Augean Share Discussion Threads

[cyberian] 29/8/2008 14:49

LBO..One51 hold just under 27% not 23% as above but your points are excellent...still intrigued by the large Dutch name that has a JV with AUG, and is huge! Some Institutions will be willing to sell-out even close to break-even imho as cash is king at the moment and potential bidders have cash available. Invesco purchase at 103p was opportunist perhaps and maybe just maybe sets a floor with more than one bidder in the frame.

[lbo] 29/8/2008 13:08

They still have to convince some big institutions to sell and how do they convince them to take less then what they already paid for 20% of the company?? Its also very hard to pick up stock even at the £1.10 level so it suggests a lot more upside. Still buyers around and the mms trying to shake out some sellers now. Also remember that it paid £80 million for the acquisition of Peterborough-based Atlantic (now known as Augean South) and £26m for Middlesbrough-based Zero, now re-named Augean North so again £100m is a price that comes up again.



One51 paid a 19 per cent premium to the traded share price when it bought its latest stake. It bought the stock at about 148p and, since then, the shares have gone up to 152.75p.This values the company at stg£100 million (€147 million).

It's the kind of business One51 wants and, since flotation, Augean has been well-supported by institutional investors. After One51, the next biggest shareholder is Goldman Sachs with 11 per cent. Jupiter Asset Management is in there with 5.8 per cent, along with several other institutions.

With One51 holding 23 per cent, the 7 per cent held by Adrian Kirby could be key in triggering a bid, should the former IAWS co-op decide to go all the way. Kirby sold his waste management business to Augean some years back in return for cash and shares

[battlebus] 29/8/2008 13:03

Quite true.

[azalea] 29/8/2008 13:01

If Invesco has laid out £750k+ it will certainly be looking for a bid significantly higher than 103p, not to mention the cost of its earlier purchase/s.

[cyberian] 29/8/2008 12:34

Invesco now hold 6.24% and looks like a strategic arbitrage add rather than a direct buy on behalf of "ANother", which if on behalf of One51 would have to be declared as such. Still look for 125p plus initial offer but even if One51 walk away there are other parties talking to AUG, and the former could elect to move on. However, it does appear that AUG is a good fit or vehicle for One51.

[battlebus] 29/8/2008 12:23

If thats the case 1.03 looks likely to be initial offer.

[lbo] 29/8/2008 12:20

Well it was Invesco who bought not One51 which still means they must bid around £1.45 IMHO



Augean, the waste management company that earlier this week said it had received a number of takeover approaches, jumped a further 7 to 108½p. Dealers spotted a trade of 750,000 shares, equivalent to 1.1pc of the company, change hands at 103p. The bulls speculated that suitor and major shareholder One Fifty One could be adding to its 27pc stake.

[cyberian] 28/8/2008 15:45

As I mentioned before the book value of AUG was about 152p before they decided last year to be conservative and write-down goodwill...this gave them a book value of circa 123p from memory. Of course the cost of entry in this sector is very high and therefore One51 must see added value, but also they must realise the consequence of a failure to agree an acceptable price for the remaining 74% shareholdings. Again interesting to see whether an arbitrage player snapped-up the 750,000 this morning or a party buying on behalf of One51...think under takerover rules that would have to be declared by 3.30pm today.....but not 100% sure. OK...just read the rules and it is by the following day at 3.30 pm if over 1%.

[lbo] 28/8/2008 14:16

Well I cant see how the Directors and One51 buying at £1.45 last year cant be the minimum price now that we are being told about a very positive future!



In a trading update Augean, which employs more than 200 people across its 11 sites, added its waste treatment division was "performing well and is continuing to provide much potential for the future."

The group said for the first time Augean was starting to see a "considerable, sustained upturn in activity" at its hazardous waste landfill sites.

In 2006 it warned its landfill business was going to take longer than hoped to reach its potential. It blamed this on problems in regulation and enforcement.

"Whilst this has been frustrating for all concerned, we have maintained our belief in the long-term strategic value of Augean's unique landfill assets as an important part of the solution for effective waste disposal in the UK," it said yesterday.

Augean said it had reached agreements with "certain large customers" for its landfill business, and its treatment business was performing in line with expectations.

As a result of this, Augean said it was confident market expectations would be achieved, and could even be exceeded. It will make an announcement on the bid approaches when appropriate, it said.

[cyberian] 28/8/2008 13:58

It would be reasonable for an agreed bid with management to engage the CEO and a few of the other senior AUG guys to provide continuity at the very least. They may not have got their deserved rewards in getting the company in better shape than ever (probably the reason why a few parties have approached them), and favourable retention packages/incentives are likely. One51 and the Dutch party alone have the perceived financial clout and expertise to grow the company to even greater market share and profitabilty...£1.45 would be nice!!

