Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 13/12/2022 16:21

Good day disc0

It was becoming excited before the data was released... a leak, a drip or hopeful thinking? whatever it was it was correct.

Now we await Mr Powell & Co's decision tomorrow. The increase appears to be a done deal at 0.5%. The more important aspect is will we see Powell the Dove, Powell the Hawk or a bit of both. Of late he has leaned more to the Dove, at least that has how the market interpreted his statements.

[disc0dave45] 13/12/2022 15:03

US CPI slows....the market is excited lol.

[bracke] 12/12/2022 16:19

The share price is clinging on to the first support level at 4861. Tomorrows US CPI and Wednesdays FED rate decision should determine a break up or down. I suppose it could just continue sideways but I give that a low probability.

AHT DAILY

[disc0dave45] 10/12/2022 11:12

Thanks perfido :)

[disc0dave45] 10/12/2022 11:12

According to BIS then we are all doomed by this off balance sheet fx debt…….but they also say in another paper that fx settlement risk is only (I say only, it’s still a big number and has increased) $2.2tn. Is that encompassing all the derivatives in the $80tn that’s hidden but not that hidden? and if so then only 2.7% of the debt is at risk.
Not ignoring the info but strange that during and after the GFC this debt continued to rise and has been rising for decades yet the market and businesses trundle along and supposedly are able to cover their liabilities. Also, clearly the FED, ECB, BoE etc etc are oblivious to this hidden debt and are happy to throw petrol on the fore by increasing interest rates.

[perfido] 10/12/2022 10:57

Ashtead beating the inflationary squeeze, says HL

Equipment rental group Ashtead (AHT) has raised guidance following a strong first half and Hargreaves Lansdown says it has become adept at brushing aside inflationary pressures.

First-half revenue at the group rose 26% to $4.8bn, with growth driven by rental-only revenue in the US, also up 26% at $3bn. This allowed the board to deliver a 20% increase in the dividend and spend $207m on share buybacks as part of a two-year programme of up to $1bn.

Analyst Matt Britzman said the group had ‘been able to brush aside inflationary pressures and deliver a strong first half with top- and bottom-line growth’.

‘Better still for investors, full-year guidance got a bump higher too as Ashtead’s end markets look robust in the face of wider economic uncertainty,’ he said.

‘Ashtead’;s largest market, the US, is benefiting from a host of fiscal policies aimed at improving infrastructure and supply chain resilience. Ashtead’s scale and expertise should place it well to be a key supplier.’

While Britzman said inflation ‘remains a challenge’, but Ashtead has ‘the scope to pass most of the pain onto its customers with higher rental rates on its $15bn rental fleet’.

Shares in Ashtead were trading up 1.4% at £51.08 on Tuesday afternoon, closed £49.02 on Friday 9th Dec.
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[rescuer] 08/12/2022 23:24

Fenners, thank you for that.

One bit i didn't understand was the "Swap Bank", he suggested if one part of the trade defaulted, then it would take the "swap bank" with it.

I thought a Swap Bank was merely a market maker of kind.. equalling off both sides of the swap trade....

[fenners66] 08/12/2022 21:36

Ok so I watched the Vid.

The doom loop mentioned at the end talks of Euro income , failing to pay US $ debt.
But the principal they were trying to explain was "Swaps"
theoretically therefore - although he kept referring to off balance sheet debt in US$ , that might quantify it in a single currency - there should be an equal and opposite value in other FX to match the swap against.

Not withstanding that obviously FX rates come into play and his example used $1 = €1 just for simplicity , there should be an equal debt from Euro companies being financed by US$ earnings , so if the US $ rises vs the € then the FX gain actually makes it easier to pay the € finance.

The opposite of his doom loop.

As for derivatives, being only a foot note to the accounts - I was aware of derivative disclosure coming into the accounts pre 2010.
Not saying I have a full understanding of what the BIS is getting at - but I can imagine that its not as bad as this video portrays.

[bracke] 08/12/2022 19:25

Good day rescuer

You'r welcome. Hope you and yours are well and enjoying the resurgence of the 'Team'.

