Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 20/7/2018 15:28

Good day ian

"Seems to me that there is still a gap at around 2260 earlier in July that remains unfilled."
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Give it time but you need to get fenners to stop posting about 2962. He'll every man and his dog rushing to buy and it will never fall to your desired top up level.

I note it's back to 2300 again...anyone for 2200?

[discodave4] 20/7/2018 14:31

The Donald is controlling the markets at the moment by the looks of it!.

[fenners66] 20/7/2018 14:10

They could have used a target price of 2962 though !

Given my calcs. on the price URI are using for their latest acquisition that target has some substance (!)

[fenners66] 20/7/2018 14:08

Thanks SMCNI

[smcni1968] 20/7/2018 13:14

Ashtead (Buy, TP: 2800p) UNITED RENTALS Q2 Results - Conference call feedback· Key points: 1) Strength of demand – Robust, and indicators point to a durable cycle, and has led to higher capex spend. Industry remains strong, infrastructure spend is good and market remains disciplined. Another indicator is the strength of demand for second hand equipment, which remains strong. Management indicated that the pricing of equipment has increased c.7% QoQ. Commentary on Canada was very positive (growth rates of 10-15%), which is a relatively new area for Ashtead c.60 depots, and we believe offers significant growth potential for them. 2) Costs – some concerns about a margin squeeze in general rental. Yes, there are some costs that have risen during the period such as fuel, freight and labour, but these are partly controllable. United Rentals have been slow to pass them on to customers, and have been using too many third party services (freight and repair and maintenance) rather than using in-house resources, so this can, and will be rebalanced. 3) FY Guidance Raised – FY18E Revenue increased to $7.5-7.7bn (previously $7.3-7.6bn), Adjusted EBITDA $3.675-3.775bn ($3.6-$3.75bn). Gross capex $1.9-2.0bn ($1.8-1.9bn), Net capex $1.2-$1.35bn ($1.25-1.35bn). Management were keen to stress on the call that this did not include the recent acquisition (there appeared to be some confusion) and the increase was a sign of confidence and improving trends. 4) M&A – Despite three large deals in 2017 and another large deal in 2018, management remain keen on more M&A (alongside its share repurchase programme), particularly in Speciality rental where the last couple of deals have been focused. The deal pipeline remains robust. 5) Overall – Another strong quarter for URI, and we believe that the cost issue is a point that has been used as a sell-off for Ashtead. Ashtead's management has openly discussed the challenges of the labour market, and investment in infrastructure to support the growth of the business, so we do not believe these are new issues. The shares trade on a calendar 2019E of 14x and we would look to buy on weakness.

[ianwwwhite] 20/7/2018 09:04

Interesting to overlay URI and AHT price charts over the last year:



After a pronounced divergence starting around 11 months ago, the share prices have steadily converged again, but it seems that URI is currently still in a downtrend, whilst AHT is trending upwards.

Perhaps we shouldn't give too much weight to URI's influence, although it performance does give some indication as to the health of the equipment rental market in the States.

[fenners66] 20/7/2018 01:04

URI did close up 1.1% despite the US falling ...

[fenners66] 20/7/2018 01:00

Re URI

Kneeland continued, "Everything we see internally and externally points to a durable cycle and continued industry discipline in managing fleet growth. Given this backdrop, we’ve raised our 2018 guidance for total revenue, adjusted EBITDA and capex. We remain focused on executing a balanced strategy of growth and returns to maximize long-term value."

They have announced a further acquisition at $715m in cash for $295m annual revenue due early 3rd qtr. expected to add approximately $140 million of revenue and $40 million of adjusted EBITDA to full-year 2018 results.

So that is a run rate of $84m ebitda.

Which puts that business on a multiple of 8.5x Ebitda.

Our Ebitda is £1733m so at that multiple we would be valued at £14751m !

Which is 26% higher than where we are now. So that implies a share price of 2962......

Ok there are many other details to consider ....