[lbo] 28/8/2008 13:46

If you look back the Directors were all buying last year at £1.45 so this is another reason we can expect a bid only above to be accepted above that level!

[azalea] 28/8/2008 10:59

With so few shares in free float, even moderate buying is squeezing the share price upwards.
Given the price 151 Ltd paid for its stake, any other bidder will have to make a very significant offer to capture AUG.

[cyberian] 28/8/2008 10:31

With the Euro appreciating 17.5% over the last 12 months I would hope that One51 would be offering something slightly north of 125p for the balance of the 73% they do not own. At say 125p that would be a 55% premium over the average share price of AUG over the last 12 months which in this climate would be reasonable. However, one may see another party willing to pay more and for One51 to sell-out as another poster has previously suggested. The Dutch name which has a turnover well in excess of Euro 1 billion may well see the benefit of a strong UK party like AUG as a valuable add-on to their business now that AUG appears to be even more confident in its recent re-worked strategy. Interesting to see who picked-up the 750,000 shares at 103p (1.145%) early this morning.

[azalea] 28/8/2008 10:05

Looks like we are going to see the colour of 151 Ltd money sooner than I thought. I have just added.

[cyberian] 27/8/2008 17:49

There is only a small float of free shares with large blocks being held/retained by various interested parties. One51 are likely to have been looking at their options for some time, and whether they wish to reverse into AUG. They hold the key block and would probably have a fair idea how the other holders will view their move. Believe quite a few holders are "arbitrage" financial types who will be willing to trade their shares and move on. Some may even be happy to take "paper" from One51 if they have already decided to use AUG as their vehicle for a float in the UK. One51 have considerable expertise/financial resources to attract a lot of positive interest. To have approached AUG as they now admit, suggests that they have a clear idea of the stragegy and value of their move. Word of their move may have leaked-out into the sector and that has motivated others to seek talks with AUG..they may include the huge Dutch name that has a JV with AUG and would know their management well. Will look to add if we fall back into low 90p levels as believe an agreed deal will materialise, influenced by the fact that other names are also interested. One51 however, are in the best position and looking at AUG future plans and confidence in their projected revenues/profits etc. AUG would certainly be seen as an excellent aquisition. There could also be some tax and other accounting issues which would benefit a tie-in by a foreign party...Dutch or Irish.dyor

[azalea] 27/8/2008 14:02

No significant buying.I think the share price is going to quieten down for a while as it could take sometime for an actual offer to arrive.

[lbo] 27/8/2008 11:15

battlebus the last price One51 paid for shares was £1.48 and have not bought since so according to takeover rules they would have to offer that price for the whole company. This rule is time dependent so maybe enough time has elapsed to allow them bid lower but we must remember that One51 still have to bid at a price which will convince the institutions to sell and scare away a higher bidder. If they bid too low and someone else then trumps them then they will have to sell out themselves.

Bid proves value of rubbish for Augean


Augean in takeover talks


One51 hoping to clean up with takeover of hazardous waste firm

[battlebus] 27/8/2008 09:10

Why offer 1.48 when the shareprice is just over a 1.00 and already sits at a premium of over 25% from the initial bid. To me 1.20 is max.

[cyberian] 27/8/2008 08:11

Worth remembering that the Euro has appreciated nearly 20% against the £pound over last year or so, therefore our Irish 27% holder is in a good position as the Euro is more likely to correct downwards later this year. The Euro economy has some problems even greater than here in the UK and their currency on fundamentals could weaken imho. Whatever...game on!!

[lbo] 26/8/2008 20:51

As I said earlier Philip Lynch is well known to take a profit if the price is right! But only if the price is right!

I suspect we may see a bid from One51 at £1.48p (the last price they bought shares) and then its up to the other interested parties to trump it by at least 20% to get One51 to sell its shares to them.

So perhaps that £2 per share offer that was mentioned is whats needed to get Mr Lynch to sell out! Otherwise I see One51 buying this.

Anyway well done to the regulars on here for keeping the faith and I hope a few of you bought some more shares sub 70p.

[cyberian] 26/8/2008 19:46

So One51 confirms that they have made an offer...with nearly 27% they may drive this forward quite quickly unless the "other" offers decide to declare their hand. All rather positive....

[praipus] 26/8/2008 17:33

Ecofin ECWC,ECWO & ECW own some Merwyn share and a lot of waste related energy interests so may see some upside there too.

[lbo] 26/8/2008 16:30

Can we expect another mark up in the morning after some bigger press coverage?

[azalea] 26/8/2008 14:51

The fact that a number of approaches have been made certainly indicates the potenital for a bidding war once an opening shot is declared.