Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave46] 19/1/2024 11:38

No problem.Next ex for the final div could be 15th August.

[palwing32] 19/1/2024 11:33

Thanks Disco....

[mcunliffe1] 19/1/2024 09:49

Indeed, a profit is a profit. That's exactly what I'm looking for here on my modest £5k. Not happening today I suspect.

I have made two x £250 profit on a £5k investment recently in ABDN (Abrdn). That share price tends to rise and fall with some regularity by about 10-15p. This not day trading but not far short of it and I figure, with ABDN, their large dividend yield (8.12% now) is a backstop should the share price fall. I wouldn't need to sell that holding so a drop in share price doesn't unduly worry me.

It seems a reasonable way to try and make some headway in this rather stagnant market.

[disc0dave46] 19/1/2024 09:25

Yep, was the 11th.

[palwing32] 18/1/2024 20:24

Just to be sure though, am I correct in saying we are now past the ex dividend date?

[palwing32] 18/1/2024 20:21

Thanks Bracke...food for thought and I have always respected your considered analysis. Being of a certain age group, it might soon be time for me to cash my original stake plus some, and let the rest ride. A profit is a profit as they say. Thanks again, appreciated.

[bracke] 18/1/2024 15:17

Good day palwing

The Big Wedge as I think of it had been pierced to the downside four times. On 20/11/23, 04/12/23, 17/01/24 and 18/01/24.

I have the apex at 5342. On the greater number of occasions an share price will not continue within the wedge to reach the apex, it will break out before. The number of recent piercings to the downside suggests a breakout to the downside but beware of false breakouts!

AHT DAILY




AHT WEEKLY

[bracke] 18/1/2024 15:00

disc0

"Yes the hound likes vegetables but unfortunately his stomach doesn’t!…;…and neither do I lol.
====================================================================================

Yes that is the downside!

The gap - close but no coconut.

[riley109] 18/1/2024 14:48

Hello MCunliffe1,
Have a look here and it should tell you what you are asking.

[disc0dave46] 18/1/2024 14:34

Good day Mr bFrom your earlier post:"As I type AHT share price is heading up to fill the gap at 4868."Got very close but still time!Yes the hound likes vegetables but unfortunately his stomach doesn't!......and neither do I lol.

[mcunliffe1] 18/1/2024 14:03

I love these threads. There's a wealth of knowledge and understanding (neither bestowed upon me I add) that one can tap into.

Thanks all of you.

These are indeed interesting times but with the market so often in the doldrums a little 'side' interest in something like AHT brightens up the day.

[bracke] 18/1/2024 13:57

Good day MC

I must correct you. I don't predict. I use charts and technical indicators to take a considered view...yes I know; semantics.

To achieve £250 profit you require a selling price of approx £50.60.

There are two resistance zones the share price has to overcome:

1 Once the gap at 4868 is filled the target is achieved and the share price may drop back.

2 The 38.2% FIB at 4960.

On the positive side:

1 The daily chart RSI appears to be basing and there is the beginning of an upturn.

2 The 23.6% FIB at 4762 has held so far.

I have no doubt you will get your £250 it's just a question of when. A drop to the dashed red line at 4653 remains a possibility and depending on 'events' a completion of the cycle back to 4437.

All rather confusing but we are in 'interesting times' and it's best to be aware of the good signs and the bad signs so that action may be taken according to your criteria.


AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 18/1/2024 13:11

They did revise guidance after Q2 in Nov. As you say the actors/writers strike hit them along with fewer hurricanes!. The latter issue was a surprise to me, I'm sure that in the past such weather events weren't factored into their financial forecasts and were an additional bonus, albeit not a bonus to those people impacted by adverse weather events, but it seems now they do factor in emergency weather events.

[mcunliffe1] 18/1/2024 12:50

discO/fenners66: well met - again.

Noted about bracke and his predictions.

I was aware the ex-div had just passed but thankyou for the info. on the rough payout dates and the larger (final?) div. in September. £70.00 payment isn't likely to hold much interest for me so I suspect I will trade this as and when a decent profit (but not greedy) arises.