[smcni1968] 19/7/2018 21:16

I understand the disappointment with URI was that margins weren't as high as hoped for

[ianwwwhite] 19/7/2018 18:58

Hi bracke,

Re post 55486

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From a well known brokers summary this evening:

US-focused equipment rental firm Ashtead was lower on the back of the latest trading update from US rival United Rentals overnight, which seemed to disappoint the market.
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This may well have encouraged some profit taking, and is consistent with my earlier post 55484

[ianwwwhite] 19/7/2018 18:31

Interesting day indeed!

Seems to me that there is still a gap at around 2260 earlier in July that remains unfilled.

It would be nice to see this revisited, creating an opportunity to top up before AHT again launches skywards on it's celestial journey..

As for LTHs taking profits, bracke, that's what we do. :-)

(No advice intended)

[bracke] 19/7/2018 16:17

Todays gap now filled.

£/$ rising off the LP.

[kilgallp] 19/7/2018 15:14

Thanks Ian, as you say every little helps. And it was only a little!

[bracke] 19/7/2018 14:20

Fair bit of action this morning.

The drop on open due to profit taking by so called long term holders tut, tut.

It filled yesterdays gap and then some. £/$ still dropping so share price should rise which it has.

Some blatant profiteering going on by dropping and rising within the 100 point range. I do hope none of you who read this thread are engaged in such underhand tactics.

[ianwwwhite] 19/7/2018 11:22

kilgallp

Congratulations on your successful trade, it all helps.. :-)

[ianwwwhite] 19/7/2018 11:05

I think the clue is in yesterdays URI price action:

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United Rentals (URI), the biggest equipment rental company, late Wednesday topped earnings and revenue estimates for a second straight quarter.

But United Rentals stock fell in after-hours action.(IW: !!!!)
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Stock: United Rentals stock fell 2.6% in early after-hours action. Shares had closed up 2.1% at 155.34 on the stock market today. Equipment maker Caterpillar (CAT) rose 1.6%, and John Deere (DE) added 0.9%.

This year, United Rentals stock has been whipsawing, and is currently trading underneath its 50- and 200-day lines. Its relative strength line, which tracks a stock's performance vs. the S&P 500 index, is also down for the year.

The tale is mixed when it comes to fundamentals. The IBD Composite Rating is a mediocre 65, though it boasts an impressive EPS Rating of 96. It currently sits in sixth place in the Commercial Services-Leasing Industry Group
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Full article:

[fenners66] 19/7/2018 10:54

Was there a broker view released this morning or something ?

If URI beat estimates surely that is not a negative shock?

I will have a read and see if there were any negatives in the words....

[2flatpack] 19/7/2018 10:36

bracke
congratulations on tempting these closet traders to COME OUT.
Cheers

[kilgallp] 19/7/2018 10:22

Bracke, I fully understand Ian's comments. I consider myself to be a LTH, I've held my main holding for quite some years. But it doesn't mean I don't have an occasional flutter. I recently bought a few at 2272, sold them yesterday at 2400. Only small profit but better than a poke in the eye with a pointed stick.

[ianwwwhite] 19/7/2018 10:20

Thanks 2fp..

[2flatpack] 19/7/2018 09:22

ian
congratulations.
perfect timing.
Cheers

[floridamassive] 19/7/2018 08:49

These will bounce back by COB, market didn’t understand the UR results, they look all good to me:

Estimates: United Rentals earnings are expected to rocket 48% to $3.50 a share as sales power up 13% to $1.8 billion. That's according to Zacks Investment Research.

Results: United Rentals earnings shot up to $3.85 a share. Revenue rose 19% to $1.89 billion.

Outlook: Excluding a pending takeover, United Rentals raised the midpoint of its full-year revenue target to $7.6 billion from $7.45 billion. Its EBITDA target midpoint edged up to $3.725 billion from $3.675 billion.

Lebrum Capital seem to agree, who gave this a BUY rating this AM. Great buy in my book at the current ridiculously low price :). Especially with these going ex divi on 16th.

[fenners66] 19/7/2018 08:17

Guess not what our market was looking for then

[ianwwwhite] 19/7/2018 05:55

(duplicate post removed)

[ianwwwhite] 19/7/2018 05:55

Good spot, thanks SMCNI1968