Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[broadwood] 09/11/2015 21:42

I thought it was an excellent performance today in a rapidly falling market.

[bracke] 09/11/2015 16:49

A rise to fill the gap at 1035 then dropped down to fill to-days opening gap.

The volume is interesting.

Having tried to break to the upside and failed the chances are that it will now have a look at the downside.

[bracke] 06/11/2015 16:32

The share price steadied today. Now it needs to rise back into the wedge.

[topicel] 06/11/2015 16:26

Clearly the market isn't bothered with the payroll numbers vis a vis AHT. Steady as she goes then....

Topicel

[ianwwwhite] 06/11/2015 07:53

Thanks DD4, most interesting!

[discodave4] 05/11/2015 20:03

US non farm payroll figures tomorrow. See what Aunty Janet makes of them.We may rise back into bracke's wedge!.GLDD

[discodave4] 05/11/2015 19:14

brackeDitto Ian's previous post.DD

[bracke] 05/11/2015 17:05

It closed below 1024 and just below the lower wedge line.

A good DOW recovery this evening will assist in a rise back into the wedge tomorrow, otherwise it is likely to drop close to 1000.

[bracke] 05/11/2015 12:20

Thanks ian.

[ianwwwhite] 05/11/2015 11:55

bracke

Many thanks as always for explaining your views, I continue to watch with interest.

[bracke] 05/11/2015 11:19

Good day All

Having read the posts above I think I should state my position in order to avoid misunderstanding.

I have followed AHT for a number of years,others have followed longer. During that time I have come to expect the unexpected, it seems to delight in doing so.

The Current Situation

Yesterday I suggested 1024 as likely support. This morning it dropped below that level but quickly rose above it.

Price action has formed a rising wedge, this is easily seen on the 4 hour chart. With this pattern the share price normally breaks out approx 2/3 distance along the wedge with a higher probability that it will break to the downside rather than a break to the upside. A close outside of the wedge increases the probability that is the likely direction but false breaks do occur.

I know Topicel will think that 'I am having my cake and eating it' with my 'false break' comment but I am trying to cover the possibilities.

There are a number of facets to be considered when analysing price action I attempt in my posts to distill them to readable form without boring too much.

When I posted about a "good run" I did not mean that was it for the year. I don't know if it will rise further this year. Currently the chart suggests to me that there is more chance of downside before any more upside.

[ianwwwhite] 05/11/2015 09:34

Topicel

Good morning.

I wish you good luck with your Xmas strategy, timing will be everything!

Bracke's record is undoubtedly good and his assessments a very useful addition to any investment decisioning toolset, but I think you may have misread his current views. "he says we might have had our good run up this year" is not what I read.

No doubt he will elucidate in due course, but it may come down to a question of perspective.

I find the 'ripples, waves and tides' way of looking at day to day stock market fluctuations from "The Dow Theory" author, Robert Rhea suits my perspective.

[ianwwwhite] 05/11/2015 09:13

broadwood

I agree, and it's not like this rate rise has not been well signposted.

I suspect that the actual rise will be cautious and minimal, and insufficient to trigger a large scale rotation into other assets, once the froth has subsided.

[broadwood] 05/11/2015 08:56

Personally, I see a rate rise as a positive after the initial markdown.

It is a confirmation of recovery.

[topicel] 05/11/2015 08:35

I still hold for £11 optimistically but, as I mentioned before Christmas, err, sorry, Carpetbagging time calls and if needs must I'll dip out and come back later.

Bracke has a good track record here with his entrails and so as he says we might have had our good run up this year. Yellen has scared the buyers somewhat, hasn't she, too?

Topicel

[broadwood] 04/11/2015 19:30

Good post Ian. I had noticed the JCB story also. Ashford buys a lot from them but the market seems untroubled.

As for holding long term, I've been with the share from its under £2 days - never having seen the need to jump ship. The story seems as good now as ever.

[ianwwwhite] 04/11/2015 18:24

Starting to get a good feeling about AHT's prospects in the run up to Xmas, looks like the tide is with us, although I am sure there will still be some choppy water to navigate.

JCB's announcement today of a collapse in demand for their construction equipment is a little worrying, not least because of the laying off of the 290 shop-floor workers at this time of year, and follows Caterpillars announcement of 4-5000 job losses in Sept.

However, I understand that JCBs problems are largely attributed to a fall in demand in Russia, China and Brazil, and Caterpillars to challenging conditions in the mining and energy sectors.

Hopefully AHTs strong business model is still unaffected, and in the absence of other more compelling investment propositions I remain a long term holder, but would look to take some further profits above £12 if the opportunity presents itself.

Topicel, I'm surprised that you are considering an exit at 1063, after your many posts expressing strong conviction that £11 was imminent!

However to each his own, dyor!

[bracke] 04/11/2015 16:28

A retrace to-day but no complaints please you've had a good run up.

Ideally it will be supported at 1024 which was previous resistance. If 1024 fails to sup[port then 1010.

[bigman] 04/11/2015 07:14

one never loses money taking a profit, but in this case surely this is a long term investment.

[bracke] 03/11/2015 16:22

Topicel

"I'll be gone at £11 for sure, let's see, maybe even 1063"
-----------------------------------------------------------

Shame on you. Nothing but a carpetbagger.

[topicel] 03/11/2015 16:17

Have a heart Brackey...!

Why do you think I bought here if it wasn't partly to do with those dratted brokers? They always know what they're on about, don't they? ;)

Eleven squid will make my Christmas bright, as long as Santa Brings My Baby Back To Me...

Long since stopped being greedy and at £15 a point I'll be gone at £11 for sure, let's see, maybe even 1063, which was the figure I was struggling to recall earlier.

Must leave some for Broadwood old boy.

Topicel

[bracke] 03/11/2015 15:51

Two years of Topicel wanting his 'lb of flesh'!!

[broadwood] 03/11/2015 15:37

Maybe by 2018.

[bracke] 03/11/2015 15:35

You may settle for £12 but you know what Topicel is like, he will want the full £15.