Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 01/3/2024 17:33

Talk of this year being El-Ninio and the Caribbean being record temperature later in the year - will that mean a ferocious hurricane season?

[disc0dave46] 01/3/2024 16:48

Good day Mr bWouldnt disagree about JP wanting to see more data. The general consensus though is a cut in June.....we will see.As for AHT, they warned previously due to the impact on ops in the film industry due to the writers and actors strike. It may still be an issue, although I really hope it's not, but ADF reported yesterday in their FY23 finals the following in their outlook statement (an abstract below): "Following the end of the Strikes in November 2023, and the continued growth in demand for ADF's services as evidenced by the current order book, the Company expects the financial performance of H1-FY24 to be significantly ahead of the H2-FY23. Notwithstanding the end of the Strikes, the impact on the film and HETV industry has carried on into H1-FY24 with film and TV producers having to reorganise the schedules of all relevant parties (studios, cast, crew, ancillary services etc), which is proving challenging at short notice. This has meant there will be a one-off reduction in utilisation in H1-FY24 before returning to a full second half, more in line with pre-strike levels. The Board will provide further guidance in this regard on publication of its audited full year FY23 results.

[bracke] 01/3/2024 13:45

Another gap up this morning to fill the gap at 5712 but pressure eased at a previous major high 5802. Next gap to the upside is 5830.


AHT DAILY

[bracke] 29/2/2024 18:22

Good day disc0

I presume the FED will want to see another couple of months of data showing the trend is a continuing one prior to rate cuts. So maybe a cut in June?

When the data was released the share price continued with the rise and looked like it was going to fill the gap at 5712 but the pressure eased and it has 'rested' at 5680.

A note of caution. Viewing the RSI shows the share price moving into overbought territory. Look at previous occasions when the RSI reached this level and what then occurred to the share price

[disc0dave46] 29/2/2024 17:15

Good day Mr bSo US GDP growth down, Inflation down and jobless claims higher than forecast.....whilst only small moves at least all heading the right way.Thanks for your chart and all those lovely gaps to fill :)

[bracke] 29/2/2024 14:06

Great Expectations!

The share price has today broken up out of the 'Big Wedge' albeit with a gap.

No doubt shareholders will be hoping for results not just sufficient to keep the share price above the 'Big Wedge' but of proportion to take it up to fill the two gaps at 5712 and 5830. There are two more gaps at 6200 and 6238 but they may have to wait a little longer for filling.

Perish the idea of 'Buy the rumour, sell the result'

AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 29/2/2024 14:05

US inflation 2.4%, down from 2.6% in Dec. Will that please JP?

[disc0dave46] 29/2/2024 09:47

"and will contribute something worthwhile :-)"I very much doubt that!.Anyway, let's hope the US inflation data pleases the market......their latest GDP was a slight deceleration so fingers crossed.Have a good one, and be careful out there, some very strange people around :)

[perfido] 29/2/2024 09:39

No worries re our new poster Disco, hopefully he is now an AHT shareholder and will contribute something worthwhile :-)
.

[disc0dave46] 29/2/2024 07:57

Good morning Perfido Do agree also with TS, however, I'm not trying to time the market per se, simply buying when IMO the stock is sufficiently undervalued (which doesn't necessarily mean buying at the very bottom), then holding and see if it hits my target price, potentially to sell or keep holding, which again doesn't mean trying to sell at the top.Don't believe you can ever catch the bottom and the top.Thanks and hope your investments or trades are prosperous transactions.Ps sorry about my new stalker, the old stalker has managed to enlist the help of a very gullible believer - I really shouldn't bite :(

[perfido] 29/2/2024 06:35

Good morning Disco,

Suum cuique - to each his own :-)

I wish you good luck, although I tend to agree with Terry Smiths views on market timing

In the meantime I am looking forward to AHT’s trading update
(Q3 results) on the 5th next week…
.

[daveboy19] 28/2/2024 18:00

Trolltastic comms, Dave :)

[disc0dave46] 28/2/2024 15:28

Good day PerfidoOpportunities abound in the UK market atm. PE buying up businesses suggests there is significant value, guess they wouldn't be buying if they felt the market was destined to fall too much further.Tbh not over thinking (don't think I am! lol), just waiting and watching.....and dripping money back in when decent opportunities arise.I see DLG another one to possibly go to overseas buyers......and Hunt wants Shein to list here, talk about ESG hypocrisy!.Hope all is well.