I was aware that the recent actors/screenwriter's strikes in the USA had caused some loss of earnings. Ashtead bought a cinema equipment supply company in the US some shortish time back. I believe most of their earnings/profit derive from the US.

[fenners66] 18/1/2024 12:37

MCunliffe1 - Welcome aboard , at £250 or about 5% a profit is a profit.
Dividends are rising - some would say quickly - I would say not quickly enough - next payable 12th Feb (don't know the XD date will be about 12.75p but it gets calculated afer being declared in $
September is the better slug currently about 67p but would expect some rise in that.
Really though AHT is a bet on the US economy and if they have a soft landing / start spending on infrastructure like they keep saying they will then AHT should pick up potentially $bns more work over time...

[disc0dave46] 18/1/2024 12:33

Welcome and good luck MC.Div yield only circa 1.6%-1.8% and interim div ex day was last week the 11th at 15.75cents.Seems like there's been a seller in the background since the start of 2024 and the share price has dropped about 13% (excluding todays action) based on the bid price (which is what I look at as a holder).Forward PE is 13.8 and below the 10 year average of 15.1 (so undervalued IMO). Based on current fundamentals I've pencilled in a fairly conservative target price of £55 - £60 for FY25. So not a multibagger but decent return should be forthcoming (we hope!).If you want to trade then would definitely follow and take on board what the resident TA guru posts, bracke, his tea leaf interpretation is second to none! (only joshing Mr b).

[bracke] 18/1/2024 12:07

Good day disc0

Today the market thinks the negative was a little overdone so lets take it up a little.

As I type AHT share price is heading up to fill the gap at 4868.

I hope the hound is not over indulging on the MacD's. Best give him some veg with the burgers. Plenty of strays about...Christmas clear out.

A couple of the FED members talking today; could be some further volatility.

[mcunliffe1] 18/1/2024 12:03

Good afternoon Messrs D and B and others.

Thought I'd have a look at what is being discussed on the Ashtead thread that has some activity.

I've watched the share price of Ashtead for a while. A mate of mine works for them - has for some years now. The recent share price drop seemed over-egged to me so I jumped in this moring and bought 103 shares at £48.13 avg incl. my deal charge and s. duty.

I was hoping to make a quick buck in a boring market and those 103 shares are currently showing I'm in profit by £39. Hardly enough for a decent meal but it would get me a Maccy D's - and I've no dog sharing some of it.

What can you guys tell me? Divi dates/amounts?

I'm tempted to jump ship at about the £250 profit mark. The yield is not as good as I'd like. I hold LGEN PHNX BATS RECI and TFIF amongst others for the div.

Thanks in advance.

[disc0dave46] 17/1/2024 19:41

Good evening Mr bIndeed, indeed.The hound is back on to left over MacD's again, plus I've picked up another stray to keep him company.

[bracke] 17/1/2024 19:10

Good day disc0

It's as good a reason as any for some volatility.

[disc0dave46] 17/1/2024 18:44

Thanks Mr b

Did chuckle at today’s market reaction, only a miss by 0.1% and timberrrr!. No economist but would guess the dogs dinner that inflation generally rises in December. Also ironic that the miss to forecast was due to tobacco and alcohol duties/tax, imposed by the government, doh!.

[trt] 17/1/2024 14:57

If it drops below £45 we could easily see £40.

[bracke] 17/1/2024 14:27

Not a pretty picture (chart)

This morning the share price gapped down from 4868 and the US futures market is currently down courtesy of:

'Fed Governor Christopher Waller has said that there was no rush for the world's most influential central bank to begin slashing interest rates down from more than two-decade highs, pouring more cold water on already waning hopes that policymakers could start to lower borrowing costs early this year.'

On the chart I have added a dashed red line at 4653 which has been a previous support zone.
In addition the share price has fallen below the long term rising trend line.

AHT DAILY

[trt] 17/1/2024 08:06

Heading towards £45 level again.

[bracke] 16/1/2024 18:28

disc0

Inflation, hard landing, election, and last but not least Trump.

I suppose he could ditch 2% or more likely go for '2% average in the longer term', after all he did a 180degree turn with 'transitory'.