Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 28/10/2022 13:27

Good day Mr bNo economist but what's the impact on employment and price stability if the target is 3%?, it seems to me with low unemployment and GDP growth (Q3 +2.6% forecast was 2.4%), that the risks of pushing inflation too low is more detrimental in terms of a full blown recession, higher unemployment and increased instability in prices than aiming 1% higher.Why 2%?, long run average is 3.2%.....it's all above my pay grade tbh.

[fenners66] 28/10/2022 13:19

Has the FED learned from history ?
or is the lesson that having a US recession does not matter?

[bracke] 28/10/2022 12:10

Good day disc0

The more I read about the US situation the more it appears to depend on how determined the FED are to achieving 2% inflation and are prepared to accept a deep recession.. The market appears to think that the FED will 'bottle it' and is continually front running the expectation of a FED pivot.

In the meantime we trade what we see.

[disc0dave45] 27/10/2022 21:50

"Which begs the question 'how far into the future?"Hopefully 12 months or so, can't see too much more bad news to come......he said with everything crossed and hound included in that.I see caterpillar beat expectations.

[bracke] 27/10/2022 14:41

The US mid term elections occur mostly on the 8th November. Which is something else to consider.

"Interesting times and hopefully one that provides future prosperity."
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Which begs the question 'how far into the future?'

[disc0dave45] 27/10/2022 13:02

Good afternoon Mr bThanks for that.As previously posted their 20 year (or 19 year can't remember) average was 3.2% so no surprise they will move the 2% target (their 10 year average inflation rate I believe).Interesting times and hopefully one that provides future prosperity.

[bracke] 27/10/2022 11:26

Good day disc0

Ref Post 61374

Yes to both. CPI is on 10 November.

The FED will likely have the information or at least a good idea of it.

Given what Mr Powell has said he has probably decided what the increase will be unless there is a major change in the CPI data.

The FED expects to raise the rate to approx 4.4% by the end of 2022 but don't expect to reach their 2.0% inflation rate target until 2025.

With low unemployment and companies short of labour the pressure is to increase pay rates to get workers which doesn't help reduce inflation. Hence increase interest rates until the pips squeak.

[disc0dave45] 26/10/2022 22:41

Yep, they had a record Q3, beats earnings forecasts and raised their 2022 estimates for total revenue, adjusted EBITDA and Capex.Matthew Flannery CEO: "While there are clearly cross-currents in the economy, virtually all key non-residential construction indicators remain encouraging, including customer sentiment. In addition, we see substantial opportunities next year across federally funded infrastructure projects, industrial manufacturing, energy and power. We expect to deliver another year of profitable growth, strong cash flow, and attractive returns for our shareholders."

[dcarn] 26/10/2022 21:21

URI 3rd Q's out.

[disc0dave45] 26/10/2022 19:37

Am I right in saying the next FED meeting and rate change is next week (1st-2nd) but CPI data isn't until the following week? - so does the FED get the CPI data before it's released to the media or what, seems an odd way to make a decision on the interest rate.

[rescuer] 26/10/2022 18:17

An old school friend relocated to the US about 30 years ago and owns a Real Estate company.

I chatted to her last year and asked about the US housing mkt.. she said it was fine generally.. but said that if the Fed moved base to 4%, it would kill their housing mkt.

[parps] 26/10/2022 17:06

Dire Straits as well,perhaps?

[bracke] 26/10/2022 14:09

"Pivot - doubt you mean a complete policy reversal but a smaller rate hike, 0.5% rather than 0.75%. My money is on the latter."
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The doubt is that the FED will pursue their 2% inflation target to the bitter end. The view is that if they were to do so the US economy would be in dire straights.

US inflation is 8.2% so even if the FED were to ease off the rate increases before their target and accept 3% inflation as a new target they still have some distance to go.

I agree that the November increase is likely to be 0.75% which would take the interest rate to 4.0%. I presume the FED will look at the data before deciding on the December increase.

Bear in mind the FED had all the data and were still saying inflation was 'transitory' before eventually agreeing it wasn't. The view is that the FED have a history of always being behind the curve and then over react.

[disc0dave45] 26/10/2022 13:15

Good day Mr bEverything comes to those that wait!.This did make me chuckle:"I appreciate that it's not so much that the share price has risen above the SMA 200 as the SMA 200 has dropped below the SP"Pivot - doubt you mean a complete policy reversal but a smaller rate hike, 0.5% rather than 0.75%. My money is on the latter.

[bracke] 26/10/2022 11:09

Thanks to Mr Sunak.

[fenners66] 26/10/2022 11:04

But sterling has risen again....

[bracke] 26/10/2022 11:02

Good day disc0

You must have been praying extra hard lately. Not only did the share price hold above the resisting fib yesterday but has held above it so far today. It has also met the SMA 200 (black squiggly line). I appreciate that it's not so much that the share price has risen above the SMA 200 as the SMA 200 has dropped below the share price ......but it's a start.......hopefully.

The US market seems to think that the FED will pivot on the rate increase. We've been here before and they were wrong. The cynics among us may well think it's a ploy to take the markets up and then drop them when the FED don't pivot.


AHT DAILY

[disc0dave45] 25/10/2022 16:37

Good afternoon Mr bThanks, always nice to see an upside gap filled!.Any reason for the afternoon kick up in the market?, can't see any news, unless it's down to Hunt retaining his chancellor post?.

[bracke] 25/10/2022 11:48

Good day disc0

The gap to the upside at 4298 filled but that appears to be it for now.

[disc0dave45] 21/10/2022 15:01

Good day Mr bIndeed I do.More cheap pickings for our cousins again!What manipulation:)

[bracke] 21/10/2022 12:24

Good day disc0

I thought you'd like the upside gap.


Good day rescuer

When to enter, when to exit.

There are a number of useful indicators including s/r zones, SMAs/EMAs, gap fills, round numbers e.g. 7000. Observing over time the instrument you are trading you will understand which indicators the instrument reacts to. I am unaware of any easy method it just takes time and experience.

[rescuer] 21/10/2022 11:43

thank you Bracke..

went short yesterday morning, closed out when Truss resigned,, too much uncertainty..

decent profit,, but would have been much much more, if I'd had the balls to stay short..

missed my long on lloyds yesterday.. went to make a cup of tea, came back to find it hit support and had rallied.. sat it out when i missed the initial entry.. rallied 5%..

still trading small, until i can fully get to grips with Fib sequencing and confirmations.. but 21 trades now and 20 profits..

appreciate all the pointers you've given my via messaging..

thank you
r

[disc0dave45] 21/10/2022 11:39

Good morning Mr bYippee a gap to the upside to fill :)

[bracke] 21/10/2022 10:28

One gap filled at 4269 but another opened at 4298 but it's to the upside so the fill is something to look forward to.

Once again the share price was unable to hold above the fib at 4371 and has decided to drop to the fib at 4159 to give it a test. If it does pierce 4159, support is likely at 4100 or 3987.

AHT DAILY