Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 05/1/2018 19:24

The Stockopedia forecast was reduced by 2.9p in the last month.

[norbert colon] 05/1/2018 19:24

Hi Dibs. Yes the Board will be investing further in Modular as they appreciate the need to diversify their offering etc.With respect to capacity at present I have to confess I don't know but it's very likely they will have spare capacity. Again the new broker note should clarify this but in the interim it worth keeping and eye on their website:http://www.f1modular.co.uk/

[norbert colon] 05/1/2018 19:20

As investors should have seen from my detailed write up on Stockopedia, a new detailed Broker note is being released this month.The most current detailed note is from 3rd October and has EPS of 3p for 2018 and 3.5p for 2019. The pending results will as we all know not be great but that's historical. The new note will be very useful to put some meat on the bones of the new JV and other matters.

[topvest] 05/1/2018 18:53

Thanks - I do assess quality myself. Its on my checklist. The Stockopedia score is pretty good most of the time. No dividends or real profits in 6 years is NOT a high quality business. Actually the ASH quality score is overstated as its impacted by the 2019 forecast of 3p EPS and we all know their record on meeting forecasts. To be a high quality business you need a durable competitive advantage, pay a dividend and have a high ROC. For what its worth, on qualitative measures, I think management would score highly on "doing the right thing", albeit they have missed their financial forecasts for 6 years running which is not exactly impressive. Government's change policies from one year to the next, so who knows what will happen on that front. I do think Ashley House will pull through.
They are only forecasting 0.1p EPS for the full year per Stockopedia. Given they are booking £3-4m profit on the sale of the pipeline that is a big loss from the underlying trading.
Anyway, will keep watching. You might be correct and best wishes - I hope management succeed. I'm being cautious at this point.

[microscope] 05/1/2018 18:17

Topvest i wish you well, however to rely on stockopedia has little relevance to me. Prefer to make my own assessment.You. say yourself in effect it's a wonder they didn't sink at one point. Many would have - and did. That tells me that management did bloody well, no dilution in the lean years and now 50%, give or take, (small print as discussed) of profits on almost 200 million of projects. Not bad for a company valued at under 9 million even after today's close.I think management are salt of the earth, and have maintained a strong ethical business model. For me, and i accept your frustration and always welcome a contrarian view, management are the type i like on my side. But try not to let the bitterness that can come from an unluckily timed investment take over.Lastly i don't think government will be causing them any more grief.

[nextlink] 05/1/2018 17:20

We can certainly be thankful we don't hold Carillion,
possibly Debenhams and a host of other so called safe
investments.
As you say smaller companies move faster, albeit not
always in the right direction.

[yump] 05/1/2018 17:09

Nextlink

Interesting, I've got OMIP as well and several other small 'risky' shares. One thing I was told years ago was that you never know which ones are going to fail or shine and therefore not to lose heart if they get onto a downward path and not to waste original research, because its the original research which tells you the significance of any developments that might change things completely.

That significance means that if you're brave (or foolhardy!) and you see a positive change, then average down, but only when you know its a proper change, not just because the share price has dropped again. Its painful to do though. Also assumes management are not a load of PR fluff generators. I averaged down on DEMG and anticipate losing that stake. However, when the cap announcement and the recent deal with MS were announced I did take more shares here. Similarly when the 'watershed' type statement from OMIP appeared, did the same there.

Hopefully, those will more than cancel out the other losses.

Turnarounds in small companies are certainly more exciting than larger ones.

[topvest] 05/1/2018 16:56

Quality score of 24/100 on Stockopedia is why it fails the Quality test for me. Management are trustworthy though. As I say good luck. At / near the top of the market I am focusing on moving my cash position closer to 20% and so the inferior quality is going, as and when the opportunity arises. I didn't want to risk the bad interims here.

Interestingly, this share seems to spike on Friday's - like it did a month or so back.

[dave4545] 05/1/2018 16:55

I'd not dwell on him selling too much. Unless he has sold a load and it's still yet to show because delayed the biggest sale today has been 15k or less than £2k

So time to move on

[nextlink] 05/1/2018 16:47

I was recently in a similar position with One Media.
Although they had never had any debt, for around three
years their cash surplus was dwindling and i was sat on a
loss approaching half my investment
As they began to recover, rather than sell, i increased my
holding and am now showing a sizable gain.

[dibs61] 05/1/2018 16:43

topvest - this is an example of where investors get it wrong. Hanging on to what has been a poor investment and waiting in frustration to try and get your money back. The fact its been a poor investment for you is not entirely down to the company management as you are no doubt aware who were severely constrained by govt policy. Often its just bad timing when you buy - thats not the companies fault. I suspect you are already realising you may have made a mistake.

