Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 06/1/2019 15:44

Thanks bracke, makes more sense to me now.

[ianwwwhite] 06/1/2019 15:44

Good afternoon bracke,

Thanks for your response to my earlier posting.

Just to clarify my views, I think there is a place both for brokers opinions (particularly downgrades) and TA over the short term and in the absence of other 'force majeure' which impact markets. Both contribute 'pieces of the jigsaw' and assist us to form a view of the overall picture.

Take heart, and do keep posting :-)

[bracke] 06/1/2019 15:12

Disco

When I made the purchase in October the US market had retraced it was not until December that the market went into reversal.

I was looking for a rise to £21.50 and support at £19. The rise did not occur but there was support at £19 but it did not hold.

With hindsight it was a premature purchase.

I have considered averaging down but the 1600-1700 channel has previously been a strong range and may be so again. If we are moving into a bear market 1600 may not continue to support.

Your questions are fair ones. No offence is taken.

[discodave4] 06/1/2019 14:16

Just read "a premature purchase".........Still confused!.

[discodave4] 06/1/2019 14:13

Hi bracke,Thanks for feedback just a bit confused by your comments, if from a TA perspective and your view that we are at the end of the cycle you think £20 is unlikely, then why go long at £20?.No offence intended.DD

[bracke] 06/1/2019 14:02

Good day uppompeii

"He went long term for sure! :-)"
==================================

But not that long!

[bracke] 06/1/2019 14:01

Good day Disco

"But didn’t you (or mater) go long at £20 a couple of months ago?."
=====================================================================

Yes I did buy for Mater at £20.....a premature purchase.

“I think it will do well to get back to £20.” is based on TA. There are a number of S/R zones to overcome to get to £20. The £20 is not based on my purchase but on basic TA.

[uppompeii] 05/1/2019 10:16

He went long term for sure! :-)

[discodave4] 05/1/2019 03:02

Hello Ian.Thanks.

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 23:12

Hi fennersIt was Fox News

[fenners66] 04/1/2019 23:06

DiscoDave4
4 Jan '19 - 17:58 - 56250 of 56254

Kudlow “no recession in sight”.


I was going to add the same - I guess we have been watching the same program on Bloomberg....

[bracke] 04/1/2019 18:32

Time will tell Disco.

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 18:14

When is a bull not a bull?"While this bull market is in the record books for durability, it's hardly the most powerful."

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 17:58

Kudlow "no recession in sight".

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 17:55

The longest bull market was?Forecasts for the rental markets are for continued growth, not a recession. US Jobs market data today beat expectations and no signs of the "end of the cycle".

[uppompeii] 04/1/2019 17:46

Clearly your input has made it above average.

[bracke] 04/1/2019 17:42

Since 1926 the average US bull market lasted 9.1 years and returned 480%.
The average bear market lasted 1.4 years with a loss of 41%

The current bull market has lasted 10 years.

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 17:07

And rental growth forecasts for Canada:"This year, revenue is expected to reach US$5.35 billion, followed by a growth rate of 4.1 per cent in 2019, five per cent in 2020 and 4.7 per cent in 2021. The increase is attributed to economic growth and rising oil prices." HTTPS://www.equipmentjournal.com/construction-news/growth-canadian-equipment-rental/DD

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 17:02

Doesn't seem to suggest end of the cycle IMO: HTTPS://cpnonline.co.uk/news/european-rental-association-comments-on-the-era-market-report-2018/ HTTPS://www.ukconstructionmedia.co.uk/news/uk-plant-hire-market-forecast-grow/ HTTPS://www.statista.com/statistics/248725/us-equipment-rental-market-size/DD

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 16:25

Good day bracke,Are we reaching the end of the cycle?, not too sure about that, Canada will see next phase of growth for AHT IMO.......but I know fa.Personally I think we will see £25, forever the optimist.....time will tell, you can buy me a pint if we hit £25 within this calendar year.All the best anyway.

[bracke] 04/1/2019 16:02

Good day Disco

Yes I know it was a broker forecast not yours. I take little notice of broker forecasts. If they gave a time frame fair enough but they never do that. If £25 is achieved in 6 months or 6 years they can claim their forecast was correct.

AHT is a cyclical share and we are approaching the end of the cycle. I therefore doubt if £25 will be achieved in the short or medium term. I think it will do well to get back to £20.

Viewing the chart I note it is nudging up towards 1700 which is the first s/r zone. If it can break up the next is 1780. I appreciate in the past it has risen by large amounts but the climate has changed and will be very pleasantly surprised if it repeats such increases....so will Mater.

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 14:05

Hi bracke,Perhaps I should clarify. It was a broker forecast not mine.That said a price of £25 is not unachievable by the time finals in June are issued, this has regularly moved by c 50% over such a time frame, which at today's price would be around the £25 mark.There are, and always will be caveats though, will the Tango man get his funding?, what will the B impact be?, blah blah blah, so on balance whilst £25 by finals could be achieved if all the ducks are lined up, i would have to err on the balance of probabilities and say it's unlikely though. All I will say is that IMO it will be a lot more than it is now and I have fair value of £27............what do you think?.