Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 23/11/2022 16:04

Mr bAgree that timing is still very important irrespective of your strategy.....im Happy though in some instances to know there's decent upside (c 30% providing forecasts are indeed met) and to dip in even if it's not at its recent low or 52w low, plenty of stocks have overshot to the downside already and one can miss these opportunities by trying to time the market to perfection, which IMO cannot be done (if it is it's pure luck nothing more).As for the FED, guess when / if a rate rise is lower (0.5%) the market will still over react so que sera sera.

[bracke] 23/11/2022 14:00

disc0

As an investor I understand your "time in the market" comment. Although investors may not time to the 'N'th degree' timing is still of importance to avoid over paying and maximising profit....or minimising loss. As a short term trader 'timing' is paramount.

'The Minutes'. Previous statements by Mr Powell and recent statements by FED members have sought to down play any thoughts of a 'pivot' and reiterate additional rate increases. Whether the minutes make reference to a reduced size of the rate increases to 0.5%...maybe. The danger is that the market will interpret such a reference as a pivot and 'take off' which is not what the FED want.

US data just released shows jobless claims increased which the FED will like and durable goods orders also increased which the FED will not like. Honours even.

Whatever will be, will be. Not long to wait.

[disc0dave45] 23/11/2022 12:22

Thanks Mr bYour comments made me laugh, very good.For me it's time in the market not timing the market (although some of my recent dip buys are doing okay....so far!)Have a good one and hopefully the minutes (7pm) will make optimistic reading! :)

[bracke] 23/11/2022 11:11

Good day disc0

The S&P 500 says it's being resisted at 4000 but is hopeful that the minutes will give it the energy to overcome resistance and move on to 4100.

The DOW says 'stuff the minutes' I'm well on the way up and if the minutes give me another 200/300 great I'll take them. I'm booked in for some therapy to help control my natural exuberance.

The Nasdaq is also booked in for therapy to overcome depression and lethargy. It thinks the minutes will restate what the FED has been saying and that there is no salvation yet awhile.

So all in all a mixed bag.

[disc0dave45] 22/11/2022 19:37

Good day Mr bWhat do the charts for US indices say?

[bracke] 22/11/2022 18:14

Good day disc0

US market up today and appears to have decided to stay up for the time being. Is this because:

A. It expects 'nice' words from the minutes.

OR

B. It expects 'nasty' words from the minutes and today was about taking the market up in order to prepare for profitable shorts.

Just being my usual cynical self.

[disc0dave45] 22/11/2022 17:40

Quiet on here.Some flash pmi's tomorrow and later FOMC minutes (if I recall correctly), then Thanksgiving Thursday so US closed - will the FTSE know what to do! lol

[perfido] 18/11/2022 16:44

Thanks disc0,

AHT did a reverse ferret today and climbed +148p to close 5010p, but still well below my latest sale price of 5156.69 so mustn't grumble...

The question remains, will the upwards momentum continue next week?

Mesdames et messieurs, faites vos jeux ! (place your bets)....

In the meantime United Rentals are snapping up Ahern For $2 Billion and have announced the pricing of a Private Offering of $1.5 Billion of 6.00% Senior Secured Notes due 2029

A high stakes game indeed!

Have a good weekend all, and if you listen to/watch members of the fourth estate currently, on radio, TV or other media we are all doomed, yes doomed, they say, so lets enjoy it while we can :-)
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[disc0dave45] 18/11/2022 15:20

No discredit in taking a profit :)

[perfido] 18/11/2022 12:43

Hi Disco,

Alas AHT is doing its best to discredit me this morning, I would hold off on the glass balls till we see where this is going 😂

[disc0dave45] 18/11/2022 11:20

"is looking prescient"Where can I get one of these glass balls? lol

[perfido] 17/11/2022 16:43

AHT closed £48.62 (-44p, 0.9%) and I still don't think we have touched bottom.

In all modesty my sale of my PCA (pound cost averaging) holding @ 5156.69 10/11/22 is looking prescient?

Still a 'believer', I am confident that in the long term AHT will deliver.....fingers crossed 🤞

[disc0dave45] 17/11/2022 14:13

Not long! :(

[bracke] 17/11/2022 13:10

Good day disc0

So far it's holding at the 23.6% fib but for how long.

[disc0dave45] 17/11/2022 11:37

Good day Mr b"It seems not"Indeed!Oh well, let's see what Hunt has to say then US Jobless claims.

[bracke] 16/11/2022 15:12

Good day disc0

"Possibly some support at 4930-4950?"
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It seems not. More likely at the daily fib extension 23.6% - 4861.

[disc0dave45] 16/11/2022 13:03

Thanks Mr bPossibly some support at 4930-4950?Have a good day

[bracke] 16/11/2022 12:08

The share price has retraced 61.8% of the rise on 10th November where on the shorter time frames it is being supported. (See purple fib extension.)It has also dropped back into the lesser rising channel. One may be inclined to think following the retrace it will hold and yes it might but for how long?

There are two charts below. The hourly shows the situation mentioned above. The daily suggests something different. Look at the position of the RSI and look at previous price action when the RSI has been in a similar position.

AHT HOURLY




AHT DAILY

[disc0dave45] 15/11/2022 14:03

US PPI +0.2% forecast was +0.4%

[disc0dave45] 15/11/2022 12:44

Thanks Perfido Been keeping an eye on Speedy but missed their H1 this morning.I know this sounds a bit fanciful and overly optimistic but Ukraine - at some point it is IMO looking like Putin will have to withdrawal, then there will be a massive influx of supporting funds (particularly IMO from the US) to rebuild the nation and the opportunities for companies like AHT will be massive. Yes I know folks it's being optimistic but do think it's more likely than not now.Anyway, today looks like profit taking and flipping again to defensives.

[perfido] 15/11/2022 11:10

Speedy Hire half year results:



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Commenting on the results Dan Evans, Chief Executive, said:

"I am pleased to announce resilient results for the six months to 30 September 2022. Revenue growth remained strong, with increased strategic investment in growth initiatives including Retail and Trade, marketing and ESG.

Revenue growth is continuing with new contract wins, the effect of actions taken on price and a healthy pipeline of customer activity which gives confidence for further growth in the second half. Whilst the macroeconomic outlook is uncertain and inflationary pressures remain high, I take over as Chief Executive at a time when our business is performing well, is resilient and positioned to manage changes in market conditions. We remain confident of delivering results in line with the Board's expectation for the full year."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Currently down 7.3% -3.15 @ 40.10

(Personally, I am not a holder but this financial statement may provide a useful insight into current market conditions).
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[disc0dave45] 14/11/2022 21:48

Should I turn out the lights? :-)Wouldn't hurt to save a few pennies!

[perfido] 14/11/2022 17:29

Whoa this is really spooky... where's everyone gone?

Should I turn out the lights? :-)
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[perfido] 12/11/2022 07:57

Fenners,

Totally in agreement, need I say more?
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[fenners66] 11/11/2022 23:18

I saw some estimates of what a recession could do to unemployment ... add about 1.5%

That would get us back to .......
......normal .

A disaster for individuals concerned - but not the disaster for the country that the media portrays.