Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[cuthbert77] 19/3/2018 21:49

Could pick up again now.

[junior21] 19/3/2018 21:35

Let’s hope so.

Is always nice to have a share or two bucking the trend on what has been a poor day for the market.

Still think these could double and still be cheap, but a lot of work has to be done first to turn the pipeline into hard figures.

[spursspurs] 19/3/2018 16:11

tide turned?

[yasx] 12/3/2018 10:20

The drift continues....

[rp19] 10/3/2018 19:24

Managing expectations is not necessarily a bad thing in my opinion. Potential for under promise and over deliver. MS partnership provides a platform. Still got to execute though.

[norbert colon] 10/3/2018 19:03

Yes historically revenues have been lumpy not helped by the fact they are at the mercy of Govt decision making (or lack of). With the LHA rent cap now lifted and increased impetus from Morgan Sindall I am hopeful that revenues / projects going forward will be somewhat smoother.

[topvest] 10/3/2018 17:58

The problem here is that their projects are always delayed.

[yasx] 10/3/2018 15:20

To illustrate the point, WHI last year penned a note on Sirius Minerals , then in the high teens with a target of 60p. They offered a target price anticipating a more than 100% increase increase in BKY, 440p on JOG against the current 180p and so on.

Of course, these targets are rarely met as I explained and the analysis that accompanies them is in my experience plainly jaundiced. I just point out that I found it rather odd that in the case of ASH not only was their tone and language more reserved but so too was the price projection.

[yasx] 10/3/2018 15:10

Microscope,

I confine the bulk of my investments to largecaps and other instruments. However, I do hold a significant number of smallcaps which form a fraction of the overall portfolio. I rarely if ever pay any attention to broker notes on largecaps other than using them as a contrarian signal. BUt, in my considerable experience, house brokers in tiddlers tend to have targets multiples of the existing price and glowing reports (WHI no exception as you will note from their coverage of a plethora of other plays in the tiddler space). These broker targets are rarely if ever met, but, my point was that if even the company broker is not particularly ebullient, and the wife of the non exec is periodically reducing, perhaps there is some sort of impediment going forward.

We will see. Like I earlier pointed out, am sticking with the stake I currently have.

[microscope] 10/3/2018 14:00

Not to me, not atall. 50% is hardly to be sniffed at either. The 'risk' would be as ever the same, getting new deals. Same for most companies i'd say in all walks of business life. And £4 million recently agreed from MS in my view has removed the worst risks completely, while Scarborough was already known about so hardly a need for them to change the 50% gain target.

If only all my shares had 50% broker target upside, perhaps you have holdings where the brokers are predicting even bigger gains?

[yasx] 10/3/2018 13:33

WH Ireland are Company broker and their comments are not particularly encouraging. I ordinarily ignore broker comments since they are almost invariably useless, but when their own broker refers to this being 'not without risk' and with a target price of a mere 15p, it is not very optimistic (and their own broker must by definition be as optimistic as possible). The purchase of a paltry 31,000 shares the other day does not inspire much confidence either.

I continue to hold since on the numbers it looks rather cheap, but the comment from WHI does make one wonder if there is something amiss.

[18bt] 09/3/2018 13:54

WH Ireland comment on Scarborough:

Ashley House (ASH) – Corporate – Financial close of Scarborough Extra Care scheme
Market Cap £5.9m Price 9.85p
Ashley House has this morning announced that it has reached financial close on its Extra Care housing development in Scarborough. The facility comprises 63 apartments plus communal areas and will be owned and managed by Home Group, with Ashley House and Home Group working in conjunction with North Yorkshire County Council and Scarborough Borough Council to deliver the scheme. The development is being built on a site already owned by Ashley House with residual plots allocated for a housing development and a health scheme expected in due course.
The project has a gross development value of £10m with construction due to commence shortly and completion expected Spring 2019. This was one of the two schemes previously identified that sits outside of the Morgan Ashley JV and an initial payment has been made to Ashley House on reaching financial close.
We view this as positive news for Ashley House, not least given the fact that this is the Group’s first scheme to reach financial close since the Government relaxed its plans to cap housing benefit to the Local Housing Allowance. On the back of the announcement, we leave our 2-year forecasts unchanged (WHI FY 2018E PBT £1.8m/EPS 3.0p, FY 2019E £2.0m/3.5p). Whilst not without risk, with the shares trading on a lowly FY 2018E PER of 3.2x, we see scope for multiples to expand as management executes on its strategy. After a number of challenging years, the future now looks much brighter for Ashley House given the pent up market demand and new found strength through the tie up with Morgan Sindall, which should not only enable the Group to deliver on its existing pipeline but also attract new schemes. Our estimate of fair value for the shares remains unchanged at 15p.

[euclid5] 06/3/2018 10:28

what do pi's here make of the £10m development value on this asset?

[microscope] 05/3/2018 19:17

Another piece of the jigsaw. Good stuff :)

[18bt] 05/3/2018 11:29

This is what AR says about loan on Scarborough: "The Lloyds Bank borrowing on the land at Scarborough is held on a six year loan, which is reducing at the rate of £17,500 per month, although the land will be used in a forthcoming extra care housing scheme at which point some of the loan may be repaid." Loan was £527k at 31/4/17, so presumably only £350k or so now.

[topvest] 05/3/2018 07:47

Better late than never. Took a while didn't it being about 2 months later than planned? Good news though.

[18bt] 05/3/2018 07:27

V positive on Scarborough. Not sure how much profit this releases on the Scarborough land. Think a loan is still secured on it, so presumably being paid off.

[dave4545] 26/2/2018 22:49

281k buy delayed from Friday morning the cheeky market makers !

[dave4545] 23/2/2018 12:01

Holding Rns Landsdown up from 13.75% to 14.46%. Now is that because a lot of pi's have bought Ash over the last few months or is it down to one bigger holder adding stock ?

[microscope] 22/2/2018 22:43

Nice to see a chunky late reported buy of 160,000 at 10.26p. Hopefully a sign of better things to come.

[microscope] 22/2/2018 14:08

Yes good spot re MS guys, well done Spurs with your buy too! I agree that MS are almost certain to be looking at Ashley House. If they like how the 50/50 is going, then I would not be atall surprised if they put in a bid for the company at some point, as Irene suggests, possibly as early as the next few months.

[sikhthetech] 22/2/2018 10:44

Good results from MS...
I was looking for any impact from CLLN collapse, which could have had an impact going forward... MS state:



"The company also addressed the collapse of Carillion, with which it was working with on a number of contracts.

In its report the company stated that it had reviewed the projects and did not expect the projects in question to have a negative impact the company’s finances."

[yump] 22/2/2018 10:34

Yes, that was an interesting read and MGNS appearing to contradict the worries about housing slowdown - part of that concerns the likely growth of the care/supported sector - presumably why they've got more involved.

[irenekent] 22/2/2018 09:33

If the joint venture goes well I wouldn't be surprised if MGNS makes an offer that can't be refused.

[norbert colon] 22/2/2018 07:51

From what at first glance appear to be very good results from MGNS results this morninghttps://www.investegate.co.uk/morgan-sindall-grp--mgns-/rns/final-results/201802220700065876F/"During the year, significant strategic progress was made in widening the range of Investments' partners. Examples include the acquisition of a 50% stake in a joint venture with Ashley House plc, to focus on development activity in the extra care sector and into which Ashley House transferred its pipeline of extra care and supported living schemes, with a development value of £200m to the joint venture".