Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 05/2/2024 16:50

URI down 1.5%
Sterling down 0.75% - good for AHT
AHT down 4.3%

mmm

[disc0dave46] 05/2/2024 16:21

Gilt yields rising and msrkets wobble.

[fenners66] 05/2/2024 15:46

What spooked these?

[disc0dave46] 03/2/2024 19:30

Good evening Mr bAgree, cut in March is unlikely. I was just surprised that on an annualised basis it fell below 2% for Nov and Dec. So it's definitely heading in the right direction and a cut or cuts will happen this year. Unless WW3 kicks in or the Red Sea events start to hit (I've heard that freight costs are starting to rise and shipping has reduced by a third).

[bracke] 03/2/2024 18:57

Good day disc0

Irrespective of whether to use six month annualised or monthly the January NFP and Average Hourly Earnings data suggests that inflation is not yet under control.

In addition the figures for November 2023 and December 2023 were revised up.

'The change in total Nonfarm Payrolls for November was revised up by 9,000, from +173,000 to +182,000, and the change for December was revised up by 117,000, from +216,000 to +333,000. Unemployment Rate held steady at 3.7%.'

A reduction in the rate appears very unlikely in March. The FED will likely want to see a few months of data with continuously lower figures before committing to a rate reduction.

The FED does have history of cutting the rate too early and also cutting it too late. Given the apparent strength of the US economy perhaps Mr Powell will err on the side of caution unless Mr Biden tells him otherwise.

[disc0dave46] 03/2/2024 16:57

Good day Mr bRead today in the shares mag that the core US inflation (PCE) calculated by Berenberg on a six month annualised basis dipped below 2% hitting 1.9% in November and December.Which I thought was very interesting given the FED seem to be focussing more on monthly spot readings.

[disc0dave46] 03/2/2024 16:50

Thanks for reminder Perfido.

[perfido] 03/2/2024 11:45

Next dividend details - reminder for holders :-)

Forthcoming Half Year Dividend - 15.75 cents per share, (12.40 pence) Payment due 8/02/24

(E&OE).

[disc0dave46] 02/2/2024 19:14

Good evening Mr b"When the market opens will it take umbrage or do the usually i.e. drop and then recover before the close."Yep!Looks like jobs growth and the assumption of no recession trumps Mr P's 2% inflation target.

[bracke] 02/2/2024 14:22

Good day disc0

The US Futures 'took off' last night and this morning totally ignoring what Mr Powell had said. Each time the market is knocked back it soon recovers apparently on the premise that all will be well in March or May or whenever. I ponder what would be required to sent it significantly lower.

The NFP DATA was a big miss and knocked the S&P 500 Futures back to yesterdays close. When the market opens will it take umbrage or do the usually i.e. drop and then recover before the close.

I refer to the S&P500 but it's only about the Big 7.

[disc0dave46] 02/2/2024 13:56

Good day Mr b"Perhaps the NFP data will resolve the direction."353k added v 185k forecast - dropped the indices, but as ever will probably shrug it off anyway given Mr P already threw cold water on the market the other day.

[bracke] 02/2/2024 13:09

Good day palwing

Normally the share price will break out of the wedge be it little or large before it reaches the apex. Each of the wedges on my chart should be considered separately.

Today the share price has gapped (yes another one)up to the Little Wedge upper line and stopped . There is also the FIB at 5378 to consider. Will it push through or retreat. Perhaps the NFP data will resolve the direction.

AHT DAILY

[palwing32] 02/2/2024 08:37

Thanks for your wedges Bracke. It would appear that the little wedge will meet the lower limit of the big wedge around the middle of March. Question is, will the little wedge punch through the lower edge of the big wedge?

[disc0dave46] 01/2/2024 20:01

It wasn't but there was some useful insights into current trading as well as a general theme that things will get better this year - well that's what I took from most of their feedback from various businesses, possibly I'm a glass half full chap?.

[bracke] 01/2/2024 18:49

disc0

I went back and looked at Box D. It didn't appear to be very optimistic.

