Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 18:59

(Sharecast News) - JPMorgan Cazenove reiterated its 'overweight' rating on Ashtead on Tuesday and hiked its price target to 6,800p from 5,600p as it argued the risk/reward is now attractive.The bank said the equipment rentals firm is currently a key debate stock in the sector, with the age old "cyclical or structural" debate reignited and likely to be tested over the coming 12 months.It said the profit warning in November has not helped calm fears despite being driven by multiple independent non-cycle related factors."However, our work in this note shows that a combination of structural changes and management actions has driven an evolution in the business model and created a more sustainable equity investment with still sector-plus growth rates, robust cash generation and strong balance sheet optionality meaning the business is no longer simply just a play on the cycle, something we believe the market does not appreciate currently, and which we explore further in this note."JPM said its work suggests the US non-residential outlook is not as bad as feared; mega projects will be a key driver of growth over the coming years; the group should continue to see significant market outperformance, supported by multiple drivers; and rental rates can remain resilient as catch-up replacement capex and disposals re-balance supply/demand."While the Q3 24 print will be soft (albeit well flagged), we forecast US and group organic rental revenue compound annual growth rate of 8% for FY25-26 with our upside scenario implying 13% growth," it said.JPM said that with the shares now trading at a 7% discount to their five-year average on EV/EBITA and at their widest discount to United Rentals - its closest peer - in five years, it sees the risk/ reward as attractive. It also reckons that as investors get more conviction on the earnings trajectory, shares should re-rate through the year, with scope for earnings upgrades too.

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 18:17

Mr bAre you a happy bunny now? lol

[bracke] 31/1/2024 16:01

Gap filled. OH THE SATISFACTION!

AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 15:34

Good afternoon Mr b

We will have to see, Baileys not exactly known for his success at making predictions!.

[bracke] 31/1/2024 15:22

disc0

OCD? Yes probably.

The Bank of England have been pouring cold water on the suggestion of cuts so even if Mr Powell continues with his Dovish stance it will be difficult for Mr Bailey to change his tune.

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 14:37

Good day Mr bThis creased me up, a TA guru with OCD!"merely in the add of neatness"Yep who knows with Mr P. Then our muppet (or should that be puppet) Bailey will simply follow whatever the FED say.March or June, place your bets!.

[bracke] 31/1/2024 13:52

Good day disc0

Mr Powell is a loose cannon. You will remember the last time he spoke was a 180 degree reversal of what he had said two weeks previously. What he will say this time is anyone's guess.


Meanwhile the share price is currently supported at the 61.8% FIB (5234). Perhaps Mr Powell will assist with a small drop to fill the gap at 5214......merely in the add of neatness.


AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 11:35

Microsoft and Alphabets results weren't received too positively....will Mr P take note I wonder?, probably not!.

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 10:47

Their update wasn't that bad IMO but not helped by the lack of guidance on how much below forecast they could be. As with AHT, milder weather was mentioned (reduced demand for heaters), and there was also a delay in new contracts being signed up (Rev now falling in their next FY).

[c_k] 31/1/2024 10:23

Interestingly Speedy FD bought 165500 in November at over 34p so couldn't have seen this profit warning coming.

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 10:18

Thanks Perfido.Saw it had tanked and meant to take a look at their RNS, but got distracted.....you've reminded me again so will take a look, thanks.

[perfido] 31/1/2024 08:00

In case you missed it: Profit warning hammers shares in Speedy Hire

SHARES in tool hire company Speedy Hire plunged after a nasty profit warning.

The company, which rents out everything from hammer drills and LED lights to generators, said it has been hit by a slowdown in trading, contract delays and a mild winter reducing demand for heating products. As a result, it expects profits to be lower than previously thought. Shares tumbled 18.1pc, or 6.5p, to 29.5p. (DM 31/01/24)
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[mcunliffe1] 30/1/2024 15:16

Sound advice indeed.

[bracke] 30/1/2024 14:45

Good day disc0

You'r welcome.


Good day MC

My analysis doesn't change the share price only seeks to understand it.

I am a retail trader i.e. never worked in the finance business. I commenced my learning 20 years ago. Charting suits me as my employment has always been of an analytical type. I have made all the mistakes more than once. I think of myself as having gone through the mill as a beginner and become 'intermediate'.

I have tried various trading tactics and have eventually settled on one that generally works....for now. I have never stopped learning or being prepared to change the tactics in the light of market changes.

The market is an unforgiving place. Learning to survive is the first lesson. Thereafter be pleased with success and learn from mistakes.

[mcunliffe1] 30/1/2024 14:19

It's almost worth buying AHT again Mr b just to be favoured with your input.

I'm actually serious rather than sarcastic. I wish I had an inkling of your insight.

Have a pleasant day gents.

[disc0dave46] 30/1/2024 14:03

Good day Mr bThanks as ever for your pretty graph and guru input :)

[bracke] 30/1/2024 13:05

A gap up this morning to skip over the 61.8% FIB (5234) and resisted at the next FIB 78.6% (5378).

A lot of data from the US this week which will either take the share price up to the the Big Wedge upper trendline or drop it back to fill the gap.

AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 30/1/2024 12:16

That might explain my luck.....all bad lolURI closed up 2.2% yesterday

[perfido] 29/1/2024 16:44

Thanks DD, re 62519 but with all due modesty, its just a case that if you can’t be good be lucky (occasionally!)
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[bracke] 29/1/2024 13:19

Trry this.

[mcunliffe1] 29/1/2024 13:10

sorry. trying to post a clickable version for discO - not for having it.

[disc0dave46] 29/1/2024 12:59

Saw this cartoon that was included in Terry Smiths annual letter and made me chuckle (believe it's from 1989).Hope the link gives a decent view of the cartoon, if not just google the title of the cartoon.Https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/43wirn/just_a_normal_day_at_the_nations_most_important/?rdt=48534

[disc0dave46] 29/1/2024 12:59

Nice one Perfido....again!, your timing seems spot on.

[perfido] 28/1/2024 17:56

Hi DD,

Thoroughly agree, I think that URI price movements have been the key influence on AHT latterly.

I'm not complaining, my very modest top-up on 8th Jan at 5012 has now got its head above water, after closing at 5244 this week, however this is not a short term punt, and is now included in my core holding. I am hopeful of further progress this coming week

However I note that URI closed down at 630 (-3.3%) on Friday...

:-)
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