Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[lairddavid] 31/5/2018 23:39

Hi Rescuer, good to see you are still around. Hope all is well. Been a long time since our alternative shareholder meeting...cant remember where it was. (Granton ?)
Met some nice people, Hatto,, JONNYM, Filmmaker etc.

[rescuer] 31/5/2018 22:21

been a long time people - interesting times stateside, the new import tax will impact worldwide, Ashtead have a huge exposure to the US mkt and this is going to leave them hugely well positioned to monopolise on European opportunities medium and long term.

Suddenly interested again - kick on AHT - good luck

g

[2flatpack] 31/5/2018 14:48

If it goes above the previous high I will re think,If it fails to make a new high I will open another short.
cheers

[bracke] 31/5/2018 13:14

Answer to the options in the above post.

It's the first part of 1 (gap filled). Now for the second part.

[bracke] 29/5/2018 11:14

GAPS

Yes I know booorrrrinng but never the less worth watching.

On Friday the share price rose to fill the gap following the high on Tuesday 22nd. The gap was filled bar four points but to all intends and purposes it may be considered a fill. After filling the gap price dropped to end the day with a doji.

To-day the share price has opened with....another gap which has 'jumped' the Thursday/Friday gap. All very gappy.

Where does that place the share price which is holding on to 2300? Options:

1 Fill the gap up to Friday's close and either continue up or fall back.

2 Ignore the upside gap and continue down.

If it drops lower I have first likely support at 2257. If that fails then 2186.

'IF' it is to be a 250 point drop which AHT does (please check if you doubt) that would take it to 2130 at which coincidentally the ML is located.

[bracke] 25/5/2018 14:33

Good day uppompeii

Yes indeed it was.

You will remember the cause of my near undoing was my arch nemesis....AHT......and here we are again. This time I consider my chances are better and I do not intend to be going over the Reichenbach Falls again, it's long drop, I got wet and its a long swim back to land.

[uppompeii] 25/5/2018 14:06

Oh how tenuous that Elite Guru status was a few short years ago....

[bracke] 25/5/2018 13:31

optomistic

I commiserate over your potential AHT gain not to be. I would have been in a similar situation but no good reminiscing over what might have been.

Carney.......likes to meddle in politics too much for my liking (he is giving a speech this afternoon at 2.20). Perhaps he should be told to keep quiet and just get on with the job as his predecessors did.

As you know us Elite Gurus employ very scientific systems and methods of analysis which I am not permitted to divulge. I can say that I have consulted the runes with a dose of cat entrails thrown in for good measure and 530 'appeared'. It may retrace back up before its arrival but there is a fair probability of 530.

Ref Post 55273

Looks like it's going to be 2372.

[optomistic] 25/5/2018 12:34

bracke I reckon you will have to talk with M Carney about the £/$.
530 would be a bit harsh a treatment for BP...but small potatoes after the potential £80K that has gone adrift with AHT for me :-/

[optomistic] 25/5/2018 10:57

Good morning bracke...if your shorting has this effect on a share would you pop over to BP and do your magic there please ;-)

[bracke] 25/5/2018 10:48

Three gaps to fill. Which one first?

1 Up to 2372.

2 Down to 2296

3 To-days at 2324.

[bracke] 24/5/2018 10:18

Highish volume yesterday bears win but bulls hold the 2300 line.

[bracke] 23/5/2018 14:23

Good day Palwing

Thank you.

I was thinking about a 50% pullback to 2125 but that may be overly optimistic. Perhaps an initial drop to 2250, then a retrace up, then a drop to 2125.

What do you think?

We await President Trump's next move on N Korea Talks, China Trade, EU Tariffs and Iran Sanctions. I think that's it. If his people know his next moves they could make a fortune.

[palwing13] 23/5/2018 12:44

Good luck Bracke....but not too much. ?

[bracke] 23/5/2018 11:18

Additional short trade taken.

1st @ 2225.83.
2nd @ 2310.85.

Average is 2268.34.

[bracke] 23/5/2018 10:36

There was probably going to be a gap drop the problem was forecasting it which was nigh on impossible to do. My intention/hope is to trade once a swing low is a good probability.

The share price has dropped to the rising ML where it is currently supported. Will support hold or will it fill the gap at 2296, or will it attempt to fill to-days opening gap.

I will be watching the price action closely for guidance.

[ianwwwhite] 23/5/2018 08:41

URI closed 4% down, (-7 @ 166.78) last night.

A similar drop for AHT might indicate a fall to around 2260ish.

Looks like we may have some way to go if we follow URI

[nick_dunton] 23/5/2018 08:25

Looks like Ashstead taking an early hammering on opening..

[lairddavid] 22/5/2018 21:07

United Rentals taking a hammering tonight....increase your short tomorrw bracke??

[3rd eye] 22/5/2018 14:43

Had a few bob in AHT Ashtead as per yesterdays notes/post. Forward P/E to 2019 of just over 16 looks cheap to me.

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2017 (A) 2018 (E) 2019 (E)

EBITDA £1,622.10m £1,757.72m £1,908.84m
EBIT £987.00m £m £m
Dividend Yield 0.99% 1.34% 1.46%
Dividend Cover 5.31x 4.09x 4.24x
PER 19.04x 18.30x 16.11x
PEG 1.32f 4.53f 1.19f
Net Asset Value PS 198.99p p p

[ianwwwhite] 22/5/2018 12:36

Good morning bracke, fenners,

Not sure whether we are 'there' yet, but I've just sold 10% of my diminishing number of shares at £23.68, to take some risk off the table.

Could be tempted to buy back if there is a significant correction in due course.

My faith in AHT remains undiminished, still a 'long' at heart with a residual holding..

dyor, if anyone follows my example, they have only themselves to blame!