Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[samansh] 09/9/2003 11:00

It is not likely that Amlin will show good performance in short term. It may do better in a long run.

[royal trader] 05/9/2003 16:25

re-test of new support at 145p. Monday will see aml move up.

[jarsav] 05/9/2003 16:16

I think this may tail off for a while now, may be worth getting into another lloyd Sydn. some looking post results at the end of Sept as well. take a look at AUW this looks set to fly up to results.

[dayjob] 05/9/2003 13:53

Paddyfool,

The sqr for 6th quarter 2002 has Amlin syn. number 2001 on a range of 12 - 17% on £800m stamp. i.e. £96m - £136m. nett of expenses

[paddyfool] 05/9/2003 13:35

I have just read the Times article and the followinis of interest:

'Dilip Shah, insurance analyst at Altium Capital, however, cautioned that the figures were significantly boosted by a lack of serious losses over the period. He said: “This is a great set of results. But the low level of loss incidence means that it would be unreasonable to take these results as a proxy for the full year. Losses are beyond their control.”

He pointed out that the combined ratio, an underwriter’s measure of profitability, stood at 83 per cent, down from more than 100 per cent a year earlier. The ratio is determined by business written in 2002 but earned in 2003.'

The bit which Dilip Shah misses is that the earnings pattern for a company like Amlin who have recently materially increased their capaicity means that a most of the increased premium remains unearned in the first half of the year and even if there is a reversion to a normal loss pattern (remember the rules have changed here too with risks having higher atttachement points than in the past so normal is hard to quantify but will in any case be less than the past) the liklehood is that the second half will earn well, probably not far short of the first half. What we will see in the coming days is the brokers changing their targets upwards as the detailed briefings take place. My guess is that full year will be around £120 million but could be as high as £145 million.

The weekend will make interesting reading and i expect that there will be a reasonable amount of positive noise on Amlin. imho dyor etc.

[quickmind] 04/9/2003 15:42

Just dipped my toe in (2000 at 15:38:44) and ready to top up on weakness. Better late than never!

[rambutan2] 04/9/2003 09:48

thats more like it. well done amlin.

[paddyfool] 04/9/2003 08:48

Once the brokers have been pitched to this will do very well. the results are great and by year end have the chance to improve. Most ILVs reporting in the next few weeks will tell similar stories...long may the sun shine.

[hamilkar] 04/9/2003 08:32

They are crazy - on those results and the old adage - never sell a rising share. They will regret their decision at the close today. H.

[ishwar] 04/9/2003 08:24

but why offload so soon...

[ishwar] 04/9/2003 08:21

??? started offloading....means it may slow the momentem for the timebeing.

[barnetpeter] 04/9/2003 08:16

On a PE of about 13; provided they make nothing at all in the rest of the year. Of course if they match this performance in the 2nd half ....

Look very cheap to me.

[gardenboy] 04/9/2003 07:40

Harvey Bowring - 75% !

[paddyfool] 04/9/2003 07:29

the results are stellar!

[paddyfool] 03/9/2003 13:30

Amlin moving along nicely, tomoorows results should not dissapoint.

[cyberian] 01/9/2003 10:44

Guess the RSA rights issue has effected the sector and certainly AML. However, the MM's appear to be keeping the offered high as one senses that the company has already flagged some good results. Thursday will see whether they are even better than expected and that the trend/forecast for next year and longer continues. Again the fall coincides late last week with rumour of the RSA rights and that has continued today.

[cyberian] 31/8/2003 01:39

Have just returned from a 10 day break, and so catching-up on the recent price movements. I think perhaps the sight of two major institutions selling down slightly may have caused some reaction...but that happens all the time and is not significant in the medium picture. Both remain substantial holders and not really a concern. However, we do need to get through the 137p level again to help move to higher ground...results due out Thurday but believe company has internal meetings earlier in the week so we may see some positive signs sooner. Anyway, must look for indication of future profile from management to determine whether a more favourable re-rating can be justified. I was about to add that the major fund managers should buy some insurance in these uncertain times... but they can see whether their portfolio has sufficient weighting in a sector which is at last showing some solid earnings growth. Also with AML one can see a much improved management and approach to their mix of cover.

[ursus] 30/8/2003 00:52

i was just about to buy until i read that piece of tea-leafery.

[royal trader] 30/8/2003 00:23

hello all,

the reason for the current drop is that we have encountered resistance @ 145p set in 1998. The fact that the stock was also overbought resulted in the current fall in price.

However dont expect the rsi to go back to very oversold positions. The results are out on the 4th of September and more importantly there is support at 134p

Imo, good buy at current levels and there will more than likely be some great leaps in price towards results day.

[hamilkar] 28/8/2003 19:58

Samansh - My feelings exactly. I attribute it to the market sentiment rather than this individual share. Current broker forecasts show a 30.40% rise in EPS for this year ending Dec 2003 followed by a 32.14% rise in EPS for the year ending Dec 2004. There are not too many about in the FTSE 250 presently with those forecasts. You should also note the recent upbeat statement issued on 15th August. The recent breakout (see my note of 21st August) is a classic and IMO we are about to see a test of that breakout. When it turns I think it will turn quickly so those not already in should set alerts on this share and buy on the bounce. If you can't watch it then if you can get it for 135 or thereabouts it is a strong buy. Certainly a buy before the interims on the 4th.

[samansh] 28/8/2003 15:46

Even when Amlin has been tipped by number of brokers and its fair price value has been estimated somewhere between 165-170, I don't understand why the stock is moving down. People should be buying this stock ahead of company's interim results on 4-Sep-2003.

[hamilkar] 21/8/2003 13:22

As mentioned by Cyberian and Gardenboy the chart is looking very strong. The breakout on 15.08.03 through a resistance line going back to 15.01.03 was a classic gap up accompanied by heavy volume. This is one of the most reliable type of breakout to higher ground. My calculation is that this means a rise to around 162. Hopefully those who have read my recent comments on Broadcastle, WSP and Dyson Group will take note and now look more closely at AMLIN.