When I see videos which appear to forecast doom I am put in mind of the 'sub prime market affair'. I remember reading about the impending sub prime doom and what would happen to the banks at least six months before it happened. I thought it was the usual over hyping a situation.....it wasn't. Those who took it seriously should have made a fortune shorting the banks and others, unfortunately I didn't but always on the lookout for second chance!

[rescuer] 08/12/2022 19:08

bracke - thank you for that video.. very interesting..

hope all you ashteaders are well.

[disc0dave45] 08/12/2022 18:44

Who knows what the FED will do, but concur, 0.5% likely next week, perish the thought that he goes higher!.Jobless data seems to be taken well by our cousins, all US indices are up at the moment from what I've quickly glanced at.

[bracke] 08/12/2022 18:18

Is it up enough to dissuade Mr Powell from any thoughts of 0.75% rate rise. Given his last talk at the Brookings Institute he didn't come over as 'aggressive' about rate rises rather the opposite. I think it will be 0.5%. The market appears more concerned with the size of each rate rise rather than how high the rate will go, which is illogical but who would say the market is logical.

[disc0dave45] 08/12/2022 17:06

US jobless claims up 4k and hits a 10 month high.Not up a massive amount but at least it's up!.

[bracke] 08/12/2022 16:52

This is an 'interesting' video but an alarming one. I don't know how the scenario will play out but given that the BIS (Bank of International Settlement)is ringing the alarm bell it bears attention.

fenners you will 'like' it. Lots of off-book debt which in itself is deceptive. One wonders how many companies have this off book debt.

[bracke] 08/12/2022 11:50

"so every day is a day for learning :)"
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Indeed it is. I hope I never stop.

[disc0dave45] 08/12/2022 11:33

Thanks brackeAlways thought it was literally the gap (space) between candles, not from a close value, so every day is a day for learning :)

[bracke] 08/12/2022 11:23

Good day disc0

The gap is from the CLOSE on 31/10 which was 4550 and the LOWEST thereafter which was on 03/11 which was 4564. So the gap is 14p.

The generally accepted definition of a gap is as above but some consider the gap is not filled until the whole of the gap candle is filled i.e. in the example we are referring to it would mean that the share price would have to drop to 4453 which was the LOW on the day the gap occurred from.

As to "tiny gaps" sometimes the market fills them sometimes it doesn't. If a gap occurs as a result of a large drop and then the SP/INDEX pulls up it may not go back to fill even a larger gap. I have records of gaps on the indexes that occurred at a low years ago and have never been filled and probably won't be.

[disc0dave45] 08/12/2022 10:55

Good day Mr bThanks for your chart.One question - isn't the "gap" you mention very tiny at 3p (high 31/10 4561, low 3/11 4564), so when is a gap deemed to be a gap?Thanks

[bracke] 07/12/2022 18:43

AHT at first support.
The gap at 4550 becomes a target. High probability of a fill by end of January if not end of December.

AHT DAILY

[bracke] 07/12/2022 18:40

disc0

"Would some stocks though because of the sector they operate in (eg defensive) react contrary to the market, so TA the relevant sector index?. Guess there aren’t many though."
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Yes you are correct. It's always worth looking at the Sector Indexes. The market likes to rotate out of some sectors and into others when it thinks one/some have gone up or down enough and into those that have relatively done the opposite.

But when the the issues are wider and the market takes fright there are few that avoid the panic.

[perfido] 07/12/2022 18:32

Nice one disc0,

Most encouraging 😊.
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[disc0dave45] 07/12/2022 18:15

RBCAshtead's "strong" Q2 earnings and raised full-year 2023 outlook had led it to lift 2023 and 2024 earnings per share estimates by roughly 6% and 9%, respectively. As a result, RBC said its price target also pushed up as the group "continues to execute well" in its core US market, where the supply/demand balance remains "highly favourable", driving both volume and rate improvements. "Although some historically reliable demand indicators have rolled over, Ashtead is convinced that the non-resi project pipeline is robust and that significant fiscal stimulus creates a rich seam of counter-cyclical rental equipment demand," said the Canadian bank. "We continue to see AHT as a structural long-term beneficiary in the fragmented North American equipment rental market, with optionality around international expansion. Management is best in class, and we see the revenue mix as ever more resilient, bolstered by rapidly-growing, under-penetrated specialty solutions and the near-term stimulus of the vast US Infrastructure, CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Act in coming years."