And I definitely take issue with you on the 'insufficent quality' comment. Thats a bit below the belt given the goodwill you've been shown. Explain what exactly that is supposed to mean?

In any case Mr Market doesnt agree with you today and we've finished on a high. I can see this rally extending further next week.

[topvest] 05/1/2018 16:40

Yes, you may be right - maybe too anchored to my average purchase price. I would have held if it passed my quality tests, but it doesn't. Profitability is non existent, the balance sheet terrible and it has questionable durable competitive advantage. Think management have done well though to keep the show on the road. Many other companies would have gone bust in their situation. They have been on the wrong end of poor government decision making for years and that will no doubt continue to a lesser extent.

[dave4545] 05/1/2018 16:31

I've learned from the past that when you sell a stock for break even after for a long time sitting on a loss is a mistake. The relief of getting your money back clouds the current sentiment of the company and it's share price.

But as others say well done in getting out with your money back because that means
when it was 6p you were sitting on a very big loss.

[topvest] 05/1/2018 16:25

I will reassess after the interim results but with getting on for £4M of debt at the half year stage. I think the company urgently needs the £4m to repair its balance sheet. I get £2.5m net debt at the year end +£0.5m interest + at least £1m or so cash outflow in H1. Obviously this will improve with the JV transaction post period end. Not convinced F1 Modular is going to be a profitable investment and we are years away from a dividend, so that's why I lost my patience! Held for too long. Good luck to those that remain. Managed to get out at close to break-even which isn't bad for a very poor investment. Run your winners, cut your losers! Insufficient quality.

[microscope] 05/1/2018 16:21

Never wrong to take a profit topvest, good luck with your other investments.

My own opinion is that you've sold at least 18 months too early.

Not sure what delay you are talking about. They acted swiftly to unlock the vast majority of the portfolio by negotiating the deal with Morgan Sindall, once the cap was lifted, and that will have taken a great deal of management hours. With the Christmas break over, no doubt they will turn their attention to the other two projects.

As to the upcoming results, yes we know they will not make great reading, but that was for a period before the cap threat was taken away, and it is going to mark the start of a very positive future imho.

25p remains my bottom end of 2018 target, and much higher beyond. Timeframes are always tough to get right though in the stock market and it may come more quickly - or slowly - than i envisage, but i can't see any current reason for me to offload shares in 2018.

[dibs61] 05/1/2018 16:15

topvest - a slightly baffling decision but there you go, all the best.

Re the interims the company have already notified the market there will be a loss and unless its a much worse loss than expected it will have no impact. I am very confident the market is now looking FORWARD here not back and the future looks very promising indeed as witnessed by the now improving share price

[dave4545] 05/1/2018 16:13

Each to everybody that decides to sell but how can you lose patience with a stock who's shareprice is flying ???

It's went from 6p to 14p in about 2 months, not sure why anybody would find a fault with that.

I'd lose patience with a stock that has a shareprice drifting or trading sideways
not one with a price that seems to be going places fast.

[topvest] 05/1/2018 15:57

I've sold out. Good luck for those that remain. Too much delay for too long. Lost my patience and don't really want to be holding when the interims get announced at the end of the month. May have sold a little early, if they reach financial close on the two other schemes.

[microscope] 05/1/2018 13:45

James, post away, voted you up :)) Good to see the renewed buying interest, as I've said before i think the journey here is just beginning. Nice article Norbert, thanks.

If anyone remembers Elliott Wave theory, we have only done two(of five) legs up! Obviously this is AIM and a very small company, the usual caveats therefore apply!

[dave4545] 05/1/2018 12:24

Do not give me grief microscope but it's good to know when there is a squeeze now and again in Ash.

You cannot even buy 5000 shares at 14p online.

[dibs61] 05/1/2018 11:58

Interesting article Norbert - thanks for sharing.

I wonder, in view of the anticipated take off in this sector, whether ASH will use some of their cash to invest further in F1Modular? Any idea how many homes they build at present and whether they are anywhere near capacity?

[dave4545] 05/1/2018 11:38

Looking rather good today. 13.9p paid. Wonder if we can retest the highs of 15-15.5p this week ?

[norbert colon] 05/1/2018 09:05

More press coverage of modular housing:https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-modular-homes-could-solve-the-housing-crisis-t5l95mmk7

[dave4545] 05/1/2018 09:00

Overhang must have cleared. 37500 max at 13p or smaller at 12.9p

That is my lot microscope do not panic :-))