Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 01/1/2018 18:29

I think we are all generally on the same page and supportive. Not sure they would have got a placing away at anything like 10p though as at that stage they needed cash. On that score, I think you have to give management lots of credit. To have come through the last few years without a very dilutive placing has been very skillfully delivered. Most companies would have decimated minority shareholders already, so well done!

[irenekent] 01/1/2018 18:28

Any of the press tipping these for 2018?

[yump] 01/1/2018 17:42

Hopefully by the time I might need to live in one of the homes, the profits will have multiplied lots !

[cockerhoop] 01/1/2018 17:35

I'm supportive of the management and the route taken to raise funds to develop the pipeline - just stating there has been a dilution. I agree it had to happen to enable development of the pipeline.

You could though make a similar argument that the pipeline would have increased potential had a placing been carried out to raise £4m at 10p for example taking the share count from 60m to 100m.

Hopefully bringing in MS will add more to the venture than other sources of funding would have done and doesn't change the 'social' ethos of ASH which they suggest is helpful in gaining projects.

Anyway here's to a successful year for Antony and the ASH team in 2018.

[norbert colon] 01/1/2018 16:38

With respect to the 'dilution' aspect one needs to consider that although investors will only see profits on the retained 50% of the housing pipeline, the expectation going forward is that the pipeline has increased potential to grow under the JV than it had previously so that will offset in part (or perhaps over time in full) the dilution of the previous profit expectations.

[topvest] 01/1/2018 15:02

Be interesting to see if they closed the couple of big schemes at the end of December. Interim results as we all know will be fairly terrible, but good H2 profits already in the bag as the stake has been sold presumably significantly above book value.

[topvest] 01/1/2018 15:00

Yes, we have obviously been diluted but its a relatively good deal in my view as it takes away lots of the funding risk. This has been a major problem for years. We only get 50% of profit, but that pipeline has now moved forward and so profitability SHOULD flow more quickly than if we had 100% ownership.

[microscope] 01/1/2018 14:41

Fair points guys, but don't dismiss the money, 50% plus 4 million, so hardly massive

[yump] 01/1/2018 13:07

Surely the comparison should be with what profits ASH were likely to get out of 100% ownership, given they would have to find funding in order to progress and if the pipeline is likely to take off, that could have led to actual share dilution if they had to raise money.

So its 50% of something that will go ahead, as against 100% of not sure exactly what...

[cockerhoop] 01/1/2018 12:49

I'm positive on the prospects for ASH but to suggest there's been no dilution is surely wide of the mark. Our ownership of the Extra Care business has been reduced by 50% in exchange for £4m.

[microscope] 01/1/2018 11:41

So we start the year at 12.12p mid price. A market cap just over 7 million, a and with the best prospects for many years. Add in a healthy balance sheet (at last!) achieved without dilution and this is my share for 2018. 25p year end looks modest, but this is AIM and we live in an uncertain environment.Re Mrs Moy, her two previous sales were directly linked to short term loans to the company. This one could be to pay for Christmas for all we know! No reason whatever to think she will be selling all her shares.For what it's worth my other top AIM shares for 2018 are PHSC, GEO and TLY.

[yasx] 29/12/2017 11:30

Bought a few more this week-accumulate while this is off the radar.

[topvest] 22/12/2017 18:47

3rd sale I believe so its a bit of an overhang.

[greedfear] 22/12/2017 16:45

Have not checked but I've got the feeling that this is not the first time mrs. Moy killed the momentum.
Anyway, onwards and upwards!

Merry Christmas all!

[yump] 22/12/2017 15:00

Perhaps some people spend £60K on Christmas - shame I don't know any.

[norbert colon] 22/12/2017 14:43

I understood we were in a close period at the moment so a bit surprised to see any director (or related party) transactions?

[cockerhoop] 22/12/2017 13:49

The RNS states she sold yesterday (21st Dec) so she managed to sell pretty much at the offer which was around 13.25p. Suggests someone keen to get in rather than her keen to get out?

[dave4545] 22/12/2017 13:09

RNS just out Maureen Moy sold 550k at 13.2p. She must have sold them on the spike to 15p otherwise it would have been impossible to get that kind of size out at that price.

[yump] 21/12/2017 16:23

Unfortunately the NHS is an easy target for the press and for anyone that wants to make an issue out of its level of funding, waiting times etc., whereas for anyone who has experienced it (and there are a heck of a lot), the issue of moving an older person out of hospital after an op. is way more important and way more difficult for everyone concerned.

[microscope] 21/12/2017 15:34

Got to agree with Norbert, a valuation of 9 million (15p) can only be 'fair' if your view is short term. Interesting comment from the PM yesterday in select committee that there was too much emphasis on the NHS compared to other aspects of 'social care' which need greater support.Element of 'she would say that, wouldn't she' but certainly seems to have taken the issue to heart which can only be positive for us. The committee seemed to welcome the remarks.

[norbert colon] 20/12/2017 21:26

Topvest. Yes I am expecting financial close on those 2 schemes to be the next news we hear. Why would you want to sell now or saying that at any time now that the black cloud(a) of the last few years are firmly starting to clear?There is very little downside - the only negative I can think of is further uturns / procrastination by Govt over the structure of social rents but my understanding is that there is more than enough confidence for schemes to move ahead now. No issues with finances, big (and growing) pipeline, historically good ROCE.Keen to hear the bear case?

[topvest] 20/12/2017 20:39

I suppose the next news might be financial close on the 2 housing schemes. Bet they are working hard to get these over the line by the end of the year. Lets hope we get a positive RNS on at least one of these before the interims. Interim results will be pretty bad, so this is now the main area of focus. Can't deny that I'm torn between holding or selling, but think the valuation is a tad low at this level. I'd wanted 14-15p.

[verulamium] 20/12/2017 16:50

There can't be many better tips for 2018, now the joint venture's put them on firm foundations. The perfect tip material is something with plenty of upside potential but little chance of plummeting/going under, and that's what we've got here. Might be below most tipsters' radars sizewise though.

[yump] 20/12/2017 16:12

The question is: will it appear in a serious review/tipsheet early new year and go out of sight... should I get some more while its quiet... decisions, decisions

[verulamium] 20/12/2017 11:49

The 2 month share price chart has a camel formation, which is a nice festive touch. Just hope it belongs to the wise man with the gold...I don't like smelly stuff.