Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[mattcookson] 07/6/2018 12:23

Come 19th June, final results announcement date, these will be trading well over £25. Remember the Q3 results?? “For the first nine months of the year, rental revenue increased a healthy 21% and operating profit climbed 22%. Free cash flow jumped from £68m to £179m, and earnings per share on an underlying basis rose an impressive 30% to 102.4p.” SOLID BUY!!

[mattcookson] 07/6/2018 12:22

This is a smashing buy! Shorters run for the hills hahahaha!! Wait till AHT announces stellar results on the 19th June, even your houses will be sold. Do yourself a favour, call your brokers and close them shorts ASAP before you go bankrupt hahahaha!!

[ianwwwhite] 07/6/2018 12:00

Thanks bracke, much appreciated

[bracke] 07/6/2018 11:31

A gap is a gap. It means that prices in a gap are not tradeable until the gap fills.

Having broken through 2400 it has dropped back to test support at that level.
It has also broken above the top line of the ascending channel (Post 55301) but has dropped back down to rest on it.

I have opened a third short at 2406 and am averaged at 2314.

[ianwwwhite] 07/6/2018 10:04

Lol!

Is it possible that the delayed start caused demand to be concentrated, and caused a bit of a spike? If so I don't think that counts, but no doubt our Elite Guru will put us right...

[fenners66] 07/6/2018 09:44

Does that count as a gap then - since we were not quoted ?

[ianwwwhite] 07/6/2018 08:40

Started at a gallop +28 at 24.17, previous intra-day highs surpassed!!

[ianwwwhite] 07/6/2018 08:34

LSE opening was delayed, now open at 9.00am

[discodave4] 06/6/2018 19:13

Thanks bracke.

[lebiche] 06/6/2018 17:02

What a stock this is. Wish I'd followed the management at 130p. But it will be a fabulous SHORT once the business cycle peaks.

And I'll be ready this time.

[bracke] 06/6/2018 13:49

Disco

"(even though the laws of probability & stats appear not to always apply to AHT!)."
===================================================================================

So I've noticed!.......However the chart below shows the rising channel that the share price is forging. You will notice that when it reaches or comes close to the upper boundary it reacts and drops. No guarantee it will not break to the upside but the probability is for a drop if only to the dashed black line.

AHT DAILY

[discodave4] 06/6/2018 13:37

Ian / BrackeIan ditto, buy and hold until the story changes. However, do want to get some into my ISA so contemplating selling some before results and hopefully buying back cheaper and get some freebies......nice dilemma to have but doesn't make actioning it any easier!.Bracke - Thanks for your thoughts from a TA perspective, helps my decision (even though the laws of probability & stats appear not to always apply to AHT!).DD

[bracke] 06/6/2018 11:34

I wouldn't mind "occasional"!!

[ianwwwhite] 06/6/2018 11:32

Good day bracke,

Thanks for the update and good to see that everything is under control!

I imagine that depending on the quality of the results we may see a bit of a shakeout following the announcement, which might provide an opportunity for those of a 'shorting' bent.

Good luck with your positions, we 'longs' don't begrudge you an occasional winning trade!

[bracke] 06/6/2018 10:41

Good day ian and Disco

Shorts still held and underwater....nothing new there is there.

So what to do. The current loss is not a bother so in no hurry to close.

I view the chart and there are a number of features which suggest it is worth holding the shorts but I am mindful that AHT laughs in the face of negative features. It does appear intent on reaching 2400 soon.

The Plan

Continue to hold the shorts and perhaps add following a spike/rise following the results.

This froggie is hopeful of avoiding another hot bath!

[ianwwwhite] 05/6/2018 22:55

DD

I wouldn't be surprised if we get the usual bounce and dip around the results, but my philosophy is to hold fast, 'do nothing', provided the results are good.

Indeed having sold 10% of my holding on 22 May at 2368p (post 55262) to reduce risk, I would be happy to buy them back again if there is a significant pullback notwithstanding good results, and the overbought position should hopefully resolve itself in the fullness of time....

[discodave4] 05/6/2018 22:14

Thanks Ian, yes i knew you were referring to our couple of brave shorters but thought it may provide some useful info for them......or not!.Let's hope the results don't result (no pun intended) in the normal dip, although I'm beginning to fear it will if this keeps going up as in overbought territory now.DD

[ianwwwhite] 05/6/2018 22:00

Hi DD

Interesting, thanks. I was thinking specifically of a couple of posters on this board who had declared positions recently.

I agree shorting AHT is definitely not for the faint hearted, or me!

[discodave4] 05/6/2018 19:59

The last 13 months shorts positions (from Euroclear) :-May 2017 5.3%June 2017 5.05%July 2017 4.63%August 2017 4.12%September 2017 4.47%October 2017 5.22%November 2017 6.03%December 2017 6.75%January 2018 6.12%February 2018 5.48%March 2018 5.76%April 2018 5.33%May 2018 4.44%Don't know what to conclude from this!, possibly nothing, or close shorts after year end and open again before H1 results?. IMO there are better less risky short positions to hold rather than AHT where you are more likely than not to get your fingers burnt!.DD

[ianwwwhite] 05/6/2018 18:26

In the meantime, AHT is looking quite resilient and flirting with intra-day all-time highs.

I wonder how our shorters are doing, hopefully not in too deep, and keeping their heads above water!

[ianwwwhite] 05/6/2018 18:18

RNS confirms results to be announced on 19th June, two weeks to go.

In the meantime I calculate the current position for the share buyback is that 9,282,891 shares are held in Treasury at an average cost of £20.63p, and total spend of £191.46m.

By extrapolation, it looks like this will be around 10 million shares purchased by results day, and spend of £200m out of the original £500m target,(or possibly £1b target subject to confirmation).

.

[mattcookson] 04/6/2018 22:29

Come 19th June, final results announcement date, these will be trading well over £25. Remember the Q3 results?? “For the first nine months of the year, rental revenue increased a healthy 21% and operating profit climbed 22%. Free cash flow jumped from £68m to £179m, and earnings per share on an underlying basis rose an impressive 30% to 102.4p.” SOLID BUY!!

[lairddavid] 04/6/2018 15:31

Thats old age for you IBROX.