Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 18:14

When is a bull not a bull?"While this bull market is in the record books for durability, it's hardly the most powerful."

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 17:58

Kudlow "no recession in sight".

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 17:55

The longest bull market was?Forecasts for the rental markets are for continued growth, not a recession. US Jobs market data today beat expectations and no signs of the "end of the cycle".

[uppompeii] 04/1/2019 17:46

Clearly your input has made it above average.

[bracke] 04/1/2019 17:42

Since 1926 the average US bull market lasted 9.1 years and returned 480%.
The average bear market lasted 1.4 years with a loss of 41%

The current bull market has lasted 10 years.

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 17:07

And rental growth forecasts for Canada:"This year, revenue is expected to reach US$5.35 billion, followed by a growth rate of 4.1 per cent in 2019, five per cent in 2020 and 4.7 per cent in 2021. The increase is attributed to economic growth and rising oil prices." HTTPS://www.equipmentjournal.com/construction-news/growth-canadian-equipment-rental/DD

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 17:02

Doesn't seem to suggest end of the cycle IMO: HTTPS://cpnonline.co.uk/news/european-rental-association-comments-on-the-era-market-report-2018/ HTTPS://www.ukconstructionmedia.co.uk/news/uk-plant-hire-market-forecast-grow/ HTTPS://www.statista.com/statistics/248725/us-equipment-rental-market-size/DD

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 16:25

Good day bracke,Are we reaching the end of the cycle?, not too sure about that, Canada will see next phase of growth for AHT IMO.......but I know fa.Personally I think we will see £25, forever the optimist.....time will tell, you can buy me a pint if we hit £25 within this calendar year.All the best anyway.

[bracke] 04/1/2019 16:02

Good day Disco

Yes I know it was a broker forecast not yours. I take little notice of broker forecasts. If they gave a time frame fair enough but they never do that. If £25 is achieved in 6 months or 6 years they can claim their forecast was correct.

AHT is a cyclical share and we are approaching the end of the cycle. I therefore doubt if £25 will be achieved in the short or medium term. I think it will do well to get back to £20.

Viewing the chart I note it is nudging up towards 1700 which is the first s/r zone. If it can break up the next is 1780. I appreciate in the past it has risen by large amounts but the climate has changed and will be very pleasantly surprised if it repeats such increases....so will Mater.

[discodave4] 04/1/2019 14:05

Hi bracke,Perhaps I should clarify. It was a broker forecast not mine.That said a price of £25 is not unachievable by the time finals in June are issued, this has regularly moved by c 50% over such a time frame, which at today's price would be around the £25 mark.There are, and always will be caveats though, will the Tango man get his funding?, what will the B impact be?, blah blah blah, so on balance whilst £25 by finals could be achieved if all the ducks are lined up, i would have to err on the balance of probabilities and say it's unlikely though. All I will say is that IMO it will be a lot more than it is now and I have fair value of £27............what do you think?.

[fenners66] 03/1/2019 23:00

Rescuer - they have already just about committed to a £Bln share buy back.

You may of course be correct with the acquisition theory - but I suspect there is more than enough need for headroom on cash with the spend on the buyback.

[rescuer] 03/1/2019 22:11

Hope you all had a great Festive break and are well.

Looking at todays news, I was a bit perplexed.

If it was for Capex then fair enough, but the fleet age is relatively young.

I wouldn't be surprised to see an acquisition.

Dow's been hit again tonight, off another 660 pts, Hat's on time in the US.

Of course AHT's exposure to the US will hit the share price for a while, but it'll recover and kick on again.

GLA

Healthy and Prosperous New Year to you all.

[discodave4] 03/1/2019 18:06

IMO FY end eps 180p, £25 is only a PE of 14 so not too demanding.What's your thoughts?

[bracke] 03/1/2019 15:16

Good day fenners


Extra facility required thus "enabling us to take advantage of prevailing market conditions"......such as share buyback.

'Guaranteed reduction of 25 basis points'....provided the borrowing comes from the low end of the pricing grid.

Fear not fenners £25 share price to look forward to. A 52% increase at today's share price I can't understand why everyone isn't rushing to buy them.

[bracke] 03/1/2019 14:43

Good day Disco

And you believe that will be achieved? If so when?

[fenners66] 03/1/2019 14:43

Of course I read the refinancing announced this morning and thought ....

So why do we need to extend the size of the facility ? - Because of the buy back.
What did it cost to extend ? 0 I guess we will find out when we read this year's "Exceptional Costs" ... exceptional as if ... we have this Every year !!

Of course they say it is a 25 basis point reduction (which would be good) but from 150 to a range of 125-175 ?

That is Not a guarantee of a reduction to me (?)

[discodave4] 03/1/2019 13:22

Peel Hunt reiterates Buy, target £25.

[bracke] 03/1/2019 13:15

Good day fenners

I understand! The red spot marks the spot where the price currently is...who would have thought it. It must be part of the new digital age.

[bracke] 02/1/2019 15:42

fenners

If they are that dim or such risk takers nothing is likely to stop them, least a red spot.

[fenners66] 02/1/2019 14:38

To quote your post to help... "Are we considered so dim" .....

[bracke] 02/1/2019 12:46

Good day fenners

You've lost me with that post. How will a red spot prevent people from gambling on shares such as PET?

[fenners66] 02/1/2019 11:53

To be fair that spot will appear on charts such as PET , where some people gamble good money , so I guess they have a point.....

[hatfullofsky] 02/1/2019 08:18

Not such a happy start at the moment. Trend continues