Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[broadwood] 11/10/2006 15:04

raf - I too own the shares - since around the 220p level.

It's 'charters' like yourself, and their earnestness, I found 'larfable' - as if you could possibly tell the future from what happened in the past. It is statistically proven - many studies, many times,- that chartists just about achieve what would be expected - i.e. be correct around 50% of the time. Pretty much the same as tossing a coin. But their enthusiasm persists - and their fibbinachis,wave charts, general mumbo jumbo remains undiminished.The two opposing opinions, yours and Evil's, illustrate perfectly my point! And just look at the previous twenty or so posts on here to illustrate the point further. All 'predictions'pretty much universally wrong.

I'm afraid its become an industry for people trying to pedal rubbish- and charge for it.This thread it seems is peopled by devotees, each reading the same historic information to produce x numbers of different outcomes. Get back to basics - it ain't rocket science.

From a fundamental point of view, and with the absence of serious hurricanes this year, there may still be a little more to go for - but they are approaching a fair valuation. The hurricanes absence is double edged, meaning rates will be flatter next year.

[rafieh] 10/10/2006 20:12

broadwood,
I am not sure what you find "larfable" here. I bought a shedload today on the basis of the strong buying signal I saw on the chart. You may disagree, but only time will tell who will have the last "larf".

[broadwood] 10/10/2006 15:41

You've gotta larf. Or sympathise.

[rafieh] 10/10/2006 12:14

evil,
On the contrary I am thinking of buying, as I can see a large reverse head and shoulder, with the neck line just been broken upwards. Can you see it too?

[evilwebby] 08/9/2006 11:40

The chart has got "short me" written all over it. MACD giving a sell signal, with clear resistance just below the previous year high..

[evilwebby] 08/9/2006 10:44

FB, plenty on my watchlist. Most of stuff I have been in/out of this year already:

My shopping list would include the following, and at what prices I would consider attractive (would of course need fine-tuning as and when):

BP. >550p
RBS >1700p
BARC >610p
LLOY >500p... maybe
VOD >100p
PFG >600p
CHU >60p (recently sold half my holding)
BMY >300p-ish
JKX >250p
EEN >180p

I am avoiding AIM stocks for the time being - the total lack of AIM bounce is a sign that we could well already be in a bear market imho where speculative and "risky" shares will be hit hardest. As I say, some of the above I have already been in/out of already this year and made good money on, so in a sense all I am looking to do is buy back cheaper than what I sold for, and it would not the end of the world if I miss the bottom (of course, I'll try my best to buy at the bottom).
I think the next couple of years will be very challenging for many companies - you don't want to be investing in companies that have no franchise power and high overheads, as these will be the ones that get squeezed most.

Any other ideas?

[farnesbarnes] 07/9/2006 18:32

We shall have towait and see.

Re: FTSE - I see today's 71 point drop as significant for 3 reasons.

1. Break of an uptrending wedge.

2. Gap down.

3. Inability to get to 6000.

On the basis that the May decline was 600 points, we are looking at a theoretical fall to 5400 over the next coupleof weeks.

Your 230 AML target is a bit too bearish for my liking, as there is a bit of resistance on the way down (255 - gap, 240 - lot of volume).

I think you'll know when AML next represents good value.

Incidentally, and I haven't looked into this in depth yet, but there looks to be a triangle forming on AML at the mo.

What else are you into/watching webby? For what it's worth, OML looks interesting, with results due 14 or 15 Sept.

But with the way the FTSE is, I'm currently on the fence.

ATB

[evilwebby] 07/9/2006 13:56

FB, if the FTSE revisits 5,500 I think it will. Sept/Oct/Nov notoriously period for stocks, doubly so this year with the bottom of the 4-year cycle due.
Am happy to wait and see, especially after their slightly disappoint FY results.

[farnesbarnes] 06/9/2006 18:13

Can't see this getting to 230 in the next few months evil.

[evilwebby] 04/9/2006 13:11

It's on my shopping list. Reckon I'll be able to get them for 230p some time in the next 3 months when all's said and done. Sept/Oct/Nov - can almost guarantee a sizeable market fall some time in those months.

[farnesbarnes] 01/9/2006 18:44

Shooting star yesterday, hanging man today. This must be the top of the latest rally.

Fib levels on the way down: 270; 260.5; 253; 245; 220. A bounce of any off these, and I'd have thought 260.5 (66%) would be the most obvious.

[evilwebby] 01/9/2006 12:25

Yes, it looks like it. It's impossible to sell at the top - the aim should be to catch the majority of the move and get a good profit, which has been accomplished. Risk/reward of going long now on any stocks is very unfavourable imo.

[farnesbarnes] 31/8/2006 15:55

Shooting star?

[farnesbarnes] 31/8/2006 09:00

Bloody hell. Didnt see AML doing this. Sold well too early.

Ho hum - in the meantime BRE is in the doldrums a bit and could do with the expected breakout.

[farnesbarnes] 25/8/2006 15:48

Technicially speaking, i couldn't cere less.

In reality, I do wonder. But surely the re-insurers would have learned from past experience and reduced their exposure, and I believe they have.

[liquidkid] 25/8/2006 15:41

Crude rose by more than $1 on Friday amid concerns that a tropical depression in the Caribbean could develop into the first major hurricane of the season.

...will be interesting to see if any one Co. of this sector starts getting the shakes...

[evilwebby] 25/8/2006 13:26

Yep, I'm out totally now, too. Got 269.53p on my last sale. Can't say it hasn't had a decent bounce. I'm wary of buying anything over Sept/Oct and early November.. usually big market corrections tend to come in those months, and we are due the 4-year cyclical low then too. Risky days ahead imho.

I still hold CHU, however, and would buy back in here at 240p.

rgds all.

[farnesbarnes] 25/8/2006 10:05

Simple supply and demand. With an extra 5.5m shares on the market, the price should drift down.

253 is support.

You watching BRE at the mo kid? The ascneding triangle looks ripe for upside breakout soon. MACD is bullish too. The pressure is building...

[liquidkid] 25/8/2006 09:37

Yes, but what does it mean FB? I'm out for now - up too far too fast.

[evilwebby] 22/8/2006 22:28

I took the chance to sell half my holdings just before today's close. Will be back in on the next sell-off. 220p -> 270p in 2 months' isn't bad going. Short-term upside from here is limited imho.

[farnesbarnes] 22/8/2006 20:47

22/8 evening star? Advance block formation?

1. Latest rally on falling volume.
2. Long upper shadow 18/8.
3. Shortening white bodies = Advance Block?
4. 270 resistance.

Time for AML to catch it's breath me thinks...

edit - out of AML, into BRE like the kid says

[evilwebby] 22/8/2006 16:17

Going like a train today :)

[liquidkid] 18/8/2006 11:37

I'm in looking for 290 - I sometimes get the feeling that some analysts get their info from reading ADVFN boards ha ha.