Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[microscope] 09/5/2018 21:43

Handy of course, topvest, but the company has moved on now, and is a different animal. Today the market finally cottoned on to what the 4 million from MS and guaranteed income for several years from that tie up mean for the company.

Posters here have realized it for a while, and a forward p/e for 2018-19 of about 4.3 on broker forecast of 3p eps is ludicrous imho, even after today's rise.

It's been pretty much totally de-risked by the MS agreement. Borrowings have been slashed and any new schemes over the coming year are effectively in for free, I could see 3p being comfortably exceeded. We may run into some short term traders taking a quick buck over coming days but the underlying longer trend should this time be firmly established now. I could see over 20p this year and major gains thereafter

All imho of course, and as ever, no advice intended...

[topvest] 09/5/2018 20:30

Nice to see a positive update. Of course, they have only reached this years profit target by including the one-off disposal profit. Nevertheless, nice to see they are turning the corner.

[dibs61] 09/5/2018 14:35

Trading Update:

Very positive
Four schemes reaching financial close in past few months
Debt reduced substantially
Company reached market expectations for full year profit

Even on todays rise this is still excellent value for long term growth

[sikhthetech] 09/5/2018 13:23

Great TU...

[yump] 09/5/2018 11:44

Still going up and there was me fretting a bit about buying more at 11-12p while it was dropping and then carried on down !

microscope

I think there was a bit in the JV statement about the costs being based on fair rate or something similar. Otherwise, either party could effectively draw profit from the JV by over-egging their billing.

[scburbs] 09/5/2018 11:21

Hi Microscope, I don't really follow the WHI projections, but I thought based on previous postings that it was 3p this year (i.e. £3.6m or 6p in H2) and 3.5p next year?

[microscope] 09/5/2018 10:56

Just to clarify the forecast for 2017-April 2018 was 0.1p, but that included the 'historic' loss at interims of 3p, so they will have about 3p second half.

For the new financial year just started (to April 2019) it's 3p eps for the year. I'd be very comfortable with that having read this morning's update as there seem to be plenty other irons in the fire in addition to MS work now. Infact I'd have that very much at lower end of my expectations.

3p eps against a share price of 11p - do the maths! :)

[scburbs] 09/5/2018 10:40

Did they change their forecasts when ASH sold 50% of their pipeline? Not sure their forecasts have been very useful over the years! Current year profits are created by that sale and the write back of a previously impaired receivable rather than the performance of the underlying business.

Despite that it is great to see them back in profit (albeit cash flow suggests a big H2 working capital outflow and/or H2 operating losses) and the future looks promising (as it always does and not without risk!).

[verulamium] 09/5/2018 10:35

Thanks Norbert.

[norbert colon] 09/5/2018 10:31

Yes a new note has been issued with EPS / PBT etc unchanged from the last note but debt rescued by a further £200k.

[verulamium] 09/5/2018 10:26

Anything from the useless WH Ireland this morning? I guess not...

[paleje] 09/5/2018 09:29

Absolutely agree micro, excellent value and as the 'speculative' nature reduces and predictability more assured, the forward PER is silly. Great one to tuck away, even after today's rise it's too cheap.

[mathewawood] 09/5/2018 09:22

Yes. Mkt expectations were for an eps of 3.0p. Now they have been met (much to my surprise to be honest) at a current P/E of 3.9 with debt greatly reduced these still look very cheap even after todays big rise.

[microscope] 09/5/2018 08:59

Excellent update, looks to me like that Peterborough meeting in April which I mentioned and which discussed a young people's social needs unit was indeed the one, meaning it reached financial recognition before year end, and enabling the numbers to April to be met, as the statement refers to (at least pre-tax).

Slight shame we have to wait until October to get that done and dusted, but by then there should be more scheme closures to be reported, more new schemes and the outlook on the basis of today's report should imho be pretty stellar!!

Also the full £4 million has been received from MS, which is great news

The valuation at 11p is still under £7 million. With now over £200 million of projects on the go, albeit the majority 50/50 with MS, the derisking is pretty much complete and the outlook very exciting.

No doubt we've picked up a few 'traders' this morning, but that's the way of the AIM world, and I'm only interested win the medium or long term, and, from memory with WHI predicting 3p eps (share price 11p!!) for the next financial year, that's rosier than it's been for many years.

[yasx] 09/5/2018 08:39

Hope not...

[podgyted] 09/5/2018 08:20

Will Mrs Moy make an appearance today?

[junior21] 09/5/2018 07:05

Very pleasing update. This is too cheap at current prices

[yump] 09/5/2018 06:22

That'll do for me. Anticipation of more schemes closing seems to have come to pass quite quickly !

[elited10] 09/5/2018 06:20

Nice update

[yump] 01/5/2018 13:30

Time for the announcement of an exciting development I think...

[yasx] 18/4/2018 08:03

All rather quiet...

[microscope] 03/4/2018 13:41

Anyone know the address of the Peterborough project? Planning meetings today and 24th...

[3500sr] 29/3/2018 09:15

Buys appearing as sells at the moment