Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 15/1/2018 12:20

ian

No I didn't short it.

With a company that big and with numerous government contracts there was the possibility that 'strings would be pulled' with the banks in a debt for equity agreement.

[ianwwwhite] 15/1/2018 12:13

bracke

I can but agree.

Did you short the stock yourself? I can't believe that you let an opportunity like that slip through your hands?

[bracke] 15/1/2018 11:53

Good day ian

I have been following the Carillion Saga for some time. Fenners and a couple of others have been pointing out the dire state the company was in.

I have seen this scenario before. What is interesting is those who buy or continue to hold the shares. As far as I see it there are four groups.

1 The Chancers - They understand the situation but take a gamble that the problem will be resolved sufficiently to make some money. If they lose so be it.

2 Those in denial - There is a problem but it will be ok.

3 The Rampers - They know there is a problem but pretend that there isn't in an effort to get people to buy and make a quick buck.

4 Those who haven't got a clue and should not be buying shares.

It's all happened before and will all happen again.

[ianwwwhite] 15/1/2018 11:34

Good morning bracke

.... no just interested to understand a little more about costs/rewards/risk involved.

I see that fenners has now assumed the status of 'legendary seer' on the Carillion board, having forecast the carnage that is now happening. Well done, I for one will pay close attention to his forecasts in future!

[bracke] 15/1/2018 10:48

Thinking of moving to the Dark Side ian?

[ianwwwhite] 12/1/2018 20:13

(Post removed, my question re short trading resolved by investopedia research)

[bracke] 12/1/2018 17:10

All Time Closing High - 2105.

I didn't get round to shorting yesterday but there would have been 20 or so points available.

[ianwwwhite] 12/1/2018 09:27

davidcar7

Re post 54880, many thanks for sharing Geoff Drabble's interesting response to your letter.

Thanks also to Geoff for finding the time to explain the thinking behind the share buyback initiative, much appreciated.
.

[fenners66] 12/1/2018 08:41

The company’s fourth quarter and full year 2017 press release will be issued and available at unitedrentals.com after the market close on Wednesday, January 24, 2018.

[fenners66] 12/1/2018 01:14

URI closed around $179 !

[discodave4] 11/1/2018 19:22

Thanks for posting that davidcar7, very interesting, this made me smile "we also find ourselves highly cash generative".bracke - No wonder Mr Drabble didn't send you a Christmas card you naughty little shorter!.DD

[davidcar7] 11/1/2018 17:46

Before Christmas I said that I had written to Geoff Drabble to let him know that I personally would prefer the Company to have increased dividends and reduced borrowing rather than buy back shares. I promised to share any reply I received from him with you -I am delighted to have received a reply this week which was held up in the Christmas mail as it was dated 18th December! Although he has not directly answered my suggestion of higher dividends he has given his thoughts on the subject of buybacks. I quote as follows:
Our priorities remain fleet growth and small bolt on acquisitions as we gain market share and improve margins by leveraging the fixed cost in our now extensive depot platform. Clearly this is designed to enhance earnings per share and therefore the share price.
We also find ourselves highly cash generative and even after funding these plans, unless we make further investment, our net debt to Ebitda leverage would begin to fall well below our target range of 1.5 to 2.0 times. The big question I guess is, whether this is desirable or not?
Well this really depends on our outlook and where we are in the cycle. Currently, our outlook is very positive and we anticipate multiple years of moderate growth. Therefore, we are happy to operate within our longstanding range. It's my belief that by allocating £500m (which would otherwise only be used to delever) to reduce the share count and hence improve EPS, is a sensible approach. As it happens ,from a multiple perspective I do think we are undervalued and having the discipline to recognise this rather than potentially pay inflated multiples for large M&A is a sensible low risk approach to growing the share price. Also , as our cash flow is better understood, I do think there is a chance that we also get a re-rating - but who knows.
So will we spend £500m or £1bn? I don't know! We could spend £1bn but only if there is an absence of good organic growth opportunities and/or M&A. However be assured we will always be disciplined in our leverage, remaining within guidance and will constantly reassess what constitutes value.
I hope this helps. Of course, there is judgement involved but it is made with a clear understanding of the parameters in which we should operate and a focus on long term share price appreciation.
It may surprise you to hear that I was anticipating your letter. I do regularly read a range of share blogs to gauge reaction to what we do and suspect you may participate on AdVfn. If I am correct, thank you for your continued interest in Ashtead and I trust your other investments are as successful. Please pass on my best to all others involved. I don't agree with everything that's written, particularly recently, but it is of great interest and has been for over 10 years.
I appreciate the trouble Geoff has taken to reply to me and thank him for it.

[bracke] 11/1/2018 17:04

All Time Closing High - 2073.

[bracke] 11/1/2018 13:04

A leap up and not a false break!

Now what. a new high? Place your bets.

As I type the share price is just short of the ML which is at 2115.

I am tempted to short. Very naughty I know but you can't expect a leopard to change its spots.

[bracke] 10/1/2018 16:56

The share price closed at the top of the wedge so what's it to be tomorrow opening. A leap up or the drop back often seen.

Beware false breaks.

[discodave4] 09/1/2018 21:36

Missed this from yesterday:"Analysts at JP Morgan Cazenove revised their target price for Ashtead Group' s shares from 2,400p to 2,450p and reiterated their 'overweight' rating on the same, highlighting the 'rare' opportunity for the company, which was already a market leader in the US, to continue growing its market share in that North American market. Yes, share price gains in the wake of a "strong" set of second-quarter results had been offset by news that several members of the group's senior management team had decided to sell their shares, they conceded. However, the analysts said that as the dust had settled after that "surprising development", they had decided to revisit their investment thesis and model and their conviction was unchanged. Ashtead remained a "top pick", JP Morgan said, explaining that its potential for growth and cash flow dynamics were undervalued and pointing to 10 reasons why they believed consensus estimates were too low. The company's end markets had seen a significant recovery since the heavy downturns experienced in 2008-2009 and US non-residential construction was set to grow at a GDP-like rate. More importantly, rental penetration, which had increased from 20% to 55% across the construction sector between 2000 and 2016, was believed to still be on the up and would provide further tailwind for all rental equipment providers, the investment bank said. At last count, Ashtead was the second largest player in its segment within the US, sporting a market share of roughly 7%, the analysts estimated. "

[bracke] 09/1/2018 12:44

Since the 15/12/17 low the share price has been moving up within a rising wedge and is again close to the top line. Currently it needs to break and hold above 2052 to breakout for an attempt at the ML.

If it fails to breakout on this occasion a drop towards the lower line at 2014 is likely.

[discodave4] 08/1/2018 22:44

Shares outstanding: 498.68mFree float: 488.61mThus treasury is c 10m. To-date current buyback programme 660k shares, average price approx 1966 (only quick calcs so could be wrong).DD

[rescuer] 08/1/2018 21:22

healthy and prosperous new year to all the Ashteader's

well done all, the returns over the years have been outstanding.

Bracke - how many shares to AHT now hold in treasury and what it the average price - can't seem to find that info anywhere

thank you

g

[discodave4] 03/1/2018 19:29

Guess Barclays are still on holiday, have been since the 21st Dec, lazy gits!.Happy New YearDD

[fenners66] 03/1/2018 11:41

Cheers Bracke

[fenners66] 03/1/2018 11:16

Anyone know why we spiked up this morning?