Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[stockknobjockeyvanbookstino] 14/10/2018 09:50

Canaccord reckon that there could be 800,000 contained tonnes of cooper at grades of 0.88 - 1.67 available at San Antonio and San Dionisio, keep an eye on the drilling results !

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/10/2018 08:13

#Stockers..., now that XGC’s hand is potentially weaker after disposing of their off take rights, what’s their next move...? and what happened to their off takes..?

My money is still on Trafigura positioning themselves for a bid..., having other shareholders involved in a business and having to consult them to make collective decisions is a royal PITA... if you don't need them..

[millennial] 14/10/2018 08:08

Atalaya Mining Plc.
(“Atalaya̶1; and/or the “Company”;)
Recent press speculation

Atalaya Mining Plc. (AIM:ATYM, TSX:AYM) notes the recent press speculation relating to the Company.
As part of its ongoing responsibility to its stakeholders, the Board confirms that it is undertaking a
review to evaluate the Company’s strategic options. The review is ongoing and there is no guarantee
that any particular course of action will proceed.
The Company will update the market if appropriate and continues to execute on its current business
plan, which includes the expansion at Proyecto Riotinto and the development of Proyecto Touro.


Long at mo still

[stockknobjockeyvanbookstino] 14/10/2018 00:08

Wanderer, from H1 2018 Financials:

XGC was granted an offtake over 49.12% of life of mine reserves as per the NI 43-101 report issued in September 2016. Similarly, Orion was granted an offtake over 31.54% and Trafigura 19.34% respectively of life of mine reserves as per the same NI 43-101 report.

In November 2016, the Group was notified and consented the novation of the Orion offtake agreement as Orion reached an agreement with a third party to transfer the rights over the concentrates. Similarly, in December 2017, XGC notified to the Group the novation of the offtake agreements with a third party.

[spcecks] 14/10/2018 00:07

Rougepierre did you buy back any of the shares you sold lately.

[rich1e] 13/10/2018 22:20

rouge you say “ Meanwhile, Astor and Toure are going to need up to £150m in total” and “But then as others have said, why would Traf/Xiang/Orion/Liberty, who have a 70% armlock and could resist any bid, sell now”.

Maybe some of your questions are answering themselves. How many of the major shareholders came on board to run a mining company as opposed to putting up capitol to make money? Why tie yourselves up longer than necessary, take on more work, and dilute yourselves further to get to the same place financially? As an investor yourself who was happy with 260p you can appreciate that these guys may be happy with just rewards for the work that they've done to date, leaving a bit on the table for someone else. They can take the money today and invest it in Glencore, if needs be, that will give them divi's today rather than 3 years down the line.

[rich1e] 13/10/2018 21:31

With Canaccords target currently sitting at 315p I would say that we should be looking at that and a 40% premium for the future potential as minimum.

[rich1e] 13/10/2018 21:27

We know that someone has been buying heavily over the last couple of weeks, I think that the highest price paid was 264p. Was this one buyer? Do they know something? What we do know is that you don’t acquire a half million or so shares, without expecting a good return. In light of the fact that the company appears to be open to offers, you put the two together and I would expect the 260p mark to move from resistance to support very soon.

In a scenario where one of the major shareholders has shown an interest in acquiring the whole company, I would expect the situation to be brought to a conclusion very quickly, unless they want to risk paying a high price or losing out completely. Supply and demand and such, I suspect they’ll have ears to the ground and do what they have to do at the first sign of any interest.

[wanderer1210_0] 13/10/2018 21:24

I do remember Lango, I'm sticking with £3.70, which gives a Mcap of £500m, good luck, nice to see you again, let's hope Traf, buy us for £5 a share and send the cheque in the back of that taxi lol

[sharkboyo] 13/10/2018 21:19

12p x 30 is right for a current valuation, but as Elon Musk calculated, a 40% premium for an uninvited bid?

[langostino] 13/10/2018 20:09

wanderer - back in the day I told bookworm that Traf would buy the company for 12p. Then they messed it up with their spoiler back door entry which set back the investment rationale. 12p x 30 still sounds about right after the wasted years, and the buyer, if there is one, may well come as a surprise.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/10/2018 18:54

Trafigura 22.4% (with off take agreement)
XGC 22.4% (with NO off take agreement)
Liberty 14.3% (with no off take agreement)
Orion 13.7% (sold it's off take agreement)
Majedie 6.6% (with no off take agreement)

Looking through the companies presentations, somewhere between December 2017 and March 2018 XGC disposed of their off-take rights.. why would they do this..? they used to have 49% of the 2013 43-101 Copper..

From todays investor presentation, Trafigura are still holding 19.34% perhaps this points to who wants it most.., and positioning..?

But at what price would XGC give up their shares too..?

[rougepierre] 13/10/2018 18:51

So I asked myself, why would a company registered in Cyprus and quoted in London appoint Bank of Montreal as strategic advisor (apart from the fact that ATYM or AYM is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange - TSX)?

