Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 31/1/2018 11:28

scrubs makes good valid points... The 2 big changes - the JV with MS and the government's relaxation of LHA cap derisks the potential 100% downside.... if anything, I think MS will step in before that happens...

[microscope] 31/1/2018 11:25

Dibs no offence and appreciate your contribution to the board always, but I don't find the comments useful atall. So let's assume the closures happen just after year end instead of before. All it means is that this year's numbers will miss.........And next year's will be massive!

[yump] 31/1/2018 11:16

The risk of the 100% downside has been reduced dramatically, so I just don't get those comments. They were more applicable at lower prices, so it would be a raging sell then, if its a sell now. Completely understand that cashing in a profit makes sense if you think the share price has got ahead of itself.

[microscope] 31/1/2018 10:44

Quite happy to put my neck on the line here. The chance of 100% downside is so negligible in my view as in effect to be nil. The company have made it abundantly clear this morning that the benefits are 'when not if'. In their 25+ years in business the company have ably demonstrated an ability to overcome the tough times with nimble management and prudent policies. Even if we have to wait slightly longer than anticipated, I have no doubt that with the 2.5 million recently banked from the MS partnership and another 1.5 million imminent, they will have no trouble whatsoever in managing the transition period successfully.

[dibs61] 31/1/2018 10:41

scburbs - well done you played a blinder with that exit price. That’s also an excellent post. A great contribution to the board, thanks

[nextlink] 31/1/2018 10:27

Interesting viewpoint, particularly valid, the comment on public bodies. However there is not one Publicly Quoted Company listed that does not have a potential 100% downside. On the recent news of a backer with deep pockets, if you listed companies in order of risk of faliure, i believe Ashley would be in a favorable position.

[scburbs] 31/1/2018 10:19

Just in time with the MS JV as TNAV has hit nil (i.e. remove £1.4m deferred tax asset and £415k goodwill and adjusted NAV is £30k), so JV sale will be a timely boost to restore TNAV to a positive number. As a long standing holder I was happy to sell final shares at 14.85p on December spike. There is clearly a massive opportunity here and the shares could easily multi-bag from here, but that has always been the case and it is not entirely clear what the JV does to pipeline delivery pace. Three things for holders to be wary of: "This joint venture, whilst it will take time to evolve, provides a real impetus to the delivery of the current pipeline and establishes a significant platform for our future development and growth capabilities." A slow start for the JV is the last thing they need. This pipeline has been sitting around for a while so they really need the JV to hit the ground running rather than taking time to evolve. "The board remains confident that the Company should achieve its profit expectations for the full year. However risk still remains on the timing of closing of the schemes due to the inherent difficulties of dealing with public bodies." Historically this sort of comment is followed by an indication that insufficient schemes have been closed. Given there is only 3 months to year end the risk seems high despite the confidence of the board. Thirdly, a lot of the cash inflow from MS will go to repay debt. The funding requirements to build out the pipeline are not clear in terms of debt funding vs grants vs funding required from MS and ASH. If any material funding is required from ASH then they will only be able to build out the pipeline slowly (or risk getting diluted by MS). If the JV doesn't need much funding from ASH then the prospects are substantially greater. The potential upside here is massive, but there are still very material risks to the delivery of that upside and downside remains 100% IMV. For investors who are comfortable with multi-bagging upside and 100% downside it is certainly an interesting investment.

[dave4545] 31/1/2018 09:56

Nothing left to gobble up atm, 3 x 25k buys not long ago have left the mm's offering just 10,000 online at 12.44p

[yump] 31/1/2018 09:47

Anyway - back to ASH. After the JV was announced I looked up LLP's and found that the distribution of profits doesn't necessarily follow the proportion of shares, unless of course the profits are all distributed as dividends. Apparently the profit distribution depends on the JV terms. The ASH joint venture has 50/50 ownership, so I checked with them just in case and the whole thing is 50/50 including the profit share. So the implications are correct that if MS were willing to pay £4mln, then they expect to get more than that back and therefore so do ASH. So now I'm trying to decide whether to just gobble up as many shares as I can, in the hope that I might not just be able to retire, but to retire with racing car, yacht etc. etc. in a few years ;-)

[dave4545] 31/1/2018 09:27

Tbh I just sit here and know in theory I could make money on a trade then I realise I will not be able to buy at the low or sell at the high because the mm's will not let us trade so I do not even try these days. When I was younger I put the effort in but now I cannot be bothered because I know it will flash up "no online quote" all the time. Look at ASH they dropped it to 11p but had no intentions of offering a bean online so why the hell do it in the first place. Well they thought some idiots would panic sell at 10.8p on that update when infact the update was quite positive. You have to give them credit for trying. They would take your last pound off you even if it meant you living on the streets. I'm not a fan of them because of past shannigans but I will not go into that.

[yump] 31/1/2018 09:22

Presumably the mm's benefit from what is an artificial volatility, as a result of not doing deals then. ie. if they deliberately keep shares in short supply, demand builds up, so they have to jump the share price a lot to get sellers. Vice-versa for plummeting shares. Surely that was always the way though ? In normal business, wouldn't deliberately suppressing supply be seen as an anti-competitive practice ? Don't answer that - this is the City after all and I suppose we've all decided to take part in the game...

[dave4545] 31/1/2018 09:11

All down to the greed of the market makers. They are the same as bookmakers who now are allowed to close accounts of anybody that wins. The mm's should be forced to bid and offer a minimum amount online at all times, say 10,000 in Ash. It's not like they are not making any money, probably over 500 million I'd say maybe a billion collectively !

[dave4545] 31/1/2018 09:06

yump Over the years it's just got worse and worse. Probably explains why it takes longer and longer to fill or kill orders if everybody cannot buy or sell all the time the dealers are getting clogged up. There is room for more brokers now as Hargreaves is steadily getting worse and worse and tdw now iii is hardly brilliant at times.

[yump] 31/1/2018 08:58

I've had a few issues this week buying shares in smaller companies online - all went through dealers - could just have been online hiccups though.

[cockerhoop] 31/1/2018 08:24

The Morgan Ashley scheme won in Hampshire is a big one approx £18.5m. They certainly need to get more than Scarborough & Peterborough closed to be able to be profitable for the full year so must have other projects expected to reach financial close by the end of April.

[microscope] 31/1/2018 08:12

In line with what those of us here were expecting, with confirmation the agreement is 50/50 with Morgan Sindall. As you say yump they say Scarborough could close as early as this week. and a decent pipeline of opportunities into the bargain.Have left a cheeky buy order for the day but amazed if it gets filled, even with the market initially reacting to the headline figure, rather than the future news, with a small move lower

[dave4545] 31/1/2018 08:08

They must be making a fortune in the second half to reverse that kind of loss to make overall profits Just shows what the business can now do. mm's have got this wrong marking it down although it's impossible to get a buy quote currently at 11p online

[yump] 31/1/2018 08:00

So, the larger scheme Scarborough to close this week and a smaller modular scheme currently in build. Two modulars completed were Consett and Banbury. Two more larger modular schemes mentioned as well. One extra care and a hotel. Apart from the freeing up of the main pipeline, it looks like modular is already moving in a promising direction. So I guess the next lot of news waiting for is for some of the pipeline schemes to start moving.

[yump] 29/1/2018 09:09

Perhaps there's some changes to the agreements, given the MS tie-up.

[topvest] 27/1/2018 18:58

Will be interesting to get an update. Somewhat surprised they haven’t closed the two schemes they promised were short term. Happier out than in, but will keep watching.

[microscope] 26/1/2018 10:28

Could of course be any day up to Wednesday. Does irritate me somewhat when companies leave it to the last day, but seems common market practice.As you say, no need to fret. We know everything has changed since.

[elited10] 26/1/2018 10:12

Don't sweat the figures Dibs...they'll be dire. looking forward this should get a rerate this year similar to ZOO (although maybe not as much). I can only think the reason they're not already a lot higher is that the next figures will be poor and it hasn't yet been gained enough of a following.

[dibs61] 26/1/2018 08:24

So Monday it is then ....

[norbert colon] 25/1/2018 11:49

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4OCgE1CPR8

[norbert colon] 24/1/2018 13:07

Sorry for all the posts with various links but a useful library for us all hopefully:https://www.propertyweek.com/comment/resi-modular-building-is-key-to-solving-the-housing-crisis/5084972.articleResults due shortly.