Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 31/1/2018 09:22

Presumably the mm's benefit from what is an artificial volatility, as a result of not doing deals then. ie. if they deliberately keep shares in short supply, demand builds up, so they have to jump the share price a lot to get sellers. Vice-versa for plummeting shares.

Surely that was always the way though ?

In normal business, wouldn't deliberately suppressing supply be seen as an anti-competitive practice ?

Don't answer that - this is the City after all and I suppose we've all decided to take part in the game...

[dave4545] 31/1/2018 09:11

All down to the greed of the market makers. They are the same as bookmakers who now are allowed to close accounts of anybody that wins. The mm's should be forced to bid and offer a minimum amount online at all times, say 10,000 in Ash. It's not like they are not making any money, probably over 500 million I'd say maybe a billion collectively !

[dave4545] 31/1/2018 09:06

yump

Over the years it's just got worse and worse. Probably explains why it takes longer and longer to fill or kill orders if everybody cannot buy or sell all the time the dealers are getting clogged up. There is room for more brokers now as Hargreaves is steadily getting worse and worse and tdw now iii is hardly brilliant at times.

[yump] 31/1/2018 08:58

I've had a few issues this week buying shares in smaller companies online - all went through dealers - could just have been online hiccups though.

[cockerhoop] 31/1/2018 08:24

The Morgan Ashley scheme won in Hampshire is a big one approx £18.5m.

They certainly need to get more than Scarborough & Peterborough closed to be able to be profitable for the full year so must have other projects expected to reach financial close by the end of April.

[microscope] 31/1/2018 08:12

In line with what those of us here were expecting, with confirmation the agreement is 50/50 with Morgan Sindall. As you say yump they say Scarborough could close as early as this week. and a decent pipeline of opportunities into the bargain.Have left a cheeky buy order for the day but amazed if it gets filled, even with the market initially reacting to the headline figure, rather than the future news, with a small move lower

[dave4545] 31/1/2018 08:08

They must be making a fortune in the second half to reverse that kind of loss to make overall profits

Just shows what the business can now do. mm's have got this wrong marking it down
although it's impossible to get a buy quote currently at 11p online

[yump] 31/1/2018 08:00

So, the larger scheme Scarborough to close this week and a smaller modular scheme currently in build.

Two modulars completed were Consett and Banbury.

Two more larger modular schemes mentioned as well. One extra care and a hotel.

Apart from the freeing up of the main pipeline, it looks like modular is already moving in a promising direction.

So I guess the next lot of news waiting for is for some of the pipeline schemes to start moving.

[yump] 29/1/2018 09:09

Perhaps there's some changes to the agreements, given the MS tie-up.

[topvest] 27/1/2018 18:58

Will be interesting to get an update. Somewhat surprised they haven’t closed the two schemes they promised were short term. Happier out than in, but will keep watching.

[microscope] 26/1/2018 10:28

Could of course be any day up to Wednesday. Does irritate me somewhat when companies leave it to the last day, but seems common market practice.As you say, no need to fret. We know everything has changed since.

[elited10] 26/1/2018 10:12

Don't sweat the figures Dibs...they'll be dire. looking forward this should get a rerate this year similar to ZOO (although maybe not as much). I can only think the reason they're not already a lot higher is that the next figures will be poor and it hasn't yet been gained enough of a following.

[dibs61] 26/1/2018 08:24

So Monday it is then ....

[norbert colon] 25/1/2018 11:49

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4OCgE1CPR8

[norbert colon] 24/1/2018 13:07

Sorry for all the posts with various links but a useful library for us all hopefully:https://www.propertyweek.com/comment/resi-modular-building-is-key-to-solving-the-housing-crisis/5084972.articleResults due shortly.

[sikhthetech] 24/1/2018 13:00

Last 2 yrs, the interims were on 26th Jan, so could be interims this Fri...
The outlook will be crucial...

[yump] 21/1/2018 23:22

Probably not popular enough and too unpredictable for any shorting. The time for that was when it rose on no real news a few times in the past.

All it would take is one significant announcement about pipeline scheme release to put the share price into an unguessable rise.

