Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[gardenboy] 15/8/2003 18:41

dayjob,

AML own 78% of capacity this year - so 860m is right - (100% from next year)

cyberian,

chart is good - was no. 1 in Investtech top 50 last night!

[cyberian] 15/8/2003 10:43

Purely on a chart signal we have broken the critical 138.5p level and that bodes well. The count-back, current, and future growth appears encouraging with the news release this morning.

[paddyfool] 15/8/2003 09:00

dayjob,
You are right the liklehood it will be the upper end. 2002 is earning well accross the piece in the market. I think there is some way togo good luck.

[dayjob] 15/8/2003 08:52

gardenboy, re. that afx - i'm not sure it's right that Amlin's share is 860m, i thought plc owned 60% of the 1.1bn - the difference between 860m and 1.1bn being qqs. can anyone confirm?

Figures for 2002 u/w year in the range 12 - 17%. I'm sure they are understating this at the moment. If it's 17% (i reckon 20% would be nearer) then 136m, of which plc have 72.3% = £98.33m, less (say) 25% expenses = £73.75m. That's more than double the current consensus forecast for 31/12/03, or 19p per share or p/e 7.36. Tempted to top up.

[gardenboy] 15/8/2003 07:45

LONDON (AFX) - Amlin PLC said it is is continuing to experience good trading
conditions in all of its principal lines of business.
Syndicate 2001 has 1.1 bln stg of capacity in the current year, of which 860
mln is Amlin's share.
The syndicate's gross written premium (net of brokerage) was 634 mln in the
six months to June 30 2003, up 22 pct over 2002.
Referring to forecasts it said the second quarter forecasts for the 2001 and
2002 years of account are unchanged from those made after the first quarter.
It added the 2001 year of account continues to develop in line with
expectations.
The 2002 year of account has benefited from low loss incidence to date.
Underlying improvements in the quarter have been partially offset by exchange
rate movements.
A substantial amount of business remains on risk for this year, but Amlin
expects the forecast to improve if a normal level of loss development is
experienced for the remainder of the year.
Charles Philipps stated "2003 continues to develop well and business written
in previous years remains in line with our expectations. We are increasingly
confident about the financial outcome for this year and look forward with
optimism."

[cyberian] 13/8/2003 09:41

I maybe wrong but re-casting trades on Monday from ADVFN believe the MM's could be short well over 1 million shares (even 1.5 million). However, they may have built-up a holding in anticipation of demand if presentation given by the company was well received. Still, whatever, one should see a convincing run up and through the 1H results on 3/9.....even a bit of a re-rating?

[rambutan2] 12/8/2003 12:53

cyberian, hsx always seems to valued more highly than other ilvs. fairer comparison is bre and wun. aml seems to fall somewhere between those 2 looking at current pe projections. but all too cheap and almost certain to beat forecasts.

[cyberian] 12/8/2003 11:33

Paddyfool....thanks for that input which was very clear and makes sense. Understand that company gave a presentation yesterday to brokers etc. and hence the activity in the shares. Apparently the presentation was very positive, business is growing, solid base, and team very professional.

[paddyfool] 12/8/2003 10:51

Cyberian,
There is next to no chance of major players consolidating in this sector. The reason being that the major players all have similar portfolios of business and their constraint on being bigger is the amount of capital they have. Therefore if they are looking to step up in size they will go the markets for capital. The big players will acquire small niche players from time to time but they will not make a large impact. In fact the way things are done in this market is that you aquire the underwriting team and not the company if you are interested in moving into a line of business, its so much easier and cheaper than having to take the gamble that there is nothing lurking in the books which will bite you later (dont mention due diligence and all that as it almost always fails to unearth these issues). I hope that helps. imho dyor etc.

[cyberian] 12/8/2003 10:26

I am looking for something in excess of 20% return on shareholders funds seeing that the company's capacity has increased considerably since last year. I wonder if it makes any sense for the sector to consolidate. The pause in yesterdays excitement was to be expected so as long as we hold this higher level as a firm base prospects are encouraging. Any ideas as to what caused the sudden level of trading/interest yesterday?

[paddyfool] 12/8/2003 09:24

If this ILV is doing even half decently then its certain that the results will suprise. Anyone holding an ILV not 'suprising' at half year will need to look to their management and underwriting team and ask why? This sector is experiencing its best trading conditiond in living memory and yet is no where near its historic valuations.

[qas27] 12/8/2003 01:33

Amlin 137 up 5

'Good value, and may surprise with results Sept 4' - Bridgewell 'overweight'

Do you think the results will be any good, and if so what are your realistic price targets?

[gardenboy] 11/8/2003 15:08

looks like a breakout at last!

[cyberian] 11/8/2003 15:04

Good rise so far today...again I need to do ore research to see whether correct to compare AMLIN with HISCOX (HSX) as the latter has a market cap of £438 million against that of £535 million for AML. The market commentators suggest that AML is gaining from excellent market conditions and this is endorsed by the board who appear quite confident. An interesting situation and again AML looks a gainer in being a fairly solid and safe investment, with good growth potential for at least the next 2/3 years. DYOR

[cyberian] 10/8/2003 11:56

Just had a look at yesterday's FT and observed that Hiscox sells on a PE of 22 which is more than twice that of AML. They are very similar I believe, although AML has about double the underwriting capacity/leverage of HSX. Begs the question as to whether that is why we are starting to see a more favourable rise in AML shares. With figures expected to be even better than last year and set for first week of next month the price looks set to improve. DYOR

[cyberian] 07/8/2003 18:30

See the company returned over 20% earnings on shareholders funds last year and the board indicated that their market sector looks very favourable over next 2/3 years. Even better returns can be expected with results due early next month....so the increase in trades on the buy side were modestly encouraging.

