Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 21/2/2022 22:54

You mean these BB's are not the Samaritans ?

[disc0dave45] 21/2/2022 22:14

Have you ever thought about a career with the Samaritans?

[fenners66] 21/2/2022 21:56

Infrastructure bill is dead in the water in my opinion.
The DEMS are too busy grandstanding their own individual positions , not seeing the bigger picture , that is that having both houses and the presidency still gets nothing done , there is no point in them being there and such will lose the next elections...

[disc0dave45] 21/2/2022 21:11

Thanks for info Mr b.This is on a PE of 19x, for FY23 16x......IMO it's decent value.I note that the federal budget deadline has now been extended to March 11th (from 18th Feb), hopefully at some point Biden will get his way!. Just have to deal with Putin's willy waving first, lol.

[bracke] 21/2/2022 15:16

Thanks for your reply fenners.

I agree that AHT remains a business that will succeed in the medium/longer term.

There are two aspects to consider:

1 What is likely to be the low SP? Difficult to assess whilst the Ukraine situation continues and whether Russia invades and what the sanctions and retaliations may be.

2 Notwithstanding 'Ukraine'. What is fair value, something we have posted about previously.

From a chart perspective there is s/r at 4600 but not very strong. Stronger support at 4250 but better s/r at 3700-3800.

[fenners66] 21/2/2022 14:02

AHT resilience and AHT share price are 2 different things.
However I do believe that investing in the resilient business will succeed in the long run , as it has for the last 20 years or so.

So in current share price terms - who knows?
It's supply and demand - which is why there is merit in the technicals.

But if results continue to show growth in PBT and dividends (quicker rises here please) and debt reduction or new business acquisition the share price will grow as well over time....

[bracke] 21/2/2022 13:07

Good day fenners

What do you consider to be a resilient SP?

[fenners66] 21/2/2022 09:57

Ukraine war looking even more likely it seems
Will damage European markets when sanctions are retaliated with gas switch off and energy price hikes.

However since the majority of AHT business is in USA and possibility that the $ will rise I think that should add
to AHT resilience

[trt] 21/2/2022 09:47

If we drop below £45 could well see £40.

[bracke] 20/2/2022 12:28

Good day disc0

An opening gap down on Friday, close below 4800 and high volume.

The market has the 'jitters' courtesy of Mr Putin...he is naughty isn't he.

A move back above 4800 would help to steady the share price as it's a previous s/r zone. If it fails to do so it is difficult to see where the next support zone is other than a fair distance down. The fast rise over the past year did not lay down s/r zones on which the share price could fall back and hold.

[disc0dave45] 18/2/2022 21:26

Thanks for that Mr bracke.

[bracke] 18/2/2022 12:04

Good day disc0

The 'line' is being held at 4800 but the trend is down (lower lows and lower highs).

A higher high and higher low are required to suggest the share price has turned. In the meantime the best to hope for is a basing at 4800 and a levelling of the SMA 20.

[disc0dave45] 17/2/2022 22:33

Thanks Mr brackeWas going to ask if you could remember the last time it occurred....and you've kindly obliged. So the dreaded pandemic and market crash was the last time, so one has to ask - was a deadly virus, that had no vaccine (at the time), culminating in a pandemic, on a par with single digit inflation?, me thinks not, time to hire the mutt out again :)

[bracke] 17/2/2022 18:29

The 'Cross' occurred today.

The last time it did so was March 2020 and made little difference. The time before that was November 2018 and did make a difference. It appears that if the Cross occurs early in the down turn it has some reliability but if after a large fall not much. Therefore it is likely to be a 'damp squib'...........unless Mr Putin decides he would like a holiday in Ukraine.

[perfido] 17/2/2022 18:11

A disappointing day, but take heart mon braves:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Ashtead Group: The company is well-poised to deliver strong results driven by its diverse end markets and products, lower debt levels, and efforts to strengthen its market position. Improved construction markets will bolster results. Initiatives to optimize cash flow, reduce capital expenditure and operating costs are likely to contribute to growth.

Backed by a good quality fleet and a strong financial position, the company is well-positioned to navigate through turbulent times. It continues to invest in a digital transformation program that will enhance customer experience. It has a strong pipeline of strategic acquisition opportunities to supplement its organic growth plan. Its shares have appreciated 22.9% in a year’s time.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2022 earnings for this London, U.K. based company that engages in construction, industrial, and general equipment rental business has been revised upward by 2.5% in the past 90 days. The estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 36.5%. ASHTY currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
(source: yahoo finance)

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Edit: AHT 3Q results are due 08/03/22 ..
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[bracke] 16/2/2022 18:23

The share price is on the verge of a 'Death Cross' (SMA50 about to drop below SMA200).

It will be interesting to see the result.

[casket1] 14/2/2022 17:17

Back up to £55 b4 it hits £45........

[trt] 14/2/2022 08:16

£45 here we come

[davemccarthy] 12/2/2022 15:25

I cannot see that day traders are causing this much of a downturn. Is it an institutional investor taking profit?

With AHT still using buy back this makes no sense.

[perfido] 12/2/2022 11:33

DD

Thanks for your comments, all is going to plan, but I believe serendipity has played a part.

I now need to take a time-out from posting and give others a chance, we haven’t heard much on the TA front recently :-)
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[fenners66] 11/2/2022 22:41

disco - I can't see Biden getting anywhere with his infrastructure bill now.
They have both houses + the presidency and the dems still cannot get it done.
But now with higher interest rates set for this year, higher than expected, its makes
it even more difficult for them to contemplate adding to the borrowing.

[disc0dave45] 11/2/2022 21:38

No problem Perfido. Patience is always required! :)Congrats on your management of risk.....especially if your alternative provides greater return, otherwise doh lol.

[perfido] 11/2/2022 19:28

Hi DD,

Thanks for this info.

I am sure AHT will recover eventually, but I fear patience will be required given the current 'systematic' wider market risks, e.g. inflation, interest rates, world economic recovery, Putin, China, Boris sitting on the nucleear trigger by accident etc. :-)

[perfido] 11/2/2022 19:25

Hi crookes

Unfortunately the AHT price fell a further 157p today, making your loss compared to my November sale price £15.15 per share.

Keep smiling!

Edit: Last time you raised the subject a number of posters shared their approach to managing risk. Might I suggest it would be well worth while reading their posts again, and possibly developing your own risk management plan ( - no advice intended)
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