Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 11/11/2022 23:16

UK "likely to go into recession " I heard this on the BBC several times today , to make sure I got the message , they even spent ages on the radio discussing how we could cut back on Xmas related spending ... just to try and ensure there's a recession.

Meanwhile the ONS tells us that the negative number for August has since been revised upwards ie. not as bad and that at least half of the number for Sept was due to the extra bank holiday - in other words the result of the 3 months to Sep was (excluding bank holiday and before any upward later revision) 0.1 % decline or less in GDP.

BBC did not mention the bank holiday effect.

Since two consecutive quarters of negative GDP are a "recession" it seems the BBC is hell bent on talking us into one no matter how "technical " it may be.

Ok so we know it could be a real one , but a lot of what gets the country into a recession is a lack of confidence and spreading doom and gloom to damage that is what our media revels in.

[disc0dave45] 11/11/2022 22:45

Hi perfidoMeant to reply earlier, sorry.Short answer f@ck knows! :)

[disc0dave45] 11/11/2022 15:20

He's never put off from his nosh.What is a recession? - Interestingly the US National Bureau of Economic Research even called the Covid downturn in the Spring of 2020 as a "recession" albeit it only lasted for two months.

[bracke] 11/11/2022 15:02

I hope I didn't put the hound of his Winalot.

Yes there are always businesses who do well in a recession but the majority do not.

What will be, will be.

[disc0dave45] 11/11/2022 14:43

Good day Mr bThe hound says woof woof, grrrr, wuff:1) Agree interest rates will continue to rise but the FED may be happy / have to settle with 3% inflation. 2) Declining growth isn't a given - short term would suspect so but medium to long naah. AHT did okay with inflation at c 3%.2) Recession - markets tend to do okay during recessions. Yes a tech recession, a full blown BoE (clueless) hard and long recession IMO I don't think so.Nobody knows, some seem to want a recession and talk us into one but there are still businesses that do okay and even prosper during such periods. Please don't ask me to list them! :)

[bracke] 11/11/2022 14:27

Good day disc0

"the hound reckons the bottom isn’t too far off!"
=================================================

I suspect the hound has been swept along by yesterdays wave of euphoria.

Has he considered the following:

1 US inflation is still some way above the FED target. Even if the FED ease the level of rate increases to 0.5% the interest rate will increase. This equals less borrowing, less spending and lower growth.

2 As the FED pursues its tightening it will impact US companies leading to lower profits. The result will be higher PE or lower share price.

3 Will the above lead to recession?

The hound will likely consider me to be negative/pessimistic but the above should not be ignored.

In the meantime being a short term trader whichever way it goes is largely immaterial to me. I trade what is today not what will be next week, next month or next year.

A couple of weekly charts the hound may like to keep an eye on. The down sloping red line is the primary trend.

The first is the DOW 30 which yesterday broke and held above the primary trend.
The second is the S&P 500 which is some way short of the primary trend.

DOW 30 WEEKLY



S&P 500 WEEKLY

[disc0dave45] 11/11/2022 12:18

perfidoThanks.....who said bottom picking is a bad habit? lolLooks like some rotation again today, from defensive to growth, could be wrong....and besides it does seem a tad premature IMO.No Mrb I'm still optimistic generally, but simply on the basis that there's an opportunity to be had that doesn't happen all that often - the hound reckons the bottom isn't too far off!

[perfido] 11/11/2022 09:59

Good morning disc0,

Thanks for your AHT comment.

You are clearly doubly blessed if you are in JD as well as AHT..

Well done! :-)
.

[disc0dave45] 11/11/2022 09:20

Rock on JD :)Congrats on your PCA

[rescuer] 10/11/2022 17:48

perfido..no not had contact with Steve for a very long time.. Last i heard, he was heading over the pond to retire.

I'm sure he still looks in, but under another avatar.. his last notification was a TR1 for TOM, where he was holding over 3%..hope it comes off for him..

I still have regular contact with Clarky, McInvest and Canford Cliffs.. all are doing well..

[bracke] 10/11/2022 17:32

I suspect as usual on a large volume day the volume currently shown as 1.04 million for today is not a true figure and some of todays volume will be will be in tomorrows reading.

[perfido] 10/11/2022 17:30

Thanks dcarn, I think we long term holders all deserve some credit for sticking with AHT through thick and thin..

Your sisters right, though, AHT has been an amazing journey :-}

In addition posters here such as bracke (although I believe he has me filtered at present 😁) and others have added a great deal of value, knowledge and enjoyment here - long may it continue...
.

[dcarn] 10/11/2022 17:19

Well done on the profit Perfido.

AHT, the gift that keeps on giving, as my sister described it the other day.

[bracke] 10/11/2022 17:18

I don't know if that is the largest one day rise but if not it has to be close.

The share price 'smashed' through 4911 and the minor channel then up to the top of the main channel.

Now what:

1 Continue up to 5555.

2 Take a breather moving sideways before going for 5555.

3 A retrace before continuing up.

4 A retrace back to test 4911.

Option 1 would be a big ask. Not out of question but a low probability.

Options 2 and 3 seem most likely

Option 4 Given the US market mood this seems unlikely.

Apart from profit taking specific to AHT much will depend on how convinced the US market is convinced the worst is over and the 'sunny uplands' are ahead.

AHT DAILY

[perfido] 10/11/2022 16:40

Thanks palwing, I believe its a case of 'if you can't be good, be lucky'

I hope you are enjoying the AHT resurgence as well?

:-}

[perfido] 10/11/2022 16:38

All good here rescuer, thanks

Have you heard from Hatto (Steve Hattersley) lately? Once a stalwort of this thread but I believe he was going west to our American colony when last heard of?

[palwing32] 10/11/2022 16:34

Nice one. Congrats.

[rescuer] 10/11/2022 16:30

been a long while perfido.. I still keep in touch with some of the old employees from AHT and some of the old shareholders.

I'm not investing at present and haven't been since Covid,, just day trading,, in and out to scalp a few points.

hope you are well and trading has been kind to you..

[perfido] 10/11/2022 16:22

Thanks rescuer, nice to see you back on this board ...

[rescuer] 10/11/2022 16:19

well done on your profit Perfido..

[perfido] 10/11/2022 15:30

In the interests of full disclosure:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I have unexpectedly sold out my AHT PCA (pound cost averaging) holding this afternoon at a price of 5156.69p after this unprecedented rise today (+<>326p currently), to manage/reduce risk and bank some profit.

The residue of my original core holding still remains intact, so I still have 'skin in the game' and I will consider restarting the PCA when/if circumstances appear favourable.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This posting is not intended to influence other investors who's circumstances will be different - good luck to all.

NAI :-)
.

[bracke] 10/11/2022 14:52

LOL. Thank you. A gap fill is always gratifying.

An interesting day. It will be interesting to see where the market goes when the dust settles.

[disc0dave45] 10/11/2022 14:13

Pleased for you :)