I think I will stick to the charts

[disc0dave46] 01/2/2024 14:04

Mr bDid mean to add that the info detailed in "Box D - Agents update on business conditions" is particularly useful IMO. Most investing in the sectors covered will probably be up to speed with current conditions but some useful snippets on sector / industry specific forecasts, trends etc.The BoE do similar to the FED in terms of comms. They also have a press conference Q&A session - it's on the BBC news live link. Listened for about 2 minutes and none of the questions asked appeared to me to be answered - just like listening to politicians!.Agree are their forecasts worth anything?, probably not hence I prefer to take note of what actual businesses are saying (Box D).

[bracke] 01/2/2024 13:54

disc0

Thank you for the link which I skimmed.

When it comes to forecasting/predicting is the BoE very good at it? I think not. Not that they are alone in that respect. Remember 'transitory'. They would probably do best by saying nothing other than providing a brief up date when they announce the rate decision.

I watched the US decision last evening. The decision is announced and a written statement from the FED is provided. Then the press conference takes place with the press trying to get Powell to make a slip and Powell doing his best to avoid making one. Why have the press conference? It's a farce.

[disc0dave46] 01/2/2024 13:36

Good day Mr bGlad you're happy :)Thanks for the pretty chart. Talking of pretty charts just been glancing through the BoE report today - only the charts, or are they graphs?, most is over my head but do find it useful to see where they are predicting cost reductions / increases, unemployment, etc., to see if any sector specific data is of any interest. Anyway, for those struggling to sleep, or those who like pretty charts / graphs, the link is below:Https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2024/february-2024

[bracke] 01/2/2024 12:40

Good day disc0

"Are you a happy bunny now? lol"
===============================

Yes relatively. Neatness is restored.

Going forward a resolution to the Big Wedge will be required.

Doodling with the chart as I am wont to do I have added Little Wedge (violet) just for interest.

Mr Powell did it again and reverted back to his Hawk costume.


AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 21:14

No surprise really that Mr P has kept rates the same and put a downer on cuts in March - no surprise IMO and the usual hit to tech stocks. Time to buy more!.

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 18:59

(Sharecast News) - JPMorgan Cazenove reiterated its 'overweight' rating on Ashtead on Tuesday and hiked its price target to 6,800p from 5,600p as it argued the risk/reward is now attractive.The bank said the equipment rentals firm is currently a key debate stock in the sector, with the age old "cyclical or structural" debate reignited and likely to be tested over the coming 12 months.It said the profit warning in November has not helped calm fears despite being driven by multiple independent non-cycle related factors."However, our work in this note shows that a combination of structural changes and management actions has driven an evolution in the business model and created a more sustainable equity investment with still sector-plus growth rates, robust cash generation and strong balance sheet optionality meaning the business is no longer simply just a play on the cycle, something we believe the market does not appreciate currently, and which we explore further in this note."JPM said its work suggests the US non-residential outlook is not as bad as feared; mega projects will be a key driver of growth over the coming years; the group should continue to see significant market outperformance, supported by multiple drivers; and rental rates can remain resilient as catch-up replacement capex and disposals re-balance supply/demand."While the Q3 24 print will be soft (albeit well flagged), we forecast US and group organic rental revenue compound annual growth rate of 8% for FY25-26 with our upside scenario implying 13% growth," it said.JPM said that with the shares now trading at a 7% discount to their five-year average on EV/EBITA and at their widest discount to United Rentals - its closest peer - in five years, it sees the risk/ reward as attractive. It also reckons that as investors get more conviction on the earnings trajectory, shares should re-rate through the year, with scope for earnings upgrades too.

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 18:17

Mr bAre you a happy bunny now? lol

[bracke] 31/1/2024 16:01

Gap filled. OH THE SATISFACTION!

AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 31/1/2024 15:34

Good afternoon Mr b

We will have to see, Baileys not exactly known for his success at making predictions!.

[bracke] 31/1/2024 15:22

disc0

OCD? Yes probably.

The Bank of England have been pouring cold water on the suggestion of cuts so even if Mr Powell continues with his Dovish stance it will be difficult for Mr Bailey to change his tune.