Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 17/8/2018 20:17

Well done to those still here. Things seem to be looking up.

I can't follow their results at all. What have they done with this one time transaction, as its highly material to the results for the year? It makes it look like the business is now profitable on an ongoing basis, but the profit in the year is generated by this one-time transaction is it not?

"New joint venture

The Company has set up a new limited liability partnership, Morgan Ashley Care Developments LLP ("MACD") into which it is transferring the majority of the pipeline schemes from its Housing division. MSIL has acquired a 50% interest in the new venture for a total consideration of 4 million (the "Transaction"). The Company has today received 2 million in cash from MSIL and will receive a further 500,000 at the beginning of January 2018 with the remaining 1.5 million contingent on certain completion mechanics but expected to be paid in early 2018."

It looks to me like they have taken this through revenue. Not sure that is really correct. Surely it should be calculated as the profit on disposal of a subsidiary as it was stepped down to a joint venture?

[the big fella] 17/8/2018 19:12

Fair summary and why I have picked up a stake today

[microscope] 17/8/2018 18:59

Need to be careful projecting results forward. Company structure is highly complex. Schemes depend on closure dates for revenue recognition and with planning in UK so sluggish, interims and finals can vary a lot. Good to see new blood here :)

Earlier in the thread we figured that MS would need to make at least 1.1 million (edit: annually) to make their investment here break even. Obviously they will expect more than break even, as will Ashley House.

The 496k mentioned earlier gives a clue as to where we might be headed, the figure after only a few months.

Then there are ASH's own projects and that of the subsidiary to add. Management know exactly how to exploit the opportunity with over 20 years experience, and taken together I think 2 million next year would be a fair pre-tax base camp figure. At 30p that would be a pre-tax p/e of 9, with good prospects of a divvy. Hardly demanding.

[tomboyb] 17/8/2018 16:00

Wait for 20s -

I think it is entirely feasible considering -

[the big fella] 17/8/2018 15:33

That is certainly in line with my thoughts.

[dave4545] 17/8/2018 15:29

TBF

Not many stocks can rival MRS for potential profits v small market cap but ASH is right up there. Guess it's all depends if the second half can be repeated or at least half matched.

If they made £1.25 mil second half that would be £3 mil profits v market cap approaching £10 mil.

Amazing value, so many stocks worth £10 mil or more do not even make £500k

[yump] 17/8/2018 15:16

I've been making repeated purchases to add to the lower ones. If this isn't a stock that will double within the next year, just based on results rather than any hype, I don't know what is.

[dave4545] 17/8/2018 15:13

Cannot buy 5000 at 16p online

It's poised for that break out sooner than I expected.

[ileeman] 17/8/2018 14:34

Weekly chart cup and handle pattern. Very bullish.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[yump] 17/8/2018 10:31

Don't know if any useful link/ratio can be concluded from this but accounts are showing 491K from share of joint venture profits. Ryde scheme first phase is worth £18mln. So perhaps some idea of the profits that might flow out from the pipeline ? ie. Ryde scheme first phase is the only one that profit could have come from.

That would make sense of MS paying £4mln, which was I remember discussed on the other thread, as to why they would pay that amount up front.

[microscope] 17/8/2018 09:37

Cheers Sikh, but I think the credit goes to people in the previous thread, where i first saw the news of the government change too, and decided it was perhaps time to start a new thread.

The numbers are just great imho, especially as they made a loss at interims if i recall - about 3p a share, wasn't it? - so a second half pre-tax profit of something close to 6p. Analysts were forecasting a small pre-tax profit for the year just reported, certainly nothing like though the nearly 3p they made for the full year.

Obviously that huge second half can be put down in large part to the MS agreement and government policy change, and while I wouldn't project that forward as a figure to work from (the statement actually says it should not be used as an indicator), nevertheless it shows the vast potential that the deal with MS has given the company going forward.

I think it is now high time the analysts had another look and reassessed their forward projections.....

[yump] 17/8/2018 08:22

Wonder where the first new coverage will come from - would have thought its certain to be spotted, but not an easy stock to get to grips with if you're new to it. Microscope's header should help.

Even if you just stick a p/e of 10 onto whatever the forecast ends up being for 2019 (last one I saw was just over 3p earnings), the share price ends up way higher. I suppose people get used to seeing smaller stocks floundering and never really recovering, so ASH will be a bit of a double-take.

Think I might sell my INL and get some more - that stock really doesn't seem to have any permanent friends although solid enough.

[yump] 16/8/2018 18:37

Often seems a matter of luck if you happen to spot things like that - if you're not keeping daily track of all your shares. I suppose ideally, you'd have a note somewhere to keep an eye on policy change, given that ASH had been held back for so long by it and the potential impact of a change. Nice to have a positive change - many of mine have been negative eg. holding 2 gambling shares when the tax thing was announced a few year ago that knocked their future profit forecasts for six.

[sikhthetech] 16/8/2018 18:30

yump..

"the government's change in policy."

I think it was Micro who mentioned it and yes, it also interested me...

[yump] 16/8/2018 18:02

Well its the middle of summer, so if there is any 'quiet' time in which to sneak a largish holding, before it gets analysed to death and then 'discovered', this is probably it.

This is one of the few BB's that has been very useful to me as somebody posted re: the government's change in policy back when it was announced at 6-8p. Without that I would have missed it despite having had some shares earlier in the history. So whoever it was, thanks for that - I happened to spot it on the day !

[dave4545] 16/8/2018 11:15

dave454522 Nov '17 - 11:29 - 69 of 422 Edit

0 1 0
I'm cool with it microscope.

I have a free ride having bought as low as 6.1p. Still think it's good to know when
mm's have a real squeeze on so people do not bail too early and help them out.

[dave4545] 16/8/2018 11:11

lol

I'm in from 6p you are in from 15p :-))

I banked a free ride and posted I did many moons ago.

I'm very relaxed with it.

[ileeman] 16/8/2018 11:09

Good to see I still have followers Dave, must be doing something right.

I dont trade much but sure I am looking for 20p+, unlike you I dont care about the time I care about targets that is why I know you are not good at this game.

Lovers or haters good to see people care so much about what I am doing. Turn those haters into lovers.

[norbert colon] 16/8/2018 11:08

Brief update to my previous stocko write up:https://www.stockopedia.com/content/ashley-house-plc-ash-a-shareholder-friendly-recovery-situation-150650/

[microscope] 16/8/2018 11:04

Absolutely Dave. The traders never learn. All the mms will likely do is what they usually do. Widen the spread for a few days until they're out for a loss, or a miniscule profit.

There's a lot to absorb in these results, and it might take a day or two for me to go through them properly, but on a first read it's impossible not to be excited and pleased. The prospects look to me better than for as long as I can remember and I expect a gradual but substantial rerating over the next 6-12 months.

[ileeman] 16/8/2018 10:54

Another 30k buy at 16p is mine, next lot will be on the pullback.

[tomboyb] 16/8/2018 10:23

QS99 -

Leverage is reducing all levels -

Clearly shows on the balance sheet i reckon this could hit 20p+ at some stage -

[dave4545] 16/8/2018 10:05

Too quiet a stock for a trader like you Lee

It will burn a hole in your pocket when the price goes through it's lull and you can use the money to trade elsewhere so I doubt you will stick around for long.

Agree on the 20-25p though, it will get there, but maybe not in your time frame.

Stunning results all the same.