the new CEO left so soon - pushed, or, walked of his own acccrd.

My overall view is that providing the fundamentals of a company are solid, then shareholders (especially the big ones)can always call for the replacement of management for whatever reason/s. So my confidence lies in the belief that the company is undervalued, has a very large institutional holding and a major individual stakeholder to boot, all of whom in the end will make a return on their investment either through good management, and/or selling out to the highest bidder in a corporate active sector.

[simon gordon] 13/12/2007 10:37

azalea,

The biggest negative is that the CEOx2 goes on a buying spree then he leaves the company.

The Chairman should be fired for employing the wrong CEO's.

Do you have confidence he will get it right this time?

[azalea] 13/12/2007 10:35

The other major holders (some with specialist noses for smelling out bid potential)together, outgun 151 Ltd stake by at least 2:1. I would be happy if it got taken out for just its lowest estimated asset price!

[felix99] 13/12/2007 10:24

yes I don;t think there numbers will be great but at the end of the day I thnik they are sitting on an undervalued asset. Bit like a property company - do you look at the yield or the cpaital value.

Business is not great here but we are down to a value of the company at which the value of the asset outweighs this.

I just hope we don;t get had over by our Irish friends. I had a dabble at 110 but not really adding as think there is a big risk the mgt and any buyer will stitch up the shareholders and not giveus much upside for any takeover.

[azalea] 13/12/2007 10:23

greenroyd

Fair comment. That said, the small efficient operators can always be bought by the bigger fish in the food chain who are on the lookout to increase market share.

I have decided to get back into AUG for a number of reasons.

1. Very large stake bought at 50% higher than current price.
2. 88% shares in major shareholders hands.
3. Broker - Landsbanki, values land fill assets at 150-180p
3. UK landfill capacity relatively static.
4. Size enables it to bid for large contracts.
5. Sp at 3 year year low.
6. Corporate activity in sector.
7. Tipped three times by the IC since 18/9/07
8. Given the UK population explosion, demand will never shrink.
9. A safe stock in current market turmoil
10.IC- (9/11/07)"with the shares @ 113.75p Augean is valued at 12.9 times Numis Securities 2008 forecast adjusted Eps of 8.7p and is a long term recovery play. Buy".