Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 16/5/2018 10:22

The usual spike up at opening but easing back as I type.

Ref Post 55233

MACD 15 MINUTE - The faster moving average is continuing down.

MACD 4 HOUR - The faster moving average is now directly on top of the slower moving average. Now waiting to see if it continues down or bounces off.

[bracke] 15/5/2018 16:42

I am paying close attention to the MACD on the 15 minute and 4 hour charts.
Why you ask?

They are currently the best indicators (for me) of likely price action.

MACD 15 MINUTE - The faster moving average has just crossed down below the slower moving average which suggests that momentum is easing if only on the shorter timeframe.

MACD 4 HOUR - Currently the fast moving average is just above the slow moving average. It may 'kiss' and bounce off. If it does it is a warning that the share price may move higher. If it breaks through it improves the probability of a successful trade.


Exciting isn't it!

[bracke] 15/5/2018 14:53

SP back to test the high.

[bracke] 14/5/2018 11:25

fenners

CI...better late than never.

[bracke] 14/5/2018 11:23

Good day ian

"I will watch and learn!"
========================

So will I!!

[ianwwwhite] 13/5/2018 10:05

Thanks bracke, looks like a plan. I will watch and learn!

[fenners66] 12/5/2018 22:41

You have of course got the curse of a Chronic Investor buy rec this week on your side....

[bracke] 12/5/2018 13:16

Hopefully 2flat and I will have made a profit and covered the shorts before 19 June.

I am expecting the share price to drop relatively quickly. If it refuses to do so it likely indicates my short was premature and time to exit.

[ianwwwhite] 11/5/2018 18:16

Upcoming quarter 4 and year-end results due 19 June 2018 may provide some further price support in due course?

I'm hoping for the usual exceedingly good results, an increase in free cash flow, and enhanced dividend... albeit some of this may already be in the share price, and we mustn't be too greedy! :-)

[discodave4] 11/5/2018 18:03

bracke & 2flat,Good luck.......you pair of %#@£& lol.RSI overbought so be interesting to see how it goes.DD

[ianwwwhite] 11/5/2018 17:31

2flatpack and bracke

I note that you have both opened shorts today, and I do admire your candour in posting this.

I wish you both luck, but would also ask that you let us know when they are closed, and the result. That would help me, and other long only holders understand more clearly the opportunity costs of our own approach?

Thanks,

IWW

[bracke] 11/5/2018 15:18

Opened short.

[bracke] 11/5/2018 12:57

OH! 2flat how could you!! You may be a little early but it could pay off well.


I was just about to post on that subject when I saw your shocking revelation.

To-days candle on the chart below is currently showing a large upper wick. IF AND I REPEAT IF the day closes with the same size wick it maybe indicating that a short (for those who do such terrible things) is worth considering.

I draw your attention to the candles that caused the drawing of the solid and dashed magenta lines. Look at the upper wicks.

Although I have drawn a red declining PF it is not confirmed.

AHT DAILY

[2flatpack] 11/5/2018 12:46

Opened small short and sold all my holdings.
Cheers

[discodave4] 11/5/2018 10:43

Thanks Ian, of course I will lol.Have held for 6 years.......a relative short termer compared to some. Top sliced and bought on dips a couple of times but buy and hold pays.....ride the cycle!.DD

[ianwwwhite] 11/5/2018 10:13

DD

Up 475%!!

Well done, I trust that come Christmas you will spare a thought for the other impoverished investors on this thread, and spread a little largesse?

[discodave4] 10/5/2018 20:40

Many thanks Ian and Fenners, much appreciated.I do have a stocks and shares ISA but have not as yet put £20k in for this FY. In retrospect I should have drip fed my AHT profits, less than the CGT limit, each year into my ISA and rebought the shares. Have banked some profit from here but current holding is up 475% so should have thought about doing something annually - oh well, nice problem (avoiding CGT) to be having, many thanks AHT!.DD

[ianwwwhite] 10/5/2018 18:03

Re Ashtead share repurchases ('buybacks')

Interesting to note that daily AHT share repurchases have reduced from an initial 110,000 shares per day wef 15/12/17, down through 75,000, 65,000, 42,950, to today's purchase of only 24,371 shares.

Financially I calculate that £168.14 mill has been spent to date out of the initial projected spend of 500 million. 8,272,821 shares are now held in Treasury, with a nominal value of £184.65 mill at today's closing price.

Hovever, if future share repurchases are geared to the prevailing share price, something will have to give!

[bracke] 10/5/2018 17:47

SMCN

True but that was the situation sometime prior to the seven day rise. Plus does the £/$ weakness justify such an increase.

[smcni1968] 10/5/2018 17:11

I think sterling's weakness vs the US dollar might be a factor?

[bracke] 10/5/2018 16:04

The price action of the seven daily candles since 30 April has been nearly vertical.

I tend to be wary of such moves unless they are accompanied by company news that would justify such a move ie. better than expected earnings, contract win, etc. As far as I am aware there has been no such news. I am also aware that this is AHT and nothing should surprise.

My thought is........how big will the retrace be when it occurs. As a minimum I would expect it to drop back to test the previous high at 2185 but that is just the thought of sell, grabit and run merchant rather than a buy and hold investor.

I

[ianwwwhite] 10/5/2018 09:58

DD

To add to our earlier posts, I believe there is no minimum holding period once the shares are in the ISA.

Most importantly, any subsequent sale proceeds that are retained in the ISA are available for reinvestment, and over time a substantial 'tax free' diversified portfolio can be built up. :-)

[fenners66] 10/5/2018 09:10

Disco - the £20,000 worth of shares that you sell outside of an ISA will still be subject to any CGT if you make a profit.
Each year we get a tax free CGT allowance this year £11,700 - so any gains above this would be taxed (or offset by other losses).
Then you can transfer funds to an ISA and re-buy , but cannot breach ISA investment rules ....

I could have sold and transferred into an ISA many years ago - that would have ruled out CGT altogether from that point and in some respects was a planning error.
However had I done that I would have been able to sell and realise a profit without paying tax .... which may well have denied me the continuing gains over the last few years so.....

[discodave4] 10/5/2018 01:14

Sorry, meant to add:-And do I have to hold the shares in the ISA for a minimum period before selling?.DD