[jarsav] 01/8/2003 09:23

looks like the result date now is fixed we should see a good run up, lost s of quick buys will begin to happen. This morning has been good.

[rambutan2] 08/7/2003 10:55

wish i had a billion to invest!

Jayne Thorburn appointed Chief Investment Officer
Amlin plc, the leading Lloyd's insurer has appointed Jayne Thorburn as Chief Investment Officer. Ms Thorburn will be responsible for guiding investment strategy, asset allocation, and fund manager performance. She is also a member of Amlin's recently formed Investment Advisory Panel which includes Ian Harwood, Global Head of Economics and Strategy, Dresdner Kleinwort
Wasserstein, Richard Hughes, Equity Fund Manager, M&G Investment Management,
and Richard Lewy, former Managing Director, Scudder, Stevens & Clark. Amlin
has over £1 billion under management in its investment portfolios.
Ms Thorburn was formerly Head of International Equities for Halifax Fund
Management Limited.
Richard Hextall, Finance Director, commenting on the appointment said:
'Asset allocation and investment return are extremely important constituents
of our overall result. Not only do we have the benefits of the high calibre
advice from our Panel, we are very pleased to have appointed Jayne as our
first CIO.'

[gardenboy] 25/6/2003 23:28

The share is taking it's time testing this level around 133

[gardenboy] 22/6/2003 23:45

20 Jun 2003 14:43 BST

TEXT-Moody's revises Amlin Plc rating outlook

(The following statement was released by the ratings agency)
MOODY'S ASSIGNS POSITIVE OUTLOOK TO THE INSURANCE FINANCIAL STRENGTH RATING OF LLOYD'S SYNDICATE 2001

Performance rating on review for possible upgrade

NEW YORK, June 20 - - Moody's Investors Service has changed the outlook on the A2 insurance financial strength rating of Amlin syndicate 2001 to positive from stable. Moody's stated that the change to the rating outlook reflects the improving financial fundamentals of syndicate 2001. It also reflects the significant improvement in the financial profile of the syndicate's main capital backer, Amlin plc (Amlin), whose earnings are driven by the performance of syndicate 2001. The rating agency elaborated that syndicate 2001, whose underlying performance has been improving from 1999, has significantly outperformed the Lloyd's market for the 2000 year of account, and is forecast to do so again for 2001. Despite a large World Trade Center (WTC) loss of 14% of capacity, the syndicate is currently forecasting a small profit of 1% for the 2001 year of account. Furthermore, within a very favourable trading environment, syndicate 2001 has meaningfully increased its capacity for both the 2002 and 2003 years of account. With a diverse book of business and good management and underwriting skills, Moody's believes that the outlook for the syndicate's earnings in the short-to-medium term is positive. The syndicate is currently forecasting a profit of 15% on capacity for the 2002 year of account. With regard to capital, Moody's said that syndicate 2001 is currently 85% backed by its owner, Amlin, which intends to provide 100% of the syndicate's capacity from 2004. Aside from benefiting from the above-average performance to-date of syndicate 2001, Amlin's net tangible asset position has significantly improved from GBP122m at the end of 2001 to GBP250m at the end of 2002. Amlin recorded a profit before tax for 2002 of GBP55m in marked contrast to the GBP82m loss recorded for 2001. In line with its expectations for syndicate 2001, Moody's anticipates that, assuming a normal loss experience, Amlin's financial profile will continue to improve. The rating agency further said that, in its opinion, the syndicate's biggest reserving challenge is in respect of WTC. Whilst stating that the current loss estimates (around $595m gross, $140m net of reinsurance recoveries) were material, particularly on a gross basis, in relation to the syndicate's earnings and capital base, Moody's nevertheless noted several considerations that continue to help reduce its concerns. These include the relative stability in the loss estimates and the quality of the syndicate's reinsurance programme which should continue to significantly mitigate credit-related losses. Furthermore, the syndicate has collected or has collateral with regard to around 55% of the $455m of recoverables estimated to be due, the outstanding amount representing around a manageable 30% of the syndicate's capital or 12% of 2003 capacity. Moody's also said that, in its opinion, the minimum security offered by the Lloyd's market improved materially in 2002. This factor is viewed as positive for syndicate 2001, given that all of Amlin's underwriting continues to be based in the Lloyd's market, and the syndicate's open years of account are supported by some third party capital. Going forward, Moody's said that it will continue to closely monitor the performance and WTC loss estimates of syndicate 2001, the financial profile of Amlin as well as the Lloyd's operating environment. In light of the above, Moody's has placed the B+ Above Average performance rating of syndicate 2001 under review for possible upgrade reflecting the rating agency's belief that the syndicate's future cross-cycle performance may be more consistent with the A- rating category. Syndicate 2001 is the largest syndicate in the Lloyd's of London market, with capacity and estimated gross premium of around GBP1 billion for 2003.

[gardenboy] 16/6/2003 08:14

nirvs,

yes - but I pick up your positions from your postings on the PBB Traders thread!
Seriously though, you did save me a few bob when you went short awhile back, as I was able to sell out at 128. I've managed to trade this stock successfully a couple of times since then. I'm still long and the stock is at a 52 week high now.

Buys this morning at 136

[nirvs] 07/6/2003 08:35

gardenboy - we always seem to take positions at the same time. I went long these today at the first tick up on the bid.

AML will hopefully push thru 134p this time...

[gardenboy] 06/6/2003 21:13

Another push towards resistance at 132

[gardenboy] 17/5/2003 00:23

now trying to test old high