[perfido] 27/2/2024 16:54

Guys

“A bear market reaching all time highs and entering a bull phase?” ... really?

Can't help feeling there is a danger of over thinking this

Can I recommend the old traditional approach as an alternative:

- assess opportunity, invest, hold, hold longer, hold longer still, and take profits

Works for me :-)
.

[disc0dave46] 27/2/2024 14:24

Good day Mr b"A bear market reaching all time highs and entering a bull phase?"The bear market has to end at some point, cutting interest rates this year surely must (IMVHO) provide the impetus for a period of bullishness in equities?.Have a good one......as we all wait for the US data this Thursday.

[bracke] 26/2/2024 13:50

Good day disc0

A bear market reaching all time highs and entering a bull phase?

If that is the situation and bearing in mind the PE ratios you quote we are in for a big rise. Prior to the take off to the land of milk and honey (for some) a retrace/pullback would be 'the done thing'; 10% would not be excessive.

Now that the Nvidia dust is settling attention will be turning to the inflation data this week. The US market is a fickle entity it will be interesting to see its reaction to the data.

I saw an article today which I thought interesting from a TA perspective. I will be monitoring the three indicators it mentions and the results.

[disc0dave46] 25/2/2024 20:08

Good day Mr bExcluding TSLA the magnificent seven don't actually look that expensive when you take on board the phenomenal compound growth rates and profitability over many years. They clearly skew the S&P500 given they represent over 30% of the weighting. From what I've looked at the S&P PE ratio peaked at in excess of 132x in 2009, The last ten year average is 32x and is currently about 23x. Is it too hot?, guess time will tell but personally I don't think so, especially as we surely must now be closer to the end of this bear market and entering a bull phase. As for the UK!, post 2016 it's faltered in comparison to other European indices, perhaps a post Brexit de-rating that may take years to normalise, or the substantial overseas M&A activity will in itself open folks eyes to the extraordinary value atm and drive values back up?. Interesting times.

[bracke] 23/2/2024 13:01

Good day disc0

The concern with the US market is that at some point it will break and how 'bloody' will it be. A lot is resting on AI. In the meantime we trade/invest what we see.

AHT share price reached the top on the big wedge AND exactly the last major high at 5562 where it was resisted and then retraced. If there is sufficient buying power it is likely to move back up towards 5562 and then gap or zoom through. If buyers are reluctant then the share price is likely to drop back to fill the gap at 5382 and look for support at the 5378 FIB.

AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 23/2/2024 11:00

Good day Mr bThey will probably just ignore JP and match on.....the complete opposite of the UK. PMI cooler and the market is pants, the US hotter and up she goes.

[bracke] 22/2/2024 14:20

Yesterday and today all eyes were on Nvidia, little attention was paid to the FOMC Minutes. 'Cold Water' was poured on the thought of an early rate reduction. Once the Nvidia situation calms down will the market ignore the FED and continue with more buying?

[palwing32] 22/2/2024 12:54

Thanks Bracke, appreciated. Will the share price stay within the wedge or break through?...History suggests the former, although you mentioned it could break either way before getting to the end. Oh, to have a crystal ball. Thanks again and regards.

[bracke] 22/2/2024 11:33

Good day palwing

Not yet at the top of the big wedge on my chart, you may have yours drawn differently. It needs to get to 5550 to reach the top and after that break above the last major high at 5562. The gap hunters will have seen the gap up this morning from 5382 remains unfilled.

AHT DAILY

[palwing32] 22/2/2024 09:36

Touching the top of the big wedge....where next?

[fenners66] 21/2/2024 14:36

Luxary US housebuilder says order book rose 40% and share price has hit a record high results and forecast beat.

I know AHT are not focussed on supporting housebuilding but with new houses comes infrastructure and some plant hire so it adds to the sentiment.

[disc0dave46] 19/2/2024 13:38

FED minutes I believe are this week - will be interesting to state the obvious!.