Two possible reasons:

First, 75% of the world's biggest mining companies are headquartered in Canada...:

hxxp://careerminer.infomine.com/the-top-10-mining-companies-in-canada/

So if it was a bid, the most likely buyer would be First Quantum with a mining operation in Southern Spain (Las Cruces)



But then as others have said, why would Traf/Xiang/Orion/Liberty, who have a 70% armlock and could resist any bid, sell now, just as Toure is going to get approval; just as Astor is going to be finalised and just as the expansion project has wings...doesn't make sense.

And Traf would be the most likely bidder anyhow, to consolidate their own Spanish mining interests...

Furthermore, it there was a bid approach the company would have to say "we have received an approach that might lead to a bid..."

Second reason:

A Canadian placing. Canadian mining investors are the most hungry in the world and there would surely be a relatively small discount (e.g. the recent 230p level?)

And surprise, surprise, BMO Capital Markets, one of the biggest such players, is a subsidiary of Bank of Montreal....

hxxps://www.bmocm.com/industries/#global-metals-and-mining

But then they also do bid defences ('white knight')...

Or maybe this is all a smokescreen...

Markets fall...

ATYM falls...

Copper not surging...

Astor ruling imminent...

Appoint a Canadian Bank to look at your options, fire up bid speculation and the share price, in advance of the Astor ruling...

Meanwhile, Astor and Toure are going to need up to £150m in total, which brings me back to the possibility of a Toronto placing at a small discount...

GLA and have a great weekend...

[wanderer1210_0] 13/10/2018 17:27

Welcome back Langostino, any thoughts on a buyout price?

[777mason] 13/10/2018 15:03

hxxps://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/aim-atym/atalaya-mining-shares/news/how-much-did-atalaya-mining-plcs-lonatym-ceo-pocket-last-year/

[robmcelf2] 13/10/2018 12:36

Looks like LME copper warehouse stocks now at 166k tons which is a 2 year low. COMEX also at low levels and we heard that Codelco has smelter problems at least until end of 2018. Surely copper can break above $2.88 and then onto $3 soon. That at least would be helpful in pushing Atalaya valuation up a bit in any possible sale...

[lander12] 13/10/2018 10:18

The rns quickly followed the press statements that ATYM have appointed the Bank of Montreal.
What we dont know is when we asked them to look at a potential sale, was it this week or several weeks ago?
May explain some of the recent large buys.
We could also be further along the process of finding any interested buyers etc

[langostino] 13/10/2018 10:15

Trafigura want the mine and to get rid of tiresome partners and pesky shareholders, turn it into a single operation with MATSA and be the copper kings of Huelva. If they can't do that they want to sell the lot and move their resources elsewhere. That is the option for which they paid 9p a share all those years ago and now is the time to end the waiting. I have bought back in at slightly less than Traf paid so as not to miss the fun.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/10/2018 10:03

Difficult to put a price on the time element isn't it.. but our 3 big II's have been on board for how long..? and most bought in at higher prices than we are today..

Given that, fair value is way north of where we are today, + time value + growth potential value + potential USD4-5/lb Copper value, roll that all together, and it's got to be double today's share price hasn't it..?

[come on] 13/10/2018 10:02

The rns referred to speculation in the press, had anyone seen any speculation relating to a sale?I first paid about 20p for these in excess of 10 yrs ago, watched go to about 30p, then fall over the years 3 or 4p, they are still less than 9p old money. Derisked and producing now, the fair value is way in excess of this, will we see fair value. Would be good to have a bid on the table to see where they value us now. Who knows

[rich1e] 13/10/2018 09:49

I suppose that it depends on how much value that the big shareholders put on the risk that they’ve taken and the time and money that they’ve invested. They are that after all, investors not mining operators, and will want a reward for the risk that they took. How much value a large miner puts on a working mining company with loads of potential to grow further without having to take all those risks themselves.
I think we’ll find out very shortly.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/10/2018 09:29

An interesting day that was...! but the closing share price isn't anywhere near fair value is it for a bid, or including any upside for Touro either, it's only just back to where we were.. got to be 4-500p somewhere hasn't it.. :o)

I can't see why the BOD would want to accept a bid, we are building a much bigger operation than we have now, as we head towards a 100KT a year combined resource..

But, that said, Traf/XGC/Liberty will all have a price point where they can't say no...!

Looking forward to next week ..

[sithuk] 13/10/2018 09:21

I can't quite figure out the sale now either. ATYM has a mixed and balanced shareholder register of major players, so forced liquidation isn't likely to be the driver. ATYM has a circa one year of profit payment to Astor to make at some point, timing to be decided by a court ruling. Board expects ruling by end of year. No issue there. No other debt, and a strong cash generating asset.The copper investment space is hotting up, but I'd have thought the take overs would be cash rich companies taking out those with assets but little income. If anything it should be ATYM making the opportunistic approaches, not the other way around. Has anyone ever seen a similar RNS referencing a board undertaking a strategic review when it isn't under any financial pressure? Then again, what's the harm in inviting offers. They can always turn them down.Strange that van hasn't popped in with an update.

[sharkboyo] 13/10/2018 08:29

I originally bought at 270p (9p then) years before any mining started, and although I’ve averaged down to 200p since, it is inconceivable to me that any sale should be for less than 500p. The Astor games being played are keeping the current share price artificially low. If they ever needed to come to the Market for more cash, you can bet your boots Astor would be sorted and the share price would be at least 350p.