[microscope] 21/1/2018 14:09

Interims due by the end of the month. Think it will be a moment for hard hats. These were always going to be pretty unpleasant as the cap was still an issue for that whole period.

Hopefully they will make it clear that 'post balance sheet events' have since transformed the company's prospects. As we know they subsequently got £4 million in from Morgan Sindall for the partnership agreement.
No doubt the shorters and scaremongers will have a go, blindly ignoring recent developments as though they hadn't happened....

However I could be wrong, and if the market sees what most of us here see, that the outlook is more important than the historic numbers, then it could easily go up instead. Perhaps just my cynicism making me cautious about that happening!

Hopefully we will get an update on the two projects announced late last year as well.

Even though I am 'overweight' in position in this share, if there is too much of a reaction, I might buy a few more.

[topvest] 18/1/2018 21:25

Taking a while on the 2 schemes that were nearing financial close?

[norbert colon] 18/1/2018 12:51

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/news/government-commits-to-publish-social-housing-green-paper-by-spring-54074

[norbert colon] 18/1/2018 10:39

https://www.constructiondive.com/news/offsite-construction-to-ramp-up-in-2018/514950/ Further modular / sector news.

[norbert colon] 18/1/2018 09:04

This is refreshing and a model that needs to be adopted in England/Wales too:http://www.scottishhousingnews.com/19339/industry-experts-join-housing-minister-promote-offsite-manufacturing/

[norbert colon] 16/1/2018 21:40

I thought it worthwhile to add to my previous posts by providing some information re: F1 Modular, the 76% owned subsidiary of Ashley House. Ashley House first invested in F1 Modular back in May 2016 taking a 52% stake and further supplemented this acquisition by buying a further 24% as announced on 14th March 2017 taking their ownership up to 76%.

The rationale for buying into this business is provided in the RNS’s and primarily allows the Group to further diversify their service offering whilst also benefiting from an increased awareness (and growth) across the construction / real estate sector of the benefits of modular / offsite construction.

The F1 Modular website unfortunately is rather scant on detail but I am aware that the factory has a theoretical capacity of 750 houses / per annum although realistically this is more like 250-400 as stated on the website.

Clearly this sort of capacity turned into actual output would generate revenues in the tens of millions but the challenge is securing projects and funding them etc. The Board need to convert the current losses at F1 into profits and build the business (and its reputation) so that they can secure more (and bigger) schemes going forward. Another challenge is a big one – the industry / clients / LHA's adopting a new construction method (‘change’;) – a useful article is provided here:

hxxps://www.socialhousing.co.uk/comment/comment/modular-building-overcoming-the-funding-and-valuation-challenges-53881

Investors who want to see how profitable a modular housing business can be should take a look at the accounts of Premier Modular Ltd (although they also have a big rental business).

Schemes currently completed by F1 include some housing units in Banbury (Oxford), at least one retail unit for Greggs (the bakers) in Bracknell and 8 new bungalows in Stanley in conjunction with HUSK / Karbon Homes: hxxps://www.karbonhomes.co.uk/news/category/development/new-life-for-lock-ups.htm

With respect to certification of the ‘modules’; produced by F1, I am aware that they have BBA certification - hxxp://www.bbacerts.co.uk/CertificateFiles/54/5407PS1i1.pdf

To answer the question re: CML’s position on MMC (Modern Methods of Construction) my understanding is as provided in the following links:

hxxps://chcymru.org.uk/uploads/events_attachments/Agenda_Tech_Services_Network_14.07.17.pdf

hxxps://www.cml.org.uk/site-search/?keywords=modern+methods+construction+mmc

In summary its rather work in progress from CML and goes back to the point above re: adopting change.

With the demise of Carillion this week and an increasingly strong and persistent push by various factions of the construction industry to “modernise or die”, I feel confident we will see more and more offsite / modular construction in the UK and look forward to further news flow from the Group.

Hope this is helpful….

[cockerhoop] 16/1/2018 20:45

Ok, give Antony Walters the CEO a call. He's very approachable and PI friendly and would obviously answer your questions far better than I could.

The F1 website highlights a scheme whereby they'll locate a factory employing 80-100 people in the local area of a housing scheme